A Deeper Look At Nigeria’s Elections -By Labaran Yusuf

This weekend, voters in Nigeria – Africa’s most populous country and largest economy – will go to the polls to choose their next president and federal legislators nationwide. They will return later on March 2, 2019 to also elect governors for 29 of the country’s thirty-six states, alongside state legislators.

Faced with many problems including unemployment, security, bad governance, endemic corruption, and the economy, a record number of more than 84 million voters were registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Nigeria’s electoral body, indicating the stakes are high in the forthcoming general elections.

While many candidates (including young people this time around) are vying for the top office in the oil-rich nation, there is no doubt the February 16, 2019 polls, which is the sixth presidential elections since the end of military rule in 1999, would be mainly between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and leading opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

A two-horse race

Even though the presidential candidates in the two-horse race are campaigning on the same promise of restoring security, fixing the economy and fight against corruption that featured in the last elections. This time around, however, unlike in 2015, when Buhari was pitted against Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian, both Buhari, and Abubakar are Fulani Muslims from northern Nigeria. Their running mates are Christians from the south. It is in line with the unwritten rule that the presidency rotates every 8 years between the mainly Muslim north and the largely Christian south.

In Nigeria, region and religion play significant roles in politics. Experts believe the informal agreement diminishes the risk of election-related violence that usually characterizes presidential contests in which a Christian from the south competes with a Muslim from the north of the country – a classic example of which is the post-election violence of 2011 that claimed the lives of at least 800 people, following allegations of vote-rigging. However, the possibility of violence in states where there are sought-after posts up for grabs, and many races laced with communal tensions and bitter personal rivalries, still remains high. The threat of fake news, voter suppression, and vote-buying also remain a challenge nationwide.

Buhari, 76, the first opposition leader to unseat an incumbent in Nigeria’s history since the return to democracy in 1999, is seeking re-election for another four-year term. The former general, known for his anti-corruption campaign and war against indiscipline, was a military ruler for 20 months in the 1980s. After three failed attempts for the presidency, he defeated then-president Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP in the divisive polls of 2015. At the time, Cambridge Analytica, the controversial data analysis firm implicated in last year’s Facebook scandal was blamed for stocking ethnic and sectarian tension and smearing of Buhari on behalf of the Goodluck campaign.

Atiku Abubakar, on the other hand, is a wealthy businessman and was former vice president of Nigeria under President Olusegun Obasanjo’s PDP government (1999-2007). The two fell out in 2006, and over the years, Obasanjo has called Abubakar untrusted and corrupt. Abubakar ever since has made several unsuccessful attempts – through different political parties – at the presidency. He was a former ally of Buhari between 2015 and 2017. It remains to be seen whether the 72-year-old founding member of the PDP will this time around under the party’s ticket make a difference at the polls, even as his former boss, Obasanjo, endorses him.

Issues likely to decide the polls outcome    

Since his last four years in office, Buhari has received mixed reactions from Nigerians. While others commend him for revamping the country’s dying infrastructure, diversifying the oil-dependent economy to other sectors like agriculture and initiating social investment programmes to alleviate poverty, others have blamed him for Nigeria’s weak economy and increasing insecurity.

Under Buhari’s watch, Nigeria slipped into recession in 2016, the worst in more than 20 years, following the global fall of oil and commodity prices. The country exited the recession a year later partly due to an increase in oil prices and the government’s focus on other sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, and trade.  Presently, Nigeria’s unemployment rate stands at 23.1 percent, up from 18.1 percent in 2017, according to the country’sNational Bureau of Statistics. Also, four out of every 10 people in the country’s workforce are either unemployed or underemployed.

Last year, a study by the Brookings Institution found out an estimated 87 million people in the country live in extreme poverty, thus making Nigeria the world’s poverty capital, ahead of India. Meanwhile, the Atiku Abubakar campaign has focused on Buhari’s failings to lure disgruntled voters on the promise of reviving the economy and to “get Nigeria work again”. But Abubakar’s past record with corruptionand his party’s previous 16-year rule, which was marked by misrule and plundering of the nation’s resources, leave many Nigerians skeptical.

Buhari’s anti-corruption campaign has also been under scrutiny. Though major successes have been recorded as corrupt high-profile politicians and civil servants have been prosecuted and convicted, with stolen funds and assets recovered. Critics accuse him of only going after political opponents while sparing his allies.    

But the most damaging of all issues the president is facing is the growing insecurity. Despite his government’s declaration last year that it had “technically defeated” Boko Haram, the insurgent group that has waged a deadly decade-old conflict in the northeast, has regrouped and in recent months intensified attacks ahead of the elections. Due to the insurgency, more than 27,000 people have been killed and some two million others displaced in the past 10 years. A further 7.7 million people are in need of assistance, making it one of the severe humanitarian crises in the world.

In central Nigeria, long-running disputes between nomadic herding and sedentary farming communities over decreasing arable land have escalated in the past year. Sometimes, these clashes deteriorate into communal violence. The farmers are largely Christians of various ethnicity while the herders are mainly Fulani Muslims. More than one thousand people have been killed in the fighting some people have accused Buhari of not doing enough to put an end to.

Cattle rustling and kidnapping by armed bandits in the northwest have also killed scores of people and displaced thousands. Likewise in the south, oil militants and secessionist movements continue to pose a significant security threat. All these conflicts have left security agencies overstretched across the country,leading to an increase in crimes across major cities.

Who is expected to win?

Atiku Abubakar is predicted to perform well in the Middle Belt central states affected by the herder-farmer disputes.He is also favored to make big gains in the traditionally PDP southern Niger Delta region and the Igbo-dominated southeast, the home region of his running mate Peter Obi. However, it is unlikely for him to mount any serious challenge in the country’s north and southwest against Buhari.

Despite the defections that rocked Buhari’s APC last year, his alliances with powerful political elites in the country’s mainly Yoruba southwest remains largely intact. His running mate Yemi Osinbajo is from the region. His ruling APC also controls most of the states in Nigeria. In the northern part of the country, where he enjoys a cult following, Buhari is still popular and is often referred to as Mai Gaskiya (Hausa for trustworthy one) and Baba (Hausa for father). Additionally, his home region, the northwest, has the highest number of registered voters in the country, followed by his allies’ southwest region.

Finally, unlike the polls of 2015, in which religion and region played significant roles in determining who wins the election. This time around, past credentials and present alliances appear to take the lead. And as such, Buhari seems to be going into the polls with an upper hand over Abubakar.

Nevertheless, whoever emerges a winner from the polls will face the daunting task of tackling corruption, growing insecurity, unemployment, and the economy.   

Labaran Yusuf is a freelance writer and researcher based in Jos, Plateau State.