The Change We Expect Now That Gen. Buhari Will Be There -By Uduak Akpan

The events of the past week in the Nigeria’s political space have been very interesting and intriguing. Finally, change has come! Therefore, I start this piece by congratulating President Jonathan for being the first agent of change by insisting on creating a level playing field for all political parties in Nigeria’s political space; insisting on free, fair, and credible elections; not interfering with INEC; and accepting the outcome of the election. I also congratulate Gen. Buhari for putting up a good fight and eventually being elected as President.

“To whom much is given, much is expected”, goes a popular saying. Indeed, Nigerians expect a lot when Gen. Buhari is eventually sworn-in as the President and takes full charge of the affairs of the country. Before we get carried away by the euphoria of change, it is important to note that a change in guard in the presidential villa and government offices will not necessarily lead to a change in the socio-economic situation of most Nigerians. Those who understand the dynamics of change in a liberal democracy will know that change is a gradual process that takes a long time. Moreover, change is multidimensional and real change has to incorporate attitudinal, structural, systematic, and policy change. Will the change in government lead to attitudinal change in the polity? Yes. Will it lead to structural and systemic change? May be. Will it lead to policy change? Yes, but only in a few sectors of the economy. The main crux of this opinion piece is to provide a brief overview of the change Nigerians are expecting from Gen. Buhari when he becomes the President.

One of Gen. Buhari’s main campaign mantra was fighting corruption. Nigerians expect that with Gen. Buhari in the helms of affairs, there will be attitudinal change with respect to how government carries out its business. However, in a liberal democracy, Gen. Buhari cannot jail anyone and any conviction has to go through the tedious judicial process. The question now is whether there will be systematic and structural change in the judiciary arm of government given judiciary independence. Therefore Nigerians may be highly disappointed if a corruption case is adjourned for several months. Nevertheless, there are several low-hanging fruits that will cement Gen. Buhari’s stance on corruption. One of these is the jumbo pay packs of the members of the national assembly. Members of the APC will be the majority in the Senate and House of Representatives and Nigerian’s will expect them to lead by example by approving the reduction of their allowances. Will this be possible? Only time will tell.

The second campaign mantra of Gen. Buhari will be the issue of insecurity in the country. Here, we note that the Boko Haram menace is only a part of the insecurity problem. On the Boko Haram manace, even if Gen. Buhuri may eventually bring the fight against Boko Haram to a decisive end, it will likely not be immediate because guerilla warfare is never an easy type of war. Moreover, there will likely be two legs of media propaganda here. Any delays in decimating Boko Haram may be looked at as Gen. Buhari not keeping to his campaign promises and people will wonder the right he had to criticize his predecessor. On the other hand, in the event of the defeat of Boko Haram, people may also say that Boko Haram has been proven to be a tool by northern elite to frustrate a president from the minority. In terms of other levels of insecurity, Nigerians will be expecting a reduction in armed robbery incidences, kidnapping, etc. Can Gen. Buhari achieve this in the short or medium terms? May be. This will involve increase in funding for the police and civil defense and any such increase in funding will imply a reduction in funding to other sectors. One thing is however certain; there will be attitudinal change among the ranks and files in the police and in-turn a reduction in the incidences of police harassment.

On the economy as a whole, what are we expecting in power, oil and gas, agricultural, education, trade, health, etc. sectors. Well, Nigerians expect improved power supply. However, the Gen. Buhari’s government will have very little impact on the power sector. A policy change in the power sector will cripple the entire power sector reform process which has been going very well. Gen. Buhari’s government will not have much impact on the power sector since most activities in the sector are out of government’s control even though a reduction in the spate of destruction of gas pipelines due to increased security will boost electricity supply. For the oil and gas sector, Nigerians expect to buy kerosene for N50 naira as against N130. Nigerians expect that under Gen. Buhari, the refineries will be working at maximum capacity and Nigeria will no longer be importing petroleum products, and in-turn, there will be need to pay subsidies and the subsidy cabal will die a natural death. Nigerians expect not to queue for hours to get PMS (petrol) or AGO (diesel). This is one area Gen. Buhari may have the greatest impact given that the government is fully involved in the sector. However, any meaningful change will take time.

On industries, trade and investment, Nigerians expect that the cost of doing business in Nigeria will reduce and local entrepreneurs will be able to nurture their businesses to be competitive internationally. This is possible but it will take a long time given the cost of developing infrastructure. The present administration has already done a good job in creating an enabling policy framework in this regard. The educational sector will also take time to blossom because any meaningful change in the sector has to start from the basics (primary and secondary) therefore Nigerians expecting much in these sectors may be disappointed. Nigerians are expecting that Nigeria will cease importing basic agro-commodities during Gen. Buhari’s tenure. The policy framework of the Goodluck’s administration has already set this on motion therefore Gen. Buhari will do will to develop on the foundation in place.

In all, change is not an event but a process, and change in a liberal democracy is even a much slower process. Nigerians expect a lot from Gen. Buhari, but my understanding of the Nigerian economy, the laws, and the policy frameworks, and the opportunistic nature of the average Nigerian has taught me to be optimistic with caution because change does not happen overnight. Indeed, where there are vested interests who will insist on all constitutional rights and liberties, the process of change becomes a hard and tortuous one. I wish Gen. Buhari the very best as he gets set to contribute his quota to Nigeria.

Uduak Akpan is a researcher and public commentator