Who is A Failed State? -By Roy Biakpara

A failed state is one that gets to a point where basic conditions & responsibilities of a sovereign government no longer function properly. A state CAN ALSO fail if the government loses its LEGITIMACY even if it is performing its functions properly.

Of course there are criticisms of the definition and of the meaning but that is not the essence of the article. Nobody wants to be given a bad label anyway – see third world countries now being called developing nations for political correctness. But they forget to take out the dummy from the babies’ mouths.

Traits often exhibited by a failing state include a weak central government; so weak it has little or no control over much of its territory regarding security typically there is a non-provision of public services. It hides in plain sight, widespread corruption, and criminality, uses the intervention of state and non-state actors, there is the appearance of refugees and/or forced movement of people and sharp economic decline. In some cases, foreign military intervention can occur or revolutions as in recent cases in Tunisia, Egypt, and Sudan. No wonder one of such protests was quashed in a popular West African nation two months ago.

The World Bank suggests way to detect failing states by looking for signs of diminishing legitimacy and/or effectiveness of the regime. Along those lines, the key indicators of the deterioration can well be found within the political system, the economy, provision of social services, and basic security.

Political:

Effectiveness – elections are violent, whose results are contested, or judged to be improper and unfair BY INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS; attempted or completed coup d’etat; 3 or more presidents or prime ministers in one year; government revenue 10% or less of GDP (NGR currently at 7.4% – source https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/NGA_GGR_NGDP-Nigeria-General-Government-Revenue-of-GDP); government loses effective control of at least 5% of its territory or at least 1% of its population.

Legitimacy – one or more groups are systematically excluded from political access, or political office, or full citizenship; political protests or strikes involving at least 0.5% of the population and repeated for 10 or more days. (#FreeSowore).

Economic:

Effectiveness – Country is low or mid-income by World Bank classification, and one or more of the following obtains: GDP/capita has fallen for 3 or more years, or is lower than 5 years ago; national debt is over 10% of GDP; inflation has accelerated for 3 or more years and is 30% or more per year; currency has been devalued 50% or more in the last 3 years; unemployment is over 20% for three or more years;

Legitimacy – One group (elite faction, ethnic group or subgroup, or family or cronies of state leaders) is corruptly dominating the economy for their private benefit; one or more groups face large-scale and systematic economic discrimination; state is taking 45% or more of GDP.

Social:

Effectiveness – Primary school enrolment is less than 60% and growing less than 5% per year; government fails to act to alleviate consequences of natural or accident disasters.

Legitimacy – specific regions or groups of population are deliberately not provided with public services that are provided to others; specific groups are prevented from practicing their important customs or language; government seen as too dependent on foreign support or otherwise betraying or departing from nationalist aspirations.

Security:

Effectiveness – More than 1,000 people killed in political violence in prior 3 years; more than 1% of population displaced by political violence in prior 3 years.

Legitimacy – One or more groups systematically subjected to violence or deliberately not provided security by the state.

J. Goldstone in his paper Pathways to State Failure from which most of this is drawn, identifies five possible pathways to state failure:

1. Escalation of communal group (ethnic or religious) conflicts

e.g. Rwanda, Liberia, Yugoslavia, Lebanon

2. State predation (corrupt or crony corralling of resources at the expense of other groups)

e.g. Nicaragua, Philippines

3. Regional or guerrilla rebellion

e.g. Colombia, Vietnam

4. Democratic Collapse (into Civil war, Revolution, Civil Protests or by Coup d’etat)

e.g. Nigeria, Madagascar

5. Succession or Reform Crisis in Authoritarian States

e.g. Indonesia under Suharto, Iran under Shah, Soviet Union under Gorbachev

Each of the above represents a “mode” of state failure.

Failing and failed states exact heavy tolls on their own people except for a few. The usual tactic is to shout and cite Sovereignty! for any criticism from the international community.

All what have been described are surface symptoms and indicators. Deep-dive indicators include:

• Security Apparatus & law enforcement recklessness
• Factionalised Elites
• Ethnic Group(s) Grievance
• Economic Decline and Property
• Uneven Economic Development
• Human Flight and Brain Drain
• Decline in Public Services
• Human Rights and Rule of Law
• Demographic Pressures
• Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDP)
• External Intervention in extreme cases e.g. Idi Amin’s Uganda, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Gaddafi’s Libya

It is impossible to lay claim to a magic wand that solves the issue of state failure. This might be due to the divergent variables and interests involved. For those who have made noteworthy attempts, the focus has been centred on state effectiveness and legitimacy. The below guideline is contained within J. Goldstone’s framework:

Determine whether the state is low on effectiveness, legitimacy, or both.

If low on legitimacy but high on effectiveness, seek out ways to re-establish legitimacy such as previous popular leaders or, if the conditions are right, ELECTIONS.

If high on legitimacy but low on effectiveness, long-term aid and technical support is needed to help build the state’s capacity to govern. Short-term fixes and OVER-PROMISISNG will only undermine legitimacy and hasten failure. Even the UN is not so sure about the long-term aid part (see https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/06/15/saving-failed-states/)

Interventions must incorporate both factors to ensure state stability.

If state collapse is imminent, security and political legitimacy must take precedence, as without them no further progress can be made.