Nigeria: The Socio-Economic Impact of a President’s Twitter Ban -By Femi Oyesanya

On Friday, June 4th 2021, the Nigerian Government announced a  Twitter Social Media ban.  According to a statement issued by the Ministry of Information and Culture,. the Federal Government has suspended, indefinitely, the operations of the microblogging and social networking service, Twitter, in Nigeria,”   With the stoke of a pen, the Nigerian Government terminated  the right to free speech.  But what has has it undermined?

 Whilst the action taken by the Nigerian Government  is a  clear violation of the Nigerian Constitution, this article looks at the ban from a Socio-Economic impact perspective.  The question here is, has the Nigerian dictator shot himself in the foot?   What is the Socio-Economic impact of the Twitter ban to the average Nigerian?

To put into perspective the importance of ICT to the Economic health of Nigeria,  according to one news report nighlithing t the impact of ICT on the 2020 GDP report   “…. only 17 out of 46 Sectors recorded positive real growth in 2020. Oil refining and Air transport saw the highest decline with -62.2% and -36.9% respectively, while Quarrying and Telecommunications had the highest growth with 21.1% and 15.09% respectively. [1].

In essence, the real growth sector in Nigerian Economics is primarily Technology, information, communication and entertainment.    This sector has boomed organically.  It is also worth mentiontioning that the growth ICT  has been largely due to lapse in regulation by the Nigerian Govenment.   Government had no or very little  hand in ICT besides regulatory oversight in the Telecummunications Induustry.

 The breakthrough of the Nigerian Entertainment sector into platforms such as Netflix, Spotify, and other online streaming media has allowed Nigerian artists entry into an International market, providing foreign exchange earnings and jobs.  Unmplement rate by the way in Nigeria is 33%.   Why then does the Nigerian Government implement a draconian  Excutive order to hamper job creation?

What is the Economic impact of Nigerian twitter ban?  What Economic rational does a Country struggling to diversity its oil based economy have for banning a growth sector?      According to Netblock, an online economic shutdown estimation portal, the cost of the Twitter ban is estimated to be $5,593,819 per hour or $134,251,654 per day.[2]   Whilst it is important to note that these numbers do not completely capture the total economic impact due to Nigerian youths use of VPN to bypass the ban, it offers a quantitative insight on the cost of the ban to the Nigerian Economy.

It is also important to note that that Nigerian has entered discussions with China about the possibility of using Chinese made technology to implement a version of the Chinese-Nigerian Internet firewall.  “Tthe Nigerian government, through the office of the Presidency, reached out to the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) to discuss plans to build an internet firewall” [3].   In all indication, Nigerian policy makers might be eying more than a Twitter ban.

Well, Nigeria has not banned the Internet yet.  It has ordered Internet Services Providers to deny out-going traffic to Twitter.   But what are the consequences?    What are the social-enomomic utility of Twitter to the Nigerian ICT market.  Nigerian use of twitter is extremely ingenious.  Besides traditional use of Twitter for news reporting, Nigerians use the Twitter platform as follows:

1. Charity. Nigerians use the Twitter platform to solicit and extend charity.  This might sound peculiar to non Nigerians, the practice is actually in alignment with cultural tradition.  For example, a sick person  might post a tweet, pleading for charity donations.   Bank accounts and other personal information are usually provided as part of the tweet.
2.     Hunt. Nigerians use twitter for job networking.   It is not unusual for employers to post job requisition tweets. Many Nigerian youth have become gainfully employed using Twitter
3.     Programming Training.   There are a few Nigerians that use the Twitter platform to coordinate online Python Programming training.  This particular use of Twitter has gained popularity during the pandemic.
4.   Influencer Economics.   Influencers are Nigerians with a large Twitter following that use the platform to promote politics or procuts.  This type of advertisement is outside of the Twiter paid Advertising program.
5.       Small Business promotion.   Nigerian small businesses post their “hustle” as tweets to promote local small businesses.  These products range from arts and craft, prepared food, jewelry, etc.
6.   Cryptocurrency Training.   Nigerians use Twitter to teach how to trade in Cryptocurrency.
7.     Crime and Accident reporting.   Nigerians in large cospomolitans rely on tweets to report crimes such as rape, armed robbery, kidnapping.  The Nigerian police have actually relied on some of these tweets to investigate a very notorious rape and kidnapping case.
8. Music and Movie promotion. Nigerian artists use twitter to launch new movies and music.  It is important to note that some Nigerian artists have millions of viewership on Youtube from around the world.
9.     Customer Service.   Several Nigerian based businesses use their Twitter handle to accept and process customer complaints.  These includes; banks, telecommunications, and airlines.
10.     Transportation.  Small scale ride share businesses use Twitter to promote their Services.
11.     Public health.  During the Covid-19 pandemic, twitter was used by public health officials in Nigeria to inform the public on safety precautions.

The list goes on and on.  Although there is no model to quantify the direct economic impact of these activities and contribution to ICT, we know that the sum total of these online activities have given rise to increases in ICT GDP.   There is a thriving underground economy powered by Social media that is being disrupted by government action.  This can not be disputed.

References

1. https://technext.ng/2021/02/19/ict-contribution-rise-to-15-as-nigerias-real-gdp-drops-to-n70-trillion-in-2020/
2. https://netblocks.org/cost/
3. https://fij.ng/article/exclusive-presidency-meets-with-chinas-cyber-regulator-to-build-nigerian-internet-firewall/

Femi Oyesanya  CISSP
Email: oyesanyf@gmail.com
Chicago, IL