Navigating The Quandary: ECOWAS And The Niger Junta Conundrum -By Solomon Eragbie

In the words of Afro beats sensation Burna Boy, “If evidence no dey, you go explain tire.” These words resonate profoundly when considering the current conundrum faced by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in its dealings with the Niger Junta. The situation exemplifies the critical importance of tangible success in our endeavors, serving as a stark reminder that mere explanations without evidence are destined to fall on deaf ears.

ECOWAS, a coalition of 15 member countries, finds itself entangled in a complex web of tensions with the Niger Junta. The country’s military recently deposed the elected leader, Mohamed Bazoum, citing various reasons including failures and unaccountability. Despite diplomatic overtures from respected figures such as Former Nigerian Head of State Abdulsalami Abubakar, and the Eminent Sultan of Sokoto Sa’adu Abubakar, negotiations reached an impasse. The situation escalated as the Niger junta severed diplomatic ties with Nigeria, adding another layer of complexity to an already intricate scenario.

The region has witnessed a disheartening series of military coups, with four coups occurring within a span of just 18 months. The recurring theme of failed peace efforts leading to more coups underscores the urgency for a decisive stance. In response, ECOWAS, under the leadership of the newly elected Nigerian president, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, convened an extraordinary session. The consensus emerged among member states to restore democratic order by any means necessary, even entertaining the prospect of forceful intervention.

The immediate rollout of sanctions aimed at mounting pressure has drawn significant attention, but the spotlight has largely fallen on President Tinubu. Critics labeled the decisions as his alone, prompting widespread protests and criticism within Nigerien society. However, it is crucial to recognize that the decision to restore democratic order was a collective endeavor undertaken by the ECOWAS bloc, despite President Tinubu bearing the brunt of public scrutiny.

As the bloc navigates its path forward, opinions diverge on the timing and manner of its response. While some contend that the threat of force was prematurely invoked, others laud the bloc for displaying the resolve to quell coups, an issue that has historically not garnered sufficient condemnation. The dilemma lies in whether to align words with actions, sending an unequivocal message that coups will not be tolerated, or to adopt a more cautious approach, as seen in previous instances involving Mail and Burkina Faso which I would say did not result in any proper solution.

In contemplating the course ahead, there is a pressing need for meticulous planning. Nigeria’s internal security challenges necessitate a comprehensive strategy that safeguards the nation’s military structure and ensures a sustained momentum. Drawing from historical precedents like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US-Mogadishu incident, the importance of thorough planning and contingency measures cannot be overstated.

As ECOWAS grapples with its decision, the potential ramifications loom large. The hope remains that whatever path is chosen, success will be achieved with minimal loss of life. Failure to achieve this outcome could spell dire consequences, particularly for the northern regions of Nigeria that share extensive borders with Niger.

In the poetic words of Burna Boy, “If we no succeed for this endeavor, evidence no go dey, we go explain tire.” As we embark on this challenging journey, our collective prayers echo for a successful resolution, whichever path is pursued.

Solomon Eragbie, contributing from Lagos, Nigeria,
Can be reached via seragbie@gmail.com.