AFCON 2025 Round of 16: Hidden dangers loom on Super Eagles’ road

On paper, Nigeria should be cruising into the quarter-finals. Three wins from three matches, a perfect nine points, and the confidence of a side widely tipped for the title.

But as Monday’s AFCON 2025 Round of 16 clash with Mozambique draws closer, a sense of unease hangs over the Super Eagles camp.

Head coach Eric Chelle is refusing to be carried away by Nigeria’s flawless group-stage record. Instead, he is bracing for what could be a carefully laid ambush.

Mozambique barely squeezed into the knockout rounds as one of the best third-placed teams and only recently celebrated their first-ever AFCON victory. Nigeria, meanwhile, are three-time African champions chasing a fourth title. Yet history has repeatedly shown that tournaments are littered with favourites undone by underdogs, and several key factors have turned this tie into a potential banana skin.

The danger of perfection and memories of 2021

Nigerian supporters know this script all too well. In 2021, the Super Eagles also swept through the group stage with three wins from three, only to be shocked by Tunisia in the Round of 16 — a defeat that became a defining moment in Maduka Okoye’s international career.

That experience underlines the psychological risk facing Nigeria. Mozambique arrive with little pressure and growing belief after exceeding expectations. Nigeria, by contrast, carry the heavy burden of national hopes. Fearless outsiders, history suggests, can be the most dangerous opponents.

Injuries threaten Nigeria’s structure

The final group win over Uganda delivered maximum points but came at a cost. Nigeria’s medical team has confirmed setbacks that limit tactical options.

Ryan Alebiosu suffered a serious leg laceration and has been ruled out of the remainder of AFCON 2025. Cyriel Dessers is struggling with a thigh injury and remains doubtful, reducing attacking alternatives if the initial plan stalls.

With Ola Aina also unavailable, Nigeria’s wing-back areas — central to Chelle’s system — have become vulnerable. Mozambique are expected to target these weak spots.

Geny Catamo, Mozambique’s key weapon

While Ademola Lookman continues to dominate headlines, Mozambique have their own game-changer in Sporting CP winger Geny Catamo.

Catamo announced himself with a stunning goal against Cameroon and followed it up by playing a central role in Mozambique’s historic 3-2 win over Gabon. Blessed with pace, technical quality and an eye for exploiting defensive lapses, he poses a serious threat — especially against Nigeria’s injury-hit right flank.

Recent meetings offer little reassurance

Nigeria’s overall record against Mozambique is strong, with four wins in five meetings. However, their last competitive encounter was far from comfortable, requiring a 95th-minute goal to secure a narrow 1-0 victory.

Mozambique have shown throughout this tournament that they can absorb pressure and strike decisively on the counter — a formula that has undone many stronger sides in AFCON history.

The yellow-card dilemma

Discipline could also play a decisive role. Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman and Semi Ajayi are all one booking away from missing a potential quarter-final clash with either Algeria or DR Congo.

The challenge is mental as much as tactical: play cautiously to stay available for later rounds and risk dulling their edge, or go all-in and risk suspension. Either option carries significant consequences.

Nigeria clearly boast superior quality, experience and pedigree. Mozambique counter with belief, fearlessness and the sense that they have nothing to lose.

If the Super Eagles fail to assert control early, allow nerves to creep in, or give the crowd reason to believe, this contest could become one of AFCON 2025’s defining upsets.

Eric Chelle’s side may be the stronger team on paper. The pressing question is whether they will also be the hungrier one when the whistle sounds in Morocco.

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