Strategic Insights from the Past: In the Context of Niger’s Leadership and Conflict -By Caleb Onah

Just as the ancient Chinese military treatise dating from the spring and Autumn Period (roughly 771 to 476 BC) – the work which is attributed to the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu (“Master Sun”, also spelled Sunzi), the Art of War shouldn’t be seen only as a classic military text, but applied to business, politics, and other fields, known for its insights into strategy, tactics, and leadership.

Relatively, for those may not be aware Niger’s recent coup marked the culmination of a prolonged period of tension between President Mohamed Bazoum and his chief guard(s). The rift emerged due to Bazoum’s efforts to establish his independent leadership following his succession from his political mentor Mahamadou Issoufou in 2021.

Seeking to assert his control over the West African nation, Bazoum undertook measures to sideline influential figures within both the military and public administration. Ironically, Bazoum’s forceful drive to consolidate authority turned out to be his ‘vulnerability.’

Quoting from Sun Tzu, “he who knows the enemy and knows himself will not be endangered in a hundred battles.” For example, the Zulus used their knowledge of the terrain to their advantage during their battles against the British. But sadly, this is where Mohamed Bazoum missed it allowing Abdourahamane Tiani to become a genius.

General Abdourahamane Tiani, the head of the formidable presidential guard, grew apprehensive about his potential removal from power. Fearing this outcome, Tiani reversed his loyalty, betraying his superior. He was confident that other high-ranking military officials would eventually align with him.

This narrative of Niger’s coup is based on information garnered from 15 interviews conducted by Reuters with sources including Nigerien security personnel, politicians, and current/former Western government representatives.

Efforts to reach both Tiani and Bazoum for comments were unsuccessful. In his initial statement following the July 26 coup, Tiani justified his actions by claiming to act in the nation’s best interests.

During his tenure, Bazoum had bolstered military collaboration with France and the United States, curtailed the autonomy of Nigerien army commanders, and initiated anti-corruption campaigns that targeted associates of Issoufou, particularly within the oil sector.

These actions generated adversaries for Bazoum. Tiani, who had previously led Issoufou’s guard for a decade and thwarted a coup shortly before Bazoum’s assumption of power, retained his position under the new president.

Commanding the well-equipped and powerful force stationed in Niamey, the capital, Tiani’s authority had been intact. However, Bazoum gradually reduced the size of the presidential guard, which numbered around 700 at the time of the coup, and scrutinized its financial allocation.

Driven by self-preservation, Tiani, a figure who had risen through the ranks and was promoted to general by Issoufou, discreetly gauged the willingness of selected commanders to support his coup plans. This ensured that other branches of the military would not oppose him.

The specific commanders briefed by Tiani remain unknown as per Reuters’ investigation. Tiani strategically waited until a substantial portion of troops had been dispatched from Niamey to Diffa, a remote location in south-eastern Niger, for the Aug. 3 Independence Day celebrations before making his move, as relayed by two informed sources.

While Sun Tzu’s emphasis on deception and surprise can be used to great effect in guerrilla warfare currently being experienced in Niger Republic and Africa today, where small, lightly armed forces can use the terrain to their advantage and attack their enemies when they are least expecting it was a perfect representation of General Abdourahamane Tiani. By understanding the ‘enemy’s resources’ and using our own resources wisely, we can gain a significant advantage.

Fast forwarding, this which played out-as Niger’s prime minister was absent from the country, Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massaoudou took charge of the efforts to secure the release of President Bazoum, as reported by sources familiar with the situation. However, Massaoudou did not provide any response to inquiries seeking his statements.

Around midday on July 26, a statement on a social media profile associated with the Nigerien presidency conveyed that President Bazoum and his family were in good condition.

It also conveyed the readiness of the army and National Guard to take action against the rebelling soldiers should they not stand down. Following this announcement, a considerable number of Bazoum’s supporters gathered at a central square in Niamey and subsequently marched toward the presidential palace.

Their purpose was to demand the release of the president by the mutineers and their return to their barracks. Later that day, National Guard units positioned themselves around the location where President Bazoum was being held.

However, around 9p.m., the mutineers released a video on state television. In this broadcast, a little-known colonel named Amadou Abdramane, dressed in a blue military jacket and flanked by nine officers, declared that Bazoum had been deposed, all republican institutions suspended, and Niger’s borders sealed.

Notably, almost every division of Niger’s security apparatus was represented in this group, spanning the police, army, air force, and presidential guard. Ahmad Sidien, second-in-command of the National Guard, was also present during the video announcement.

The subsequent day, the Nigerien military command aligned itself with the junta’s cause, and the National Guard lifted its encirclement of the presidential guard’s compound, in line with Tiani’s aspirations, as disclosed by sources aware of the coup plot.

Tiani, who had opted to maintain a low profile until he had garnered public backing from other commanders, as shared by the sources, made a televised appearance on July 28.

During this brief speech, he attributed the junta’s actions to the protection of the homeland and criticised Niger’s government for its inability to address security challenges.

The Line – Hassoumi Massaoudou, Abdourahamane Tiani, and Amadou Abdramane

However, with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issuing a threat of military intervention unless the coup was reversed, Tiani might soon face a drastically different kind of threat. Yet until today, Tiani and majority of Nigerien never reserved their decision on a military ruling in the Country.

By being decisive, cultivating our strengths, and avoiding arrogance, we can become a more effective leader in every endeavour. Further, it is observed that “all warfare is based on deception” as used by Amadou Abdramane. For example, the Mau Mau rebels in Kenya also used deception to great effect during their struggle against British rule.

Furthermore, “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting,” this principle was applied to the Niger’s general Abdourahamane Tiani, where there is often a ‘shortage’ of resources – social amenities, man power, finance Etc. Many African countries have experienced internal conflicts, ethnic tensions, and border disputes over the years.

Niger’s Takeaway

It is worthy and important to note that, understanding one’s own strengths and weaknesses, as well as those of adversaries, applies to conflict resolution efforts and peaceful coexisting.

By analyzing the root causes of conflicts and addressing them with strategic diplomacy, nations and I mean African countries can work towards peaceful resolutions. Encouraging unity, minimizing corruption, and fostering the well-being of citizens are principles that align on winning the support of the African people.