Tinubu and The Big Toes Behind Insecurity In Nigeria -By SKC Ogbonnia

Finally, insecurity is beginning to gain a measure of attention within the Nigerian government, thanks to the genius of Donald J. Trump. For a change, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is beginning to act as if the lives of the ordinary people matter. Yet, his initiatives so far are not only mere repetitions of redundant same-old policies and approach, the total effort is also profoundly superficial. The optics is like a boxer alone in a ring, shadowboxing, showboating, jumping, aiming and punching at an unseen opponent, claiming victory but failing to acknowledge that the true opponent is actually himself.

The point is that the actions of Tinubu since assuming power depict a man beholden to the special interests that constitute the integral part of the booming business of insecurity in Nigeria. This lends credence to the revelation that he had no “blueprint” on the insecurity ab initio to avoid stepping on the “many toes” behind the menace.

These toes are big and belong to very powerful people in the public and private sectors who reap huge benefits from the terrorist acts. They loom large through three major avenues.

The most common are the armed “foreign”Fulani herdsmen and bandits who kidnap individuals and demand money for their release. They owe their loyalty to the big toes who command enormous influence within the government and the larger society.

Several actions of the government reinforce the notion of its complicity or lack of seriousness. The most recent is the case of some school girls kidnapped a few weeks ago this last November 2025 in Kebbi State. The Tinubu government announced the release of 24 of these schoolgirls. It also praised security forces who were said to have rescued them, which is good. Yet, the regime never provided any information about the arrest or the punishment meted to the captors.

On the same day, the government declared that open grazing was banned henceforth. Though sudden and reckless in logistical terms, the long-awaited move was greeted with great joy within the populace. Not surprisingly, the same government made a dramatic U-turn and quickly renounced the move. Of course, the mixed messages are not for nothing. The traditional herdsmen, now infiltrated with foreign terrorists, are offshoots of the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN), a powerful Fulani pastoralist advocacy group that wields immense political influence in the vote-rich North. In Tinubu’s Nigeria, political power trumps life. It goes without saying that the president won’t be in a hurry to step on the influential toes sympathetic to the herdsmen before standing for re-election in 2027.

Another dimension is banditry, part of which the big toes use to orchestrate illegal mining in Northwest Nigeria. Various intel reports have fingered foreign groups, particularly the Chinese, as part of the ring. Like the herdsmen terrorists, these bandits and their collaborators often operate in the open. They are known to engage helicopters to facilitate their returns. It is also of a curious interest that Tinubu’s longtime close confidant, Dele Alake, is the minister who oversees mining in Nigeria. Yet, the regime appears to do nothing about the illegal activities despite public outcry. This pattern had provoked the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Interior, Adams Oshiomhole, to admonish government for failing to apply a consistent standard in law enforcement, calling for “exactly the same force” deployed against illegal oil bunkering in the Niger Delta” to tackle illegal mining and the associated banditry in the Northwest.

The dirtiest avenue yet belongs to military contracts. The entire security budget is usually huge. It is also replete with chronic corruption. For example, the Tinubu government has committed over 13 trillion naira ($9 billion dollars) for security since coming to power in 2023. This does not include another 17.5 trillion naira ($12 billion dollars) spent for pipeline security for the year 2024 alone. Yet, there are various assertions that the terrorists are better equipped than the Nigerian military. It is not breaking news to suggest that a greater chunk of this security money only goes to fatten the big toes.

But corruption with security contracts did not start with Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It even predated President Muhammadu Buhari. Upon coming to power, Buhari set up a presidential committee to probe the preceding administration of Goodluck Jonathan. It found that over $2 billion budgeted to purchase arms was embezzled through the office of the National Security Adviser. The report also indicated that part of the disbursed fund was diverted to the re-election campaign of Jonathan.

The presidential report went further to expose the politicians who benefited from the hush money. It also named and indicted over 300 private entities and prominent citizens, including military officers, that benefited from contract fraud. The security situation saw admirable improvement.

Sadly, the Buhari administration grew to become more corrupt than the Jonathan’s before it. Most of those indicted in the military contract hastily jumped to the ruling party and received reprieve. The security budget under Buhari would more than double with various analyses lamenting lack of accountability in defense spending. Yet, the general insecurity began to triple before he left office.

The business of insecurity has been booming since Tinubu assumed power. The enterprise is expected to rise exponentially after the Trump salvo. This is more troubling, especially considering there are zero checks and balances under the current de facto one-party legislature. Combine that with the irony that those expected to implement any new policy on insecurity are to be drawn from the same Tinubu regime, where cronyism and corruption baggage are a twin badge of honor.

The solution is not rocket science. Yes, the benefactors of insecurity are fighting back, desperate to sustain the status quo. But these people are not hidden. The terrorists themselves are not hidden. The modern technology and the arms to decimate them, as well as the personnel are at the beck and call of the government.

Mr. Tinubu should look in the mirror. The chronic insecurity is simply a lack of presidential will-power occasioned by a corrupt and compromised leadership which approaches security solely through a linear political lens of who and where rather than a standard, non-partisan strategy against crime. In short, the totality of Tinubu’s personality and politics has deeply polarized the country along religious, ethno-regional, and class lines. The objective fact is that the president has long lost his voice to the Nigerian people. This leadership deficit is so deep and so stale to redeem quickly enough to earn the trust needed to wage a meaningful fight against a fast-raging insurgency. It is on this backdrop that Nigeria should seek a measure of robust foreign military collaboration in whichever manner that can achieve the desired results. No cost or pride is greater than the cumulative human and economic costs of terrorism in the country over the past 16 years.

SKC Ogbonnia writes from Houston, TX, USA.