Predicted Choropleth Map of 2023 Presidential Election -By Francis Jeremiah Sharon

The presidential primaries are over, what comes next are the political campaigns where presidential aspirants give stump speeches to persuade voters. According to INEC timetable for the 2023 General elections—28th, September 2022 is the date for the commencement of campaigns by political parties in Public. This is in accordance with section (94)1 of the electoral act 2022.

So how do things stand as we await the commencement of campaigns by political parties? Which states are the swing/battleground states? Which states are APC and PDP predicted to win? And how does the introduction of a third wheel (Peter Obi) affect the state of affairs?

To answer some of these questions, i gathered data from elections conducted by INEC since 2014, and grouped each state into one of four categories. These categories are:

• Core APC states
• Core PDP states
• Swing states I (Potential APC or PDP)
• Swing states II (Potential LP or PDP)
NB: Swing states I and II are battleground states regardless
From these categories I was able to create a possible Choropleth map for the 2023 presidential elections (See image above).

Core APC states
Core APC states are states which have predominantly voted for APC in the last two general elections with at least 50,000 more votes than their closest opponents. These states include:

Bronu state, Gombe state, Jigawa state, Kaduna state, Kano state, Katsina state, Kebbi state, Kogi state, Kwara state, Lagos state, Niger state, Ogun state, Yobe state and Zamfara state.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that all governors of these states are serving under the APC platform. Presidential flag bearer for the party, Ahmed Bola Tinubu is expected to perform well in these states at the 2023 general elections.

Core PDP states
Core PDP states are states which have predominantly voted for PDP in the last two general elections with at least 50,000 more votes than their closest opponents. These states include:

Akwa ibom state, Bayelsa state, Cross River state, Delta state, Rivers state, Taraba state and the Federal Capital territory.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that majority of the governors of these states are serving under the PDP platform except for the Governor of Cross River (Benedict Ayade) who defected from PDP to APC in 2021. The senator representing the Federal Capital territory—Senator Philips Tanimu Aduda is serving under the PDP platform. Presidential flag bearer for the party, Atiku Abubakar is expected to perform well in these states at the 2023 general elections.

Swing states (Potential APC or PDP)
Swing states are states that had either voted APC or PDP in the previous presidential and their respective gubernatorial election. Due to their unpredictable results I will categorise them as Swing states. These states include:

Bauchi state, Benue state, Edo state, Ekiti state, Nassarwa state, Ondo state, Osun state, Oyo state, Pleateu state, and Sokoto state.

Bauchi state
In the 2015 general election APC won the state with total votes of 931,598 beating PDP which polled 86,085. In 2019 APC won the state with total votes of 798,428 beating PDP which polled 209,313, but in the 2019 gubernatorial election Bala Mohammed of PDP won against the APC incumbent governor Mohammad Abdullahi Abubaka 515,313 to 500,625. Although Bauchi had predominantly voted APC, Bala Mohammed win in the gubernatorial election showed that with the right candidate Bauchi might swing in 2023.

Benue state
In the 2019 general election PDP won the state with total votes of 356,817 against APC which polled 347,668, a difference of less than 11,000 votes separated both parties. In 2015 APC won the state with total votes of 373,961 against the PDP which polled 303,737. In the last two gubernatorial elections in the state, Samuel Orton won in 2015 under the APC platform, and was re-elected in 2019 under the PDP platform (after defecting in 2018). Inconsistencies like these are an indicator that Benue state might swing once again in 2023.

Edo state
In the 2019 general election PDP won the state with total votes of 275,691 against APC which polled 267,842, a difference of less than 9,000 votes separated both parties. In 2015 PDP won the state with total votes of 286,869 against APC which polled 208,469. In the last two gubernatorial elections in the state, Godwin Obaseki won in 2016 under the APC platform, and was re-elected in 2020 under the PDP platform (after defecting in 2020). Inconsistencies like these are an indicator that Edo state might swing in 2023.

