Any Plan B For Igbo Presidency? -By Dele Sobowale

Macpherson was the father of Sir John Macpherson who was a late Governor-General of Nigeria.

A famous writer in his days, many of his works covered the futile efforts of less developed people aimed at resisting imperialist rule.

Most of Africa, including Nigeria, suffered this fate. We are still grappling with the consequences of colonialism till today. In August last year, I published an article titled ‘ATIKU VERSUS TINUBU IN 2023 UNLESS…’ Permit me to repeat the opening paragraph of that column:

ATIKU VERSUS TINUBU IN 2035 UNLESS… 1

“If you don’t know where you are going; you’ll wind up somewhere else” – Yogi Bera, US comedian.

Ask many non-card carrying citizens about the two major political parties in Nigerian today, they will probably tell you that the All Progressives Congress, APC, and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, have failed the country since return to civil rule in 1999. Some will even offer the opinion that we need a third party – in order to make a clean break from the past.

If you believe them, then you must be ready for a surprise in 2023. Unless certain events occur, then you might as well brace yourself for a contest between two old men of Nigerian politics in 2023 – Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as candidate of the PDP and Alhaji Ahmed Tinubu as the candidate of the APC. My advice to those opposed to any of those as successors to Buhari is simple. If you don’t want it, start working hard now. When a thunderstorm is predicted, it is of no use to insult the weather forecaster on television.”

The PDP has spoken; and the flag-bearer is Atiku. So, it is one down; and one to go. Whether or not Tinubu will emerge as the candidate of the APC is what remains to be determined. And, it was because of the APC that I added “unless” to the article last year. There was never any doubt in my mind that Atiku would be the PDP candidate once the party jettisons zoning the presidency to the South-East. My own preferred candidate was Senator Pius Anyim. But, it was clear to me that his chances were best if the party turned to the South-East. They did not.

The APC is still working towards selecting a candidate. But, there is no Igbo aspirant there who stands a chance of grabbing the ticket. So many people have only gambled with their N100million to collect a worthless paper. Godwin Emefiele is lucky; he was out of the race before more financial damage could be done to him. Certainly, the APC will not send an Igbo candidate against Atiku. Governor David Umahi, sounding like a mouse attempting to roar, announced a few days ago that he would beat Atiku convincingly if fielded by the APC.

He is entitled to his delusions of wide popularity. But, it is doubtful if there are up to 100,000 Nigerians outside of Ebonyi State who regard him as their awaited leader. His N100million has already gone up in smoke unless APC wins in 2023. His sort of distraction only delays the need for urgent reflection by Ndigbo and their supporters, like me, to consider Plan B. The fate of Nigeria might be riding on the collective decision – based on plain arithmetic.

Eight More Years of Waiting?
If a month is a long time in politics as proclaimed by the late British Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, 1916-1995, then eight years is like eternity or never. Nigerian politicians are never gifted with foresight. They take absolutely short term decisions which have long term implications and cause problems which they later attempt to solve – usually unsuccessfully.

We are all living witnesses to the result of decades of creating millions of illiterate and unskilled almajiris in the North. The bandits terrorising the North now were created by political leaders.

When the APC finally selects its own candidate, undoubtedly non-Igbo, the door would have been forcefully slammed in the face of Ndigbo unless there is a Plan B to help avert disaster for all Nigerians. The signs are not promising. Let me explain as carefully as possible without being accused of incitement.

If one looks at the votes recorded by PDP aspirants for presidency, it would be obvious that Igbo aspirants received votes only from Igbo delegates. Almost none of them got one vote from any other zone. The pattern of exclusion is total. Place this side by side with the fact that the South-East had been the most loyal zone to the PDP; and you can be excused for calling what happened a betrayal.

What then does the PDP expect from the zone? Anybody expecting 98 per cent of South-East votes must be living in his own fool’s paradise. It won’t happen. I will soon reveal what will most probably happen; and why. Our politicians asked for it on our behalf; but we, the people, will suffer the consequences the most.

Lack of support for their cause by enough elder statesmen and women from other zones is another reason Ndigbo should be angry about the outcome of the (PDP) primary. Chief Edwin Clark, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, Chief Olu Falae and Alhaji Tanko Yakassai are the few old men from other zones urging the major political parties to give the Igbo a chance this time.

Younger people, like Fasan and Ebiseni, and myself, are also in short supply. But, looking at the ages of those old warriors for justice and me, one can easily see that not all of us will be around in eight years to go to war for Igbo presidency. We might have had our last battle.

So, the question can be asked: Who will replace the old warriors in eight years’ time? There is nothing more dis-spiriting than to be fighting a just cause alone. Thus, there is no guarantee that Igbo presidency will be generally accepted even eight years from now. Second class citizenship has never been more clearly defined; and it can only give birth to more civil unrest in the South-East; at least.

Will Elections Be Boycotted?
“Nobody will vote in Igboland in 2023” -Angry Igbo youth
He is not a member of IPOB; he refused to join MASSOB when that organisation was the face of barren secessionist movement. But, he participated in keeping voters at home during the last election in Anambra State.

He is warming up for 2023; when he and others like him will do their worst to try and prevent voting in the South-East. Now, if you consider that an empty threat, then try and recollect how many thousands of security men were mobilised to deliver a mere ten per cent of voters for governor’s election.

There will not be as many defenders of public order for the presidential election in 2023. The call for total boycott, which may start any minute from now, may be backed by more threats to lives and properties. INEC officials will be the primary targets.

The call for boycott, even if successful, will only result in far fewer votes from the South-East than what would have been expected. It still will not produce an Igbo President in 2023 unless an Igbo candidate emerges from a third party.

How About Obi as Candidate Of Labour Party?
“Idealists in politics lack a sense of reality; and a politician must be a realist above all” – Henry Miller, 1891-1980.

It is difficult to determine whether the party or the candidate is the joker. Perhaps both are taking Nigerians for a ride. In that case, the joke is on them. The Labour Party, with Obi as presidential candidate, is going absolutely nowhere. The party has won only two governorship elections in the past – in Edo and Ondo states – with a great deal of financial support from Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

misadventure into politics years ago. I went to his office and warned him. ‘The Peoples Lawyer’ was badly beaten by the regular ‘chop-I-chop’ politicians. Even Igbos will not vote for Obi. And, if he wins miraculously, he will be President without Labour senators and members of the House of Representatives to support him. He will rule at the mercy of the APC and PDP lawmakers. They will be merciless. The late Balarabe Musa was tossed out in Kaduna State in the Second Republic without repercussions to the majority.
The man should just save his money and quit.

But There is Still an Option for Ndigbo
“It is unthinkable that wisdom should ever be popular” – Goethe, 1749-1832. Despite everything written above, it is possible that the Igbo people still have an option left unexamined. Unfortunately, they don’t want advice from non-Igbos. So, I keep my mouth shut and move on in the words of Paul in II Timothy 4:7: “I have fought the good fight; I have finished my course; I have kept the faith.”