United Capital Predicts Further Drop in Nigeria’s Inflation to 15.48%

United Capital Plc has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will decline further to 15.48% in November 2025, continuing its downward trend from the 16.05% recorded in October 2025.

In its latest inflation outlook released on Tuesday, the firm’s research team, led by Chief Economist Ayo Akinwunmi, attributed the expected moderation to easing prices of key food items and a reduction in Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) costs.

According to the report:
“The easing of inflationary pressures was evident in the energy sector during November 2025.” It noted that the average price of Bonny Light crude dipped by 1.41%, sliding to $65.22 per barrel from $66.15 in October.

The analysts highlighted a notable drop in petrol prices:

• From ₦922 per litre at the end of October
• To ₦910 per litre in early November
• And further down to ₦900 per litre by month-end, following price cuts by Dangote Refinery

United Capital said:
“This drop in PMS prices helped ease inflationary strains on sensitive sectors, notably transportation, hospitality, and food services.”

In the food category, the firm reported mixed price movements. Its survey showed declines in:

• Local rice: –27.6%
• Maize: –21.72%
• Garri: –0.38%

Imported rice, however, rose by 2.4%, while the prices of sorghum, beans and yam remained largely stable.

Exchange rate volatility also influenced food prices. Despite the naira depreciating by 1.84% month-on-month—closing at ₦1,448.44 per US$ in November compared to ₦1,421.73 in October—the report noted that the monthly average still reflected an appreciation.

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