May Trump Not Happen to Us -By Abdulkadir Salaudeen

The fear of the United States President Donald Trump is, some say, the beginning of wisdom. This is especially true in the current global power relations, which are more characterized by chaos. For the first time in recent history, we have a president who will vow to do what seems impossible and what many people would discard as an empty threat, but will make his threat real.”

Trump’s invation of Venezuela few days ago is a case in point. The threat to invade this oil endowed country is not new. It had been Trump’s pet project right from his first tenure as the US President. Military option to confront Nicolás Maduro’s government has always been his strong desire. That desire is now a reality.

What exactly does Trump want in Venezuela? Three things are prominent. One, he wanted to end Nicolás Maduro’s autocratic government. Two, Trump accused Maduro of drug trafficking. Thus, his invasion is purposely to take action against drug cartels operating in the country contributing to the US opioid crisis. Three, Venezuela is said to have world’s largest proven oil reserves. Mr. Trump cannot overlook that. Venezuela, when conquered, would serve the US interests.

Let’s examine Trump’s objectives one by one. If his invasion aims to end Nicolás Maduro’s autocratic rule, does it imply that all autocratic governments worldwide should expect Trump’s invasion? If so, how democratic is Trump himself to be policing non-democratic regimes? Isn’t capturing a president of a sovereign state like a common criminal the epitome of autocracy in the modern world? This action contravenes international law. Trump’s invasion exemplifies autocracy fighting autocracy, without Congressional approval, showcasing the immense power a president wields in a presidential system.

In his reaction to Maduro’s capture Strategic Analysis Australia Director Michael Shoebridge said Trump’s action would have global implications. “Trump really has put meat on the bones of the words in his national security strategy, which said America was going to dominate the Western Hemisphere, and encouraged other major powers to exert more power in their own near neighbourhoods.”

Michael Shoebridge described the snatching of the dictator as inexcusable. “Whatever the flaws of Venezuala and Maduro, a military abduction of a national leader, followed by President Trump saying the US will ‘run’ the country and extract a lot of oil and wealth from it, is all bad news for Australia and the wider world,” Mr Shoebridge said. He further noted: “We are watching America show others how major powers can use force for what looks like pretty muddy and selfish reasons in their near neighbourhood. Beijing now has a very recent precedent for whatever it wishes to do against the 24 million people living in freedom in Taiwan.” The security analyst called America under Trump “alarmingly unilateral and capricious” and “simply not a reliable or stable ally”.

I doubt that any scholar of International Relations would disagree with Shoebridge. Professor Marc Weller, the Director of the International Law Programme at Chatham House strongly argued that justifications are hard to see in Maduro’s capture by Trump. “It is difficult to conceive of possible legal justifications for transporting Maduro to the US, or for the attacks. There is no UN Security Council mandate that might authorize force,” Weller wrote.

According to surveys, US citizens are opposed to the use of the military in Venezuela. And any strikes inside Venezuela now will likely force a vote in the US Congress under the War Powers Act. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has said he is “deeply alarmed.” He noted that the rules of international law have not been met in this instance, calling it a ‘dangerous precedent’.

The US Congress appears to be divided over Trump’s invasion. This led to a vote on procedural measure to advance the war powers resolution. Senators who opposed the war powers resolution said Maduro’s seizure was a law enforcement operation, not a military action. They claimed Maduro faces trial in a U.S. court on drug and gun charges, to which he has pleaded not guilty.

To address Trump’s second objective or justification for the invasion, which is the drug-related case, I urge all Nigerians to patriotically pray for Nigeria. Nigeria might not be safe if Trump is truly after rulers with drug trials in the US. Someone whom I later learnt had been nominated and approved as Nigerian ambassador, wrote the following prior to the 2023 Nigerian general elections about current Nigerian President:

“If anybody can get close enough to Bola Tinubu to take a sample of his hair or urine, this election will be over. Because with his hair or urine sample, a laboratory can analyse if he still takes drugs an what type of drugs he takes. Tinubu is a KNOWN DRUG LORD who belongs in jail, not Aso Rock! I went to Chicago myself and obtained verified court documents. It will be a shame if this man gets anywhere close to Aso Rock.” Could this be the reason Trump called Nigeria a disgraced country?

The guy in question continued: “A nation with drug lord President is a nation whose passport is automatically suspect!” I don’t know the juju this guy used to become an ambassador under the same Tinubu against whom he once made serious drug allegations. I hope and pray that Trump would never see this nonsense written about our president. And in case he sees it, he should not believe the guy that wrote it but rather dismiss him as a hungry clown who can do anything for food.

Venezuela’s oil reserves is said to be the third reason Trump captured Venezuelan president. This is most likely. For after Trump’s fast, sweet, and vicious capture of Nicolás Maduro, along with his wife, he did not hesitate to announce that Venezuela would deliver 30 to 50 million barrels of “high-quality” oil to the US. Trump stated that the oil would be sold at market price, and the proceeds would be controlled by him to benefit both Venezuela and the US.

As if to completely enslave Venezuelans, Trump emphasized that Venezuela would use the oil money to purchase American-made products, including agricultural goods, medicines, and equipment to improve Venezuela’s electric grid and energy facilities. He also mentioned that the US would oversee Venezuela’s oil sales “indefinitely.” This is serious!

This is not how to exert geopolitical Influence. But this is exactly what Trump aims. He is intent to assert US dominance in the Western Hemisphere and counter rivals like China and Russia.

What are the lessons learnt especially for Nigeria. One, Power, though sweet, is ephemeral. It should thus not be abused. Two, Trump is not a friend to any state. For him, it is the United States first, given his “America First”  policy. Inviting Trump to Nigeria is a misthought — a mistake. Let’s hope he forgets he has an unfinished assignment in Nigeria. Those beating the drum of ‘Christian genocide’ should have a rethink. About 90 percent of Venezuelans are Christians and this is what Trump did to them. Anyway, maybe the Venezuelans are not his cherished Christians like the Nigerian’s.

Three, let’s stop joking when Trump dishes out his usual threats. A northern cleric recently said in a sermon: “America cannot defeat us, and if they insist on fighting us, we are more than ready to confront them.” I laughed sarcastically.

What this cleric does not know is that America of today does not wage war against any country. It is the almighty Trump that does. And when he does, it is always fast, sweet, and vicious. I have come to the conclusion that Trump is not hypocritical about his threats. He is an autocrat both in words and action. May Trump not happen to us.

Finally, let’s pray nothing untoward happens to Nigeria before 2027 election and even after. Nigerians should make sure drug lords or drug addicts are not voted into office for any electoral position, whether at the national, state, or local government level.

Abdulkadir Salaudeen 

salahuddeenabdulkadir@gmail.com