Analysis: Oyo 2023; Who will take over Akala’s vote bank in Ogbomoso? -By Alabi Quadri

For the first time since 1996 Akala will not be in electioneering processes in Oyo State politics and second time of not been on ballot since 2007. The late Akala, had been consistently amazing huge votes in Ogbomoso even if he lost elections. Since Akala is no more alive who will take over his vote bank in Ogbomoso? 

Alao Akala and Ogbomoso politics

Late Alao Akala “Omo Iya Alaro” as he was widely called in Ogbomoso during his lifetime joined Politics (Ogbomoso Politics) in 1996 after a successful career in the Nigeria Police Force. He contested for chairmanship of Ogbomoso North Local Government under the zero party arrangement, but lost. In 1997, he recontest on the platform of United Nigerian Congress Party (UNCP) for the same position (LG Chairman), he lost. He also sought to represent Ogbomoso in the House of Representatives in the same year and lost at the Party primary election 

“For his desire to serve his people he joined the All People’s Party (APP) at the inception of General Abdulsalam Abubakar’s transition programme”. During this period, he contested for the chairmanship of Ogbomoso North Local Government and won. He later decamped to People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and was made the running mate of the PDP Governorship candidate, Senator Rashidi Ladoja 

After 2003, governorship Election, Alao Akala’s name in Ogbomoso became an household name in nocks and crannies of the zone. The impeachment of Ladoja in 2006, paved way for Akala to became the governor of the State for 11 months and he ran for the governorships election under the platform of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) he won the election, defeating Abiola Ajimobi from the All Nigeria Peoples Party.

Subsequently, Akala became the political generalissimo in the zone, he decided where the Ogbomoso vote bank goes. Akala’s voice in politics is Ogbomoso voice, after his demised; words in tongues of people in Ogbomoso and Oyo State in general is where Akala/Ogbomoso vote bank will go and who will take over his vote bank in Ogbomoso 

2011, 2015 and 2019 Election 

In 2011, Akala recontested the number one seat and was defeated by former governor, Late Abiola Ajimobi. Although, many political analyst in the state opened that the Akala defeat then was majorly based on Ibadan factor. Despite his lost he won almost every wards and polling units in Ogbomoso zone, with his political factor, the two house of Representative candidates under the umbrella of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won the seat, Rt Hon. Mulikat Akande and Hon. Segun Dokun Odebunmi famously known as Bunvic respectively same thing applicable to all the state house of Assembly members from Ogbomoso 

2015, General election, Akala shown interest in the guber election under the unpopular party (LP) Labour Party when he defeated from PDP, he ran against then Governor Abiola Ajimobi, who was running for a second term but lost, though, he won in Ogbomoso zone with all the four house of Assembly members in his party (LP) but lost one Federal Constituency to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Hon. Segun Dokun Odebunmi 

2019 Election, As in previous first election (Presidential, Senate and House of Representatives election), Alao Akala, faces another hard nut. Despite his unrivalled following in Ogbomoso, his party had always been defeated by Hon. Segun Odebunmi side in House of Representative election of Ogooluwa/Surulere federal constituency since 2015. Despite Akala’s inability to win the election, he has, with the exception of 2019 gubernatorial election, won more votes than his opponents in Ogbomoso zone

The exception was in 2019, when he formed coalition with APC governorship candidate, Chief Bayo Adelabu

Who will take the bank vote? 

The voting pattern of Ogbomoso has been sophisticated, like the previous elections; Ogbomoso zone has been the strategy zone for the three major candidates for the gubernatorial election, Gov. Seyi Makinde; Senator Teslim Folarin and Chief Bayo Adelabu. Ranking from the Chief of Staff to the governor, Chief Segun Ogunwuyi heading the affairs of PDP in the zone; Ojuolore movement in Ogbomoso for APC and Sen. Adeseun support for Accord shows how these three candidates were working strategically to win the zone 

Can APC take the vote bank? 

