2025 Budget Faces Pressure as FG Records 18.9% Shortfall in Oil Production

Seven months into the execution of the 2025 Appropriation Act, Nigeria’s crude oil production has fallen short by 82.46 million barrels, representing an 18.88% deficit compared to the Federal Government’s projected output.

According to the latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country produced 354.26 million barrels of oil between January and July 2025, well below the 436.72 million barrels budgeted for the same period.

The 2025 budget was based on an ambitious daily oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) and a price benchmark of $75 per barrel to fund government spending.

Month-by-month NUPRC data revealed consistent underperformance:

• January: 53.86 million barrels produced vs. 63.86 million target
• February: 44.81 million barrels vs. 57.68 million
• March: 49.72 million barrels vs. 61.80 million
• April: 50.50 million barrels vs. 63.86 million
• June: 50.91 million barrels vs. 61.80 million
• July: 53.08 million barrels vs. 63.86 million

Although crude production slightly improved in June and July, output remained below target. July’s average daily production rose to 1.712 million bpd, a 0.88% increase from June’s 1.697 million bpd, but still fell short of the 2.06 million bpd budget target.

NUPRC also reported that peak daily production in July reached 1.84 million bpd, with a low of 1.66 million bpd. Notably, average daily crude oil output (excluding condensates) stood at 1.507 million bpd, slightly exceeding Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd at 100.5%.

The World Bank, in its recent Nigeria Development Update, had previously flagged the federal budget’s assumptions of 2.1 million bpd and $75 per barrel as “ambitious,” raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal projections amid production constraints.