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TINUBU DECIDES: BUHARI WINS APC TICKET

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‘The winner is General Muhammadu Buhari’, these were the words of APC Presidential Electoral Chairman Dr Kayode Fayemi at exactly 6:00pm on 11th December 2014 at the end of votes counting. This is no longer news. This was an announcement I waited patiently to hear though the final result defied my prediction of Atiku’s victory. Even though the PDP and APC conventions were going on simultaneously, I was far more anxious to hear the outcome of APC ticket than the PDP’s which was fait accompli already. I was glued to the news both print and electronic to get a glimpse of the most likely outcome. Finally the announcement came declaring Buhari the winner having polled over 3400 votes(more than 50%) of votes cast. ‘Sai Buhari’ rent the air and it was all wild jubilation for the Buharists at the convention ground and in the North. In fact the Arewa Consultative Forum on Friday 12th December 2014 through its Chairman Alhaji Commassie has come out to endorse the candidature of the formidable General.

As I watched the ensuing political drama and antics that foisted this outcome, one thing stands out and that is the role of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinunu, former governor of Lagos State. If I were to institute an award for the Politician of the 4th Republic(from 1999 till date), I will give it to Bola Tinubu for the political empire/influence he had acquired over the last 15years. I don’t know of any politician living in Nigeria today who had emerged from such obscurity to become so powerful that he is courted by every influential politician from the North and Southwest. As it is now he wields more influence after leaving office as governor. He singlehandedly and successfully stood up to Obasanjo’s deceptive political manoeuvring and PDP onslaught in 2003 general election enabling him to be the sole survivor among the AD governors who started  in 1999. He was able to escape the hammer of Obasanjo and won re-election to retain his seat as governor of Lagos while his party governors in Ekiti, Osun, Oyo, Ondo and Ogun crashed out of office. Through his political gimmicks he installed his performing successor and the PDP is yet to taste power in Lagos, one of the few states to have eluded the PDP for many years. He is feared in the Southwest and the governors are at his beck and call(except Ondo). His firm grip of Southwest political structure is not in doubt. Again he demonstrated this by trouncing the incumbent governor Babatunde Fashola’s candidate in the Lagos gubernatorial primary to deliver the ticket for his own anointed Ambode.

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It is this political clout that Tinubu has deployed to give Buhari victory in the just concluded APC presidential primary. From inception of APC, the de facto presidential candidate of the APC is Buhari but Tinubu has never voiced this though his body language has been too obvious. However he could not bar the likes of Atiku, Kwankwanso from contesting as he needs their membership to shore up the profile of his newly formed party. He lord it over his political stronghold of Southwest to swing delegate votes in favour of Buhari. In fact he used the PDP-styled means of endorsement by proxy through the influence of the governors who came out openly to throw their weight behind Buhari. The timing of the endorsement was strategic, deliberately done on the first day of the convention when delegates were already gathered. This created a bandwagon effect and the momentum was unstoppable. The announcement from the 12 governors gave the impression that the party has chosen Buhari and independently minded delegates had to change their mind to key into the party’s plan. The national leadership of the party had to use the governors to make the announcement. Had the endorsement come directly from the National Working Committee, the party and convention would have been torn into shreds from the political logjam. It would have been accused of imposition. The end result is better imagined than experienced.

The PDP actually helped the APC by pointing out their likely implosion after the presidential primary, which made the APC leadership embark on crisis prevention and management strategy. This included the option of consensus candidate which was to be purely voluntary. When this one failed they extracted commitment from the presidential candidates not to destroy the party should one of them emerge in exchange for a ‘transparent’ ballot at the convention.  Due to this commitment the candidates who lost out could not reacts rashly following the endorsement of the party’s governors. By this Tinubu achieved two objectives at the same time-fieding his anointed candidate Buhari and keeping the party intact without the usual post-primary acrimony that would have derailed whole process.

While I still continue to be puzzled by the political drama at the convention, I have tried to ponder on why Tinubu opted for Buhari instead of any of the other candidates. I have the following propositions:

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  • Looking at the Buhari military regime, the actual power behind the throne was his ingenious deputy Idiagbon not Buhari. For this reason, Tinubu would have foreseen a similar leadership style at Aso Rock and since his Vice-President will be handpicked by the Tinubu-led APC, the APC political czar will remote control the Presidential Villa by proxy.
  • I also think that Buhari does not have so much political clout and can be controlled by political manoeuvring and set-up both at the party level and National Assembly. But Tinubu will fear an Atiku presidency who will deploy the power of his office to hijack every party structure and send Tinubu into political limbo. This desperation for power was seen under his tenure as Vice President when he almost upstaged his boss Obasanjo from whom Tinubu had to consult severally before making a final decision on his preferred choice.
  • I am also of the opinion that he chose Buhari over others because of his tested electoral value. Buhari polled over 12 million votes in 2011. To field any of the other candidates was to make an electoral gamble. He could easily market Buhari who had a clean record against the background of a wise counsel by Olusegun Obasanjo to field a candidate with flawless past.
  • I am suspicious that Buhari was chosen because Tinubu may be scheming to benefit from the power play that will ensue should Buhari fail to complete his tenure as he is currently too old(now 72years); a replica of Musa Yar’adua/Jonathan Goodluck scenario may happen again. Though the power of life and death rest with God, it is risky to begin a presidential tenure at 72years,an age group Obasanjo called departure lounge, as he MAY die in office(he would be 80years after two tenure). If this happens the North would be the loser.

Thumb up for Tinubu who has evolved into a political genius, a kingmaker in Nigeria and we are yet to witness the best(or worst whichever one you choose) of this Lagos-based politician. Are we witnessing the emergence of another political maradona in Nigeria or shift of political gravity? Only time will tell.

GOD SAVE MY COUNTRY

 

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