Ekiti state
In the 2019 general elections APC won the state with total votes of 219,231 against PDP which polled 154,032. In 2015 PDP won the state with total votes of 176,466 against APC which polled 120,331. In the last two Gubernatorial elections (2014 and 2018), PDP and APC has emerged victorious producing governors like Ayodele Fayose (PDP) and current governor, Kayode Fayemi (APC). Inconsistencies like these are an indicator that Ekiti state might swing once again in 2023.

Nassarwa state
In the 2019 general election APC won the state with total votes of 289,903 against PDP which polled 283,847, a difference of less than 7,000 votes separated both parties. In 2015 PDP won the state with total votes of 273,460 against APC which polled 236,838, a difference of less than 50,000 votes separated both parties. The last two gubernatorial elections have been won by APC, but due to the closeness of election results in the state, Nassarwa might swing once again in 2023.

Ondo state
In the 2019 general election PDP won the state with total votes of 275,901 against APC which polled 241,769, a difference of less than 40,000 separated both parties. In 2015 APC won the state with total votes of 299,889 against PDP which polled 251,368, a difference of less than 50,000 separated both parties. Although the last two gubernatorial elections have been won by APC, Ondo state might swing once again in 2023.

Osun state
In the 2019 general election APC won the state with total votes of 347,634 against PDP which polled 337,377, a difference of less than 11,000 separated both parties. In 2015 APC won the state with total votes of 383,603 against PDP which polled 249,929. The last gubernatorial election (2018) in the state saw Gboyega Oyetola of the APC emerge victorious with 482 more votes than his rival Ademola Adeleke of the PDP. This abutting result is too obvious to hide under the carpet, Osun state might swing in 2023.

Oyo state
In the 2019 general election PDP won the state with total votes of 366,690 against APC which polled 365,229, a difference of less than 2,000 votes seperated both parties. In 2015 APC won the state with total votes of 528,620 against PDP which polled 303,376. In the last two gubernatorial elections (2015 and 2019) PDP and APC has emerged victorious producing governors like late Abiola Ajimobi (APC) and current Governor, Seyi Makinde (PDP). Inconsistencies like these are an indicator that Oyo state might swing once again in 2023.

Plateau state
In the 2019 general election PDP won the state with total votes of 548,665 against APC which polled 468,555. In 2015 PDP won the state with total votes of 549,615 against APC which polled 429140, but during this period Simon Along—Governor of the state won the 2015 and 2019 gubernatorial election under the APC platform. Inconsistencies like these are an indicator that Plateau state might swing once again in 2023.

Sokoto state
In the 2019 general election APC won the state with total votes of 490,333 against PDP which polled 361,604. In 2015 APC won the state with total votes of 671,926 against PDP which polled 152,199. In August 1, 2018 Aminu Tambuwal who was elected governor under the APC platform defected to the PDP and was re-elected governor in the 2019 gubernatorial election polling 512,002 to 511,660 against his rival Mr. Aliyu of the APC. Although Sokoto had predominantly voted APC, Aminu Tambuwal win in the gubernatorial election showed that with the right candidate Bauchi might swing in 2023.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that Governors in 5 of these states are serving under the platform of PDP, and the other 5 are serving under the platform of APC.

Swing states (Potential LP or PDP)
The South-eastern region which is made up of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo states have predominantly voted for PDP in every general election since 1999, but the emergence of Peter Obi, an Igbo candidate from the region might turn things around. With the clarion call in the youths sweeping through the region, it is likely that labour party might tear down the hegemony of PDP in the southeast. States like Anambra (Peter Obi Home state), which have been an enclave for APGA, might be the forerunner of this movement.

Will every south easterner vote for Peter Obi? or is this a mere illusion fuelled by social media? For now the South-eastern region remains a battleground.

This Choropleth map of 2023 Presidential election doesn’t take into consideration factors like tribalism and nepotism. Public Ideas and opinions might change from time to time. Make your votes count. Get your PVC.