The combination of Senate candidate for the All Progressives Congress (APC), Sen. Fatai Buhari, Hon. Odebunmi Bunvic, Hon. Olamijuwon Alao Akala and the four house of Assembly candidates is a plus for the APC in the zone. Some political analyst in the zone believes that the three major fators that can work for APC in Ogbomoso are Akala’s factor with Juwon “Ojuolore” in the race with combination of Oyato’s Political camp, It is on record that no political leaders had overpowered the Oyato camp in Ogbomoso Politics during the lifetime of Omoiyaalaro. Bunvic factor and the state house of Assembly candidate, Ayodeji Magide because of his father Dr. Samson Adedeji Magida influence in the zone. The Akala’s name will help APC, especially, in the main city while Bunvic that has been proving his poltical weight with and without Akala’s factor is a great additional for the opposition party (APC) in the zone.

Any chance for PDP? 

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the entire zone has been waving stronger after the 2019 first election, the result of the guber election in the zone was a great testament that PDP is on ground despite Akala’s support for APC then. The favourable policies/programmes of Seyi Makinde is an addition for PDP in Ogbomoso, importantly, the sole ownership of the second state technology university in Nigeria, LAUTECH and the ongoing 76km Ogbomoso-Fabote-Iseyin road. Without gainsaying, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso has been one of the most influential factors in voting pattern of Ogbomoso since 2011

The two federal constituency with favourable condition, the Otoge movement in Ogooluwa/Surulere federal constituency and rising star of Chief Segun Ogunwuyi with the emerging of Senate and House of Representative candidates, Hon. Akinwole Solomon “Wolekanle”, Hon. Olufemi Oladokun Onireti and Hon. Ojo Makanjuola Smato. The support of some grassroot mobilisers and politicains is another plus for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the zone, the likes of Hon. Banji Folaranmi, Hon. Muftau Open Salawu, Alhaji Rasak Gbadegesin Kareem, Hon. Simeon Oyeleke, Hon. Sanjo Adedoyin, Hon. John Adisa Oke and others 

Accord Chances

The third force in the state, Accord Party in their own strategy to win Ogbomoso zone in the forthcoming gubernatorial election, they choose the running mate to Chief Bayo Adelabu from Ogbomoso for them to get Ogbomoso bank vote. Even though, they also have the support of some political bigwigs in the zone, Senator Ayo Ademola Adeseun; Rt Hon. Gunju Ojo and the likes

Despite the Accord deputy governorship candidate from the zone, the mobilization strategies is too low comparing with that of APC, PDP and SDP. The only Local Government Accord can get more vote from the zone is Ogooluwa LG and that can only be guarantee in second election (Governorship and HoA) 

Meanwhile, another chance that open for Accord stakes in the Senate election, If Hon. Shina Abiodun Peller won the Oyo North Senatorial seat, Ogbomoso may decide to vote for Bayo Adelabu because of Deputy Governor; that will be the next option because the zone won’t be happy to lose the two positions to Oke-Ogun (Senate and Deputy Governor) 

SDP Luck

Social Democratic Party is on ground in Ogbomoso as well, it can be categorized as the third force in the zone; the mobilization strategies of Oyo North senatorial candidate for SDP, Rt Hon. Mulikat A. Adeola; and the two Federal house of Representative candidates, Hon. Captain Jacob and Hon. Ibraheem Gbodeniyi is top notch. They will also pull votes in Ogbomoso, as it generally says that “Twenty hours is a long journey in politics” if we go to the poll today, SDP will third in at least 3-4 local government areas in the Senate and House of Representatives election while the guber election will determine with the form of coalition 

By and large, with or without Federal or State incumbency factor, no one can decide where Ogbomoso bank vote is going till after Election

Alabi Quadri is a media communication strategist, political analyst and wrote this piece from Ijado, Ogbomoso.

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