The Debate Begins With Asiwaju’s ‘Renewed Hope 2023’ -By Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim

Just when a number of patriotic Nigerians were beginning to express concerns about the ethno-religious nuances of the messaging in the 2023 campaigns, the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, launched an 85-page document envisioning the road map for governance if he and his running mate Kashim Shettima are elected.

The document should help to fundamentally refocus discussion on the real issues about the future of Nigeria- economic prosperity, national security, infrastructural and social development.

This for me is a welcome relief from the inane, emotive and the ephemeral, which the discussions surrounding 2023 presidential election has been centred on, especially in the social media.

Immediately the document was released, I tried to get feedback from some of my younger friends; one, a Deputy Director in a federal agency, another, a music artiste. Their reactions were the same. The one who is a public servant summarised the perspective of both of them, “Oga, 80 pages, that is theory, let us talk practical things.”

The reactions of my friends, who are both graduates, summarise the prevailing anti-intellectual culture in Nigeria among young people. I understand most young people do not want to read. I am usually advised by my online advisors that any post longer than eight or ten lines runs the risk of not being read. Short hilarious posts or items suggesting sex or portraying nudity do better. I picked up issues with these my friends immediately by asking “what is wrong with theory?” I am yet to see any country in the world where the leaders promised a new society without presenting a plan and a road map. Sometimes leaders exceed the target in the implementation of their plans and sometimes they underperform.

When we talk about the French revolution, we talk about the several Writings of French philosophers like Jean-Jacques Rousseau and Montesquieu. We talk about the Federalist papers of leaders of the American Revolution, apart from the inspirational works of writers like Thomas Paine. In Russia, we talk about V.I Lenin’s New Economic Plan that transformed Tsarist Russia uncompetitiveness in Europe into a modern state between 1918 and 1922. The nation on that foundation became a Superpower.

In Nigeria, our Independence leaders such as Dr Nnamdi Azikwe, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Sir Ahmadu Bello, laid down several thousands of pages of documents on their dream for a great Nigeria, and they delivered on their plans with Nigeria becoming one of the leading countries of the third world, a step ahead in the club of Malaysia and Thailand. The superlative performance of the Nigerian independence leaders between the period of limited independence and early independence (1955 -1966), had boldly written programmes as guide to action.

It was this culture of anchoring a political vision on a solid boldly written plan, programme, and action that Kingsley Moghalu and I, in our intervention in the 2019 presidential campaigns, tried to re-awaken. Documenting a vision is a priceless practice in the scripture. “And the Lord answered me, and said, write the vision, and make it plain upon tables, that he may run that readeth it.” (Habakkuk 2:2). What Tinubu has done is to plainly lay down his vision.

Now to the document itself, I will only limit myself to a quick review of Tinubu’s Economic plans, some comments on National Security, and my expectation on the management of Nigeria’s diversity, due to space constraints. I will be more detailed on the Economy, because whatever promises anybody is making, if you do not have a plan of how to find the money, everything else is a joke!

Here I have seen Tinubu’s profound grasp of Political Economy in a way equal or deeper than the late sage, Obafemi Awolowo. That should be expected as Asiwaju lives in an era of more information.

I start with his position on budgeting. Hear him, “Budgeting customs bases our annual budget and fiscal policies largely on the dollar value of projected oil receipts, not only does this practice artificially restrict the Federal Government’s fiscal latitude, it also attracts the nation’s attention towards a single source of fiscal receipt to the detriment of others.”

Continuing, Tinubu said, “To achieve optimal growth in the long term, we must wean ourselves from this limitation. A more efficient fiscal methodology would be to base our budgeting on the projected level of government spending which optimises growth and jobs without causing unacceptable inflation.”

I cannot agree more. This is a radical departure from the Bretton Woods orthodoxy that has constrained growth since 1986 when the IMF and World Bank succeeded in hijacking economic planning in Nigeria, or better put, when Nigeria stopped economic planning.

