And Now, the Trump Factor -By IfeanyiChukwu Afuba

Arthur Agwuncha Nwankwo, the late Fourth Dimension publisher, writer and activist had a way of introducing his political theories in local parlance. Of the recent United States air strikes on terrorist sites in Nigeria, Nwankwo probably would have said: Like play, like play, Donald Trump has become a factor in Nigeria’s government and politics. That would be the proverbial morning after. More strikes are likely to follow, expanding in coverage and intensity in due course. Combating terrorism is a long – distance race. And terrorism borne of religious brainwashing is one of the most intractable threats of modern time. From Chad to Chechnya, the savagery of the ISWAP, Boko Haram, ISIS, Al Qaeda and their local equivalents continues to return, even if at longer intervals and weakened capacity. We can project that Trump’s military push will continue for a while, even to the end of President Bola Tinubu’s term in 2027. How far would Tinubu’s presidency be willing to go in this campaign? What are the probable implications of this development for Nigeria? How is the turn of events likely to
influence Tinubu’s political agenda?

In announcing the December 25, 2025, military operation, the United States President described it as action against the persecution of Christians in Nigeria. There is of course the international dimensions of the intervention in terms of America’s strategic interests. But the focus of Trump’s statement was on consequences for “ISIS terrorists who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even centuries!” The perception of Christian persecution has proved a contentious subject for some time now.
Official government position was that the insurgency in parts of the country was not discriminatory.
Despite the religious intolerance and identity – cleansing surrounding the violence, certain constituencies preferred to generalise the attacks as random. For these interests, last week’s bombing of terrorist hotspots was unwelcome. The IPOB and pro – Biafra groups were accused of pushing the narrative which influenced the US decision. Good enough that the Tinubu presidency saw reasons to back the offensive. Scapegoating will not solve the problems on ground. The US has ample means of intelligence assessment for its policies. Aside their security, political and economic importance to America as a country, the threat posed to modern civilisation by jihadism is not one any serious country needs reminding.
What deserves greater attention is the likely fallout of Trump’s input in Nigeria’s security considerations.

The Trump presidency’s involvement with Nigeria however, transcends territorial security. It’s a larger picture of foreign policy reassessment. Deployment of military force has followed other recent steps. These coordinated moves include sanctions on Nigerian authorities determined to be protecting terrorist groups; country of particular concern designation; as well as suspension of visa processing. The acts reflect a pattern of country/regime ratings and response by the Trump administration. With Mr Donald Trump, cooperation with foreign governments comes with what’s in it for us? Sale of advanced weaponry to United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia has to be reciprocated with favourable oil deals, military bases and improved relations with America’s close ally, Israel. Support for Ukraine against Russia’s Vladimir Putin’s aggression has a price of mineral concessions attached to it. A direct economic angle of this bilateral policy is the government’s practice of trade protectionism. By this means, the administration weaponises trade tariffs to pressure countries of interest along Washington’s spheres of influence.

As with American Presidents, especially Republicans, asserting the power and prestige of the US is central in calculations. To this, we have to also weigh in the personality of Donald Trump. Some see him as another President with imperialist agenda. Maybe, maybe not. America’s power is considerable enough to orient towards dominance. Yes, Trump’s instincts gravitate towards securing America’s greatness, nay, making it even greater. This is what the inchoate interest in Greenland seems to be all about. The ridiculous claims to Greenland compares with Putin’s Ukraine fantasies, the difference being the absence of violence so far, in the former. This vision of grandeur is consistent with the personality zeal that flies the kite of Canada becoming America’s fifty – first State. Trump has a strong sense of history, with an ambition of recording historic firsts. Even with an eye on the Nobel Prize, Trump marches nonetheless to seize advantage of situations that project his leadership. The siege on Maduro’s Venezuela, seems more like assault on vestiges of communism than narcotics ambush. Neighbouring Columbia, experts insist, is the main factory of the drug trade. Mr Trump’s attempt at regime change in Venezuela is in sync with his ambition of achieving breakthroughs. A man who stepped forward to seek pardon for Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Brazil’s Jair Bolsnario is a leader ready to invest in a cause; one who believes that influence can make the difference.

This is a portrait of the man at the door of Nigeria’s power house. How far would President Bola Tinubu be willing to go in the fight against terrorism? Continued collaboration with Trump promises to break the stranglehold of terrorists on Nigerians. But as earlier noted, containing indoctrination – based violence is a continuous campaign. It also requires multi layered and multi dimensional approaches. The Nigerian government will have to undertake certain complementary measures by itself. To
sack the evil jihadists, bandits, killer herdsmen, sadistic kidnappers on the loose in the country, the government has to go further to bring the arm of the law on the cynical criminals. Those who have taken up arms and brought misery to others must face the weight of justice. Application of due punishment remains a standard route to deterrence. It is absurd to have common offenders in prison while bloodthirsty wreckers go scot-free by some official acts of omission or commission. Decisive action on the unacceptable level of insecurity in the country demands that justice be served on the perpetrators of heinous violence and seen to be done. Provision of affordable educational opportunities to the youth alongside a deradicalisation programme will help make the anti terror campaign sustainable.

The big question however is whether the Tinubu presidency will have the will to pursue the counter – terror plan to logical conclusion. Clearly, the needful measures will not be politically convenient. And this is where the proposition for a single tenure of office invites closer consideration. The same reasons for adopting non renewable, five year tenure for vice chancellors are applicable to our executive offices. Mr President, Governors and local government chairmen will be more focused on governance and less inclined to unhealthy compromises where they are not faced with reelection. The current offensive against insecurity is coming at a time Tinubu’s quest for a second term is gathering steam. Reactionary forces in the north have tended to view the fight against terrorism as campaign against the north. This sentiment was at work against Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 election. They are up and about now, pontificating on the merits of negotiating with anarchists and making subtle threats about sovereignty. If Tinubu bows to the pressure, the opposition stands set to take advantage of it.

Perceived reluctance to deal with the nightmare of insecurity will be politically costly for the President. The government will find itself alienated from many parts of the country, as hardly any area has been spared of the trauma. If the President chooses to side – step the push for religious hegemony, which in part, feeds jihadism, he is not likely to ignore the controversy of same faith ticket this time around. Widespread anger over the APC’s dismissal of balancing was one of the factors behind Peter Obi’s strong performance in the 2023 election. Yes, the gale of defections to the APC may well continue for our chicken and chips politicians but the major players know there are new stakes. In the coming days, the opposition is likely to come on bolder and purposeful. The INEC may be more circumspect in it’s pampering of Nyesom Wike and his so – called PDP boys. Who knows if the electoral body will be transparent in the planning and conduct of 2027 polls? We at least know that Trump is watching.