APC DECIDES: I FORSEE ATIKU VICTORY THOUGH A BITTER PILL

NB:This article is not to portray the writer as a Buharist or Atikumaniac but it is an attempt to predict the winner of the APC ticket

All is now set for the much awaited APC national convention holding at Teslim Balogun Stadium in Lagos, where the presidential flag bearer of the APC will emerge. There are five contenders for this ticket(Muhammadu Buhari, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwanso, Rochas Okorocha, Sam Nda-Isaiah) but the showdown is actually between former military head of state General Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar. The pedigree of these two men is well known and they need no much introduction.

Buhari’s campaign has been largely premised on a stern, uncompromising, disciplined, incorruptible junta-turned-politician with astute hatred for corruption. This has become a brand name for Buhari and he appears to be the only high profile figure in APC that has given it much credibility.He is marketed as having a massive following among the downtrodden poor in northern Nigeria having garnered over 12million votes on 2 previous presidential elections despite alleged massive PDP-rigging machinery, his lean purse and incumbency factor against him. His electoral value in northern Nigeria is not in doubt but he had less than a million votes in the whole southern Nigeria in those two elections. Suffice to mention that Buhari had never contested any primary before and had always emerged as a consensus candidate. But the reality of December 11, 2014 is that he has to cross the hurdle of party primary before he can endear himself to his followers at the poll.

Atiku on the other hand is the most powerful former Vice-president under Obasanjo era. He too has taken a shot at the highest office in 2007 against the odds of the commando-like despotism of his boss Olusegun Obasanjo who appropriated to himself the powers of the legislature, judiciary and executive which he unleashed against his deputy Atiku Abubakar. Obasanjo in his junta style declared the office of Vice-President vacant and barred Atiku Abubakar from contesting the presidential election. Atiku, a dogged fighter, trounced his boss and INEC a few days to the general election by securing a landmark judgement at the highest level the Supreme Court that finally paved the way for him to have his name on the ballot for the 2007 presidential election. Under this circumstance, he polled 3million votes with less than 2 weeks of campaign. In 2011, he emerged the Ciroma-driven consensus northern PDP presidential candidate to contest the presidential primary against an incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. It is noteworthy that he beat political heavyweights like Gen Aliyu Gusau, Bukola Saraki and the maradona of Nigerian politics IBB to clinch the preferred nomination of the North. Against Jonathan at the primary, he got 1/3 of delegate votes.

From the foregoing Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is indeed a huge political heavyweight that cannot be ignored. He is a master of politics, tutored by experience and a politician that understands the Nigerian terrain. APC leadership who is rooting for Buhari may get a shocker of their life as Atiku may emerge the winner. Atiku is known to have been in the political terrain for a very long time (over 2decades) and he understands the system very well. He is used to the manoeuvring, the horse trading, the pressure, intricacies and the propaganda of the political set-up; he is never a neophyte. Moreover he has countless political friends spread across party lines, religious, ethnic and geographical divides, who can pull strings for him. Many of them are his political associates of many years, business friends/partners and employees. Thus Atiku has a well established political structure spread across Nigeria made of political employees, media owners/propagandists, political loyalists etc who will die for an Atiku course.

Another selling point of Atiku is the huge war-chest of resource at his disposal. He prosecuted the 2007 campaign singlehandedly and also the presidential primary in 2011 from his pocket without going broke. He has so much to spare. In 2011 PDP presidential primary, it was reported that money changed hands and that the least delegate got 10,000 US dollars and Atiku was able to get nearly 1000votes out of over 3000. Politicians are entrepreneurs whose business is politics and at every juncture money and power are the ultimate. APC delegates who are politicians are waiting to reap as much money from this convention. Under this situation Atiku is the man to beat, and Buhari is no match for him. It was reported that Buhari appealed to delegates during one of his tour to shun politics of money bags. But I think it was sermon for deaf ears who all they care is money, money, money, money. Among the delegates, there is nothing like vote according to conscience. For them politics is a marketplace and they have come to make returns; too bad for Buhari. Buhari I don’t think has any cult following among this crop of money-hungry politicians. In 2011, Atiku succeeded in booking all the 5 star hotels in Abuja leaving the president stranded with his delegates to use guest houses/lodges and this too was part of the political strategy.

It is also important to note that the only odds against Atiku is the leaning of the national leadership of the party to the candidacy of Buhari. No incumbency factor, no money bag like him, no judicial obstacles, no open voting etc. Under the 2011 PDP presidential primary, ballot papers were apportioned serially per state and a ballot box for each state. It was an open intimidation and many delegates who feared the wrath of Aso Rock/governors had no choice but to vote Goodluck Jonathan. It is a different story for APC where secret ballot will be used and beneficiaries of Atiku purse will be there to reward him handsomely without fear of victimization.

I am looking forward to a keen contest as a few hours ago the 12 APC governors have endorsed Buhari as the preferred candidate. But will this endorsement translates to all delegates from their respective states voting Buhari? This is difficult to guarantee as voting will be secret and many of them are smiling from the booties of Atiku’s nationwide tour. Already votes from Imo and Kano will go to their respective states governors who are also contestants. Where Atiku will pull the most votes is from the other 23 states where there are non-APC governors. Voting will be on individual basis as no central control over party machinery in those states; the highest bidder will carry the day. I see Atiku thrashing Buhari convincingly from South-South and South-east states except Imo and Rivers. However Buhari will get bloc votes from SouthWest delegates.

Should Atiku lose under unacceptable conditions, I see him contesting the presidential election under another political platform(say PDM) which is waiting to endorse him as their candidate. This he will claim he was called to serve and not that he decamped. Should Buhari lose, he may not contest the result but Atiku as a flag bearer of the party is a baggage that will be difficult to sell at the general poll. In fact for Atiku camp, APC is Atiku Presidential Campaign.

APC BEWARE

GOD SAVE MY COUNTRY