A Look At The Tinubu’s Broadcast And Proposed Palliatives Measures -By Gozie Irogboli

After the nationwide broadcast by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Monday, 31^st July, 2023, a friend who is an ardent supporter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) called and announced ecstatically that the presidential speech was loaded. And I answered in affirmative but bluntly told him that the speech of course was loaded with nothing. It does not take a genius to know that it is another round of political gimmick designed to buy time. The sound bites from the speech as in the previous ones since his swearing-in as the president of the country on 29^th May, 2023 are clearly vague and uninspiring. For all intents and purposes, Tinubu’s latest speech smirks of deception and a desperate attempt to douse the brewing tension in the polity occasioned by the subsidy removal controversies.

The speech which was made ostensibly to announce measures and plans by the government to address the hardship brought on Nigerians by the vexed issue of the removal of fuel subsidy ended up exposing how clueless and unprepared the current regime is for governance for there are glaring inconsistencies and mismatch contained in the measures reeled by in the speech.

Coming after the nationwide criticism of the fuel subsidy removal was a clear indication that Tinubu was not prepared for governance ab initio as many have always pointed out. Much as the removal of fuel subsidy is deemed necessary, it would have been done in phases with policy measures at every stage to cushion the effect and ensure seamless implementation of the program. Also, because of this haze surrounding the proposed palliative program as announced, many are insinuating that it was deliberately planned not to work and that it is an avenue created to settle political loyalists and cronies that worked for Tinubu during the controversial February 25^th Presidential Election. And while the supporters of the regime are delirious about the subsidy palliatives plan, the critics believe it is a mere statement of intentions without feasibility plan. And to others, it is nebulous, diversionary and therefore prone to corruption.

I have noted it elsewhere in the past that government policy formulation is a serious business because of its effects on the people and should be taken with utmost seriousness. Government policies are formulated with technical feasibility in mind; with clearly defined strategies for implementation, with specified deliverables and fall back plans. But in this part of the world, the government has taken policy decisions as mere perfunctory exercises undertaken to fulfill all righteousness. Tinubu’s trial and error method of grappling with policy decisions shows unpreparedness for governance and portends great danger for the nation already impoverished by question policies and ineptitude of the immediate past regime.

Evidently, the measures reeled out by Asiwaju are replete with hurdles and glitches too obvious to ignore. The new measures on the surface may appear good but it is significantly not different from the previous one. Essentially, it appears that what Tinubu and his ad hoc team did was to hastily string together without adequate analysis and engagement the various suggestions put forward by the critics of his earlier policy to distribute freebies to 12million families in the name of palliatives.

Indeed, Tinubu and his team have not demonstrated that they have grasp with the procedures for policy formulation and implementation. They have also shown that they are not acquainted with issues and problems confronting the country. And procedurally, it is obvious that there was no proper stakeholders’ engagement before Tinubu and his team came out with the latest palliatives policy. There is no input from organized private sector neither was there any from the organized labor.

Tinubu stated in his speech that the government has saved over one trillion Naira since the removal of the fuel subsidy. And if that is true, where is the money and why is the government still borrowing for palliatives? It was stated that 75 companies will get one billion for the purpose of creating jobs. This sounds like political settlement to me. How would the president identify 75 business entities that would be given one billion Naira each? Businesses that can generate one billion Naira cash-flow certainly would not have any problem assessing bank loan for banks would be the ones looking for such clients. What they would need is enabling environment for their businesses to thrive—business infrastructure, efficient power supply, tax concession, protection and other incentives—that the Tinubu did not address in his speech. How would government isolate just 1300 nano enterprises to benefit from the N50000 soft loan? And, what can N50000 grants do for any business in present-day Nigeria? This is analogous to the Osibanjo’s ill-conceived Trader Moni Program that was generally appraised to be a scam. Also, what impact would 3000 units of 20-seater bus have on a population of over 200million people? What impact would it have on the cost of transportation? Will the operators get their fueling at a different price?

Again, which agency of the government will oversee the implementation of this incongruous program?  When Gen. Sani Abacha increased fuel price from N5 to N11 in 1994, he created the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) as an intervention development agency to implement the policy. When President Goodluck Jonathan removed the fuel subsidy in 2012, he created Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Program (SURE-P) and put a respected technocrat, Dr. Christopher Kolade in charge.

Clearly, Tinubu’s program falls short of the people’s expectation. Nigerians expect a functional economic team, a comprehensive economic development plan that will not only address the fuel subsidy conundrum but the whole economy. Nigerians want to know the government policy direction, the strategies, the deliverables and expected timelines. We do not know why very few entities would be considered for the government palliatives. How would the effect trickle down to all economic entities? When will the salary adjustment mentioned in the speech be done? Is there any plan in place and what about the pensioners whose fixed income has been eroded by the galloping inflation in the country? The president speech was silent about the infrastructural issues, power and energy crisis, the plans for the moribund refineries, the steel sector revitalization as well as other macro-economic issues. The government cannot be talking about boosting agricultural productivity without addressing the security challenges. We cannot put the cart before the horse. At best the policy could be pictured as an ad hoc arrangement. But Nigeria at present has an ingrained economic problem that should not be treated with ad hoc measures.

From what we have seen so far one can state unequivocally Tinubu has no well-thought-out plan or program for the nation except phantom statements of intentions. And it is ironical that the man who called a former president clueless is manifesting the worst signs of cluelessness. The APC regime since inception in 2015 has acquired the notoriety as a government of propaganda that cannot keep its promises. And it seems the Mr. Tinubu is poised to tow the line of Buhari to govern the nation with propaganda, subterfuge and phantom promises.

Gozie Irogboli
goziei@yahoo.com
An economist, a novelist and a public policy analyst.