Atiku and the Presidency: Six Attempts, One Lingering Dream From Abiola to ADC

On a quiet morning in Yola years ago, a former campaign aide watched Atiku Abubakar study a map of Nigeria laid out on a wooden table. This was long before social media campaigns and digital war rooms, when politics relied on personal meetings, negotiation and long nights of persuasion. Atiku tapped the map slowly, state by state, as though tracing a future that seemed promised yet persistently out of reach.

For Atiku Abubakar, the presidency has never been a vague aspiration. It has been deeply personal—patient, consuming and relentless. From his days alongside Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola, witnessing a historic mandate annulled, to his current positioning within the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku’s political journey has revolved around one uncompleted mission: becoming Nigeria’s president.

He has contested six times and lost six times. As 2027 draws nearer, he is preparing once again. To supporters, it is courage and resilience. To critics, it is exhaustion disguised as persistence. To Atiku himself, it remains unfinished business.

The Abiola Imprint
Those close to Atiku during the Abiola era say June 12 left a lasting mark on him. At the time, he was a businessman-turned-politician who believed in democratic transition and civilian rule. Watching Abiola win—and lose—the presidency almost simultaneously taught him two enduring lessons: power is never handed over freely, and timing can derail destiny.

When democracy returned in 1999, Atiku moved quickly, aligning with Olusegun Obasanjo under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and serving eight years as vice president. During that period, he built national networks, attracted loyalists and cultivated goodwill across regions, particularly in the South, where northern politicians rarely enjoyed broad acceptance.

But ambition strained alliances. By 2007, Atiku had fallen out with Obasanjo and entered a cycle that would define his later career: switching parties to secure tickets, contesting elections, losing narrowly or decisively, and retreating—often to Dubai—after defeat.

A Familiar Pattern
PDP. Action Congress. All Progressives Congress. Back to PDP. Out again. Now ADC. Critics argue that Atiku’s movement across parties reflects a politician focused on elections rather than institution-building. Supporters counter that Nigeria’s parties are transactional and rarely inspire lasting loyalty.

Still, the pattern is hard to ignore. After defeats, Atiku has rarely stayed within a party long enough to rebuild it from the grassroots. Once elections end, he often fades from public view until the next cycle begins. In the South, that absence became noticeable. Once regarded as a bridge between regions and a vocal advocate of restructuring, trust gradually eroded. By 2023, tensions reached breaking point.

The 2023 Fallout
Atiku’s emergence as the PDP presidential candidate in 2022 proved deeply divisive. With power expected to rotate south after eight years of Muhammadu Buhari, many party leaders objected to a northern candidate emerging while the party chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, also remained from the North.

Despite warnings from governors and elders, Atiku neither stepped aside nor compelled Ayu to resign. Five PDP governors openly rebelled. Campaign structures weakened in key states, and the party went into the election fractured. The defeat left lingering damage, defections and internal battles that continue to shape PDP’s future. Some insiders describe that moment as when Atiku chose ambition over unity—and lost both.

Supporters Speak
Not all agree with that assessment. Abdul-Aziz Na’ibi Abubakar, an entrepreneur and political associate, said:
“I proudly support Atiku Abubakar for the presidency due to his authentic and principled character, unwavering commitment to fostering inclusivity, and dedication to mentoring the youth.
“As a visionary leader, he possesses a clear readiness to address Nigeria’s and Africa’s pressing challenges with innovative and practical solutions.
“I earnestly pray that Almighty Allah grants him victory in the 2027 election and blesses us with long life, sound health, and prosperity to witness his transformative eight-year tenure as president.”

Another associate, Demola Olanrewaju, argued that party structure alone does not determine victory.
“His Excellency, Atiku Abubakar, is a former Vice President. He is well experienced… he will draw support not just from within the ADC but also from the PDP and the APC if and when he decides to contest,” he said.
“It’s not about ADC having structure. We saw what Peter Obi did in the last election. It’s about getting the votes.”

Persistence or Fatigue?
Now in his late seventies, Atiku faces growing questions about age, relevance and timing. Critics describe another attempt as political fatigue masquerading as resilience. Olanrewaju dismissed that view:
“We don’t give up on our aspirations… As long as he’s healthy and fit, he will put himself forward. There shouldn’t be any controversy about that, except that this is politics.”

Others are less forgiving. Lere Olayinka, media aide to FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, said:
“Someone should tell our serial presidential election contester that Wike has no regret for ensuring that he failed and will make sure he fails again and again.”

From younger voices, impatience is sharper. APGA National Youth Leader, Eze-Onyebuchi Chukwu, said:
“Rather than aspiring to run again in 2027, Atiku should rally his allies to support a young, credible Nigerian. Is he the only one fit to be president?”

The ADC Dilemma
Now in ADC, Atiku operates within a party still defining itself and already debating zoning. Peter Obi has suggested power should shift south in 2027, while Atiku remains the most prominent northern figure pushing to run.

The risk is clear: will southern voters, already wary after 2023, rally behind him again? Or will ADC fracture before it stabilizes? Atiku’s camp believes experience, resources and national networks can overcome weaknesses.

Atiku himself struck a conciliatory tone recently, telling BBC Hausa:
“My being in the 2027 race does not prevent anyone from contesting. If a vibrant and widely accepted younger candidate emerges, I am willing to step aside.”

Whether that openness is tactical or genuine remains uncertain.

An Unfinished Journey
The image of Atiku tracing Nigeria on a table in Yola lingers—state by state, region by region. Always close, never quite there. His story is not simply about electoral defeats, but about ambition outpacing coalition-building, alliances formed and broken, and a future that appears less forgiving than the past.

In 2027, Nigerians will decide whether persistence deserves one final reward—or whether history has already delivered its verdict.

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