The proposed 10 per cent economic growth target is achievable, and if the accompanying fiscal and monetary measures are vigorously implemented, it can be surpassed given the country’s current massive infrastructural deficit of 20-25 per cent of GDP stock has compared to infrastructural stocks of middle income economies in the range of 70 per cent stock of GDP as well as the nation’s high unemployment rate.

The economic plan correctly singles out the digital economy as one low-hanging fruit for foreign exchange earnings as well as job creation. The country’s potential in this regard is even underestimated in the document. Nigeria is a latent cyber power, the seventh largest Internet user country in the world with over 104.4 million users. The global outsourcing market in the digital space is over $500bn. Nigeria has a big advantage, having a young, huge, fluent English speaking and writing population that is enthusiastic about coding and software development.

To be added to the digital sector as low-hanging fruit for the economy will be a programme of optimisation of Nigeria’s competitiveness, and efficiency in oil and gas as one of the sources of immediate cash for a growth-focused economic plan.

 The oil and gas sector was mentioned in passing in the ‘Renewed Hope 2023’ document because of an understandable bias for the next new economy. We just needed a few tweaks in structure and personnel, as well as an applicable fiscal regime in the oil and gas sector, to harvest our natural advantages in the remaining life of fossil fuel as an energy source.

Tinubu’s tax plan is superb; that is his turf. His industrial and manufacturing agenda are inspiring. His planned return of commodity boards is bold and welcoming. The absence of the commodities boards, in the past 30 something years, as a result of the pressure of the IMF for them to be scrapped, has seen Nigeria lose its competitive advantage in crops like cocoa, groundnuts, oil palm, cotton etc.

In summary, the Tinubu Economic Plan is a core progressive policy platform that will return the country to economic development; a path we travelled before in the first Republic and achieved phenomenal development.

It is the same path that countries like Malaysia, China and India have walked and recorded outstanding results. It is the path Samir Amin calls the path of ‘Autocentric National Development,’ away from the path of arrested development of the past four decades.

In the section on national security, I have only seen basic and routine recommendations apart from the promise of an integrated database. I understand that you cannot be detailed in a published document on security plans, but I would have loved to see some real meat.

I have not also seen a serious position on how Asiwaju intends to manage the diversity of the country at a time of great division.

Renewed Hope 2023 did not show as much depth and detail as we saw in the management of the economy in this equally important area. Perhaps this is a tactic to avoid difficult questions from his North-West supporters that his campaign appears to be seriously cultivating for their potentially huge votes. I hope this will not define his government even if he wins.

He needs to pay better attention to matters of inclusiveness and political balancing. Mobilising for economic growth will be a huge challenge in the absence of national cohesion, unity and peace.

Aside from the salient issue of not being convincing on the question of political balancing, key questions of devolution of powers and inclusivity, the Renewed Hope 2023 document is a welcome relief in a campaign season that has been clouded by inanities and the mundane.

The former Vice President and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar, now has to show the nation his own document. In fairness to him, he presented something fairly robust in 2019; whether that will suffice now is a different matter.

Mr Peter Obi, a major third candidate on the platform of the Labour Party, whose supporters have brought energy and enthusiasm, and has seen an increase in youth participation in voter registration, must now step forward. The nation will like to see and scrutinise his vision for a New Nigeria.

The nation will like to see more depth from him than the short snippets from his very energetic and creative “obidients.”

The bar has been raised by the launching of ‘Renewed Hope 2023.’

 Dwelling on the APC candidate’s health risks, a challenge faced by the PDP candidate, will not be of any value to Obi and the other younger candidates.

 Most Nigerians will rather follow frail-looking older men that are demonstrating grasp of issues and capacity rather than the younger candidates if all they can show is their physical fitness, emotive phrases, shallow monologues, a few unconvincing records of achievements, and young enthusiastic followers with no coherent body of ideas.

The real debate has started, let it continue!

Olawepo-Hashim is a 2009 Lord Max Beloff Prize winner in Global Affairs.