Every Decade Nigeria Degrades: Arresting The Slide -By Kenny Oladipo

Duly evolved and developed societies have a common trait; THE UPGRADE MENTALITY. The successor generation is typically a notable upgrade on its predecessor. Each generation is an improvement on the one before it. This aggregate forward-looking mentality crystallized into the civilized societies that now exist in select countries. Whenever these societies came short of the organizing principles of their founding, they corrected course, retooled old processes, revamped institutions and restored faith in the constitution. In other words, these countries learned how to fail forward through sheer force of will, the supremacy of human conscience and the buoyancy of human spirit. Undeterred by moments of wars, adversities, hunger, despair and travails that hitched a hike with them on their national pilgrimage to a better day; they advanced nonetheless.

At the turn of the 20th century, Europe got caught up in a supremacy battle heralding the first world war between 1914 and 1919. Western civilization came under severe stress and nearly unraveled as military kinetic actions dominated the entire continent. At the war’s resolution, Germany came out worse off as a nation. Article 231 of Treaty of Versailles labeled as the ‘War Guilt Clause’ placed blame for the war on Germany and its reparation as punishment. As a result, Germany came under a serious debt burden.

When Weimar’s government defaulted on payments, France and Belgium took over assets inside Germany. French and Belgian forces occupied parts of Germany for years. Faced with a choice to either lay down, rollover and gaze at their navels in despair or take their destinies in their hands to reclaim their country. German people chose the latter and within three decades, Germany not only pulled back from the precipice, it emerged the largest economy in all of Europe. This feat was made possible by Germany’s national philosophy of improving generation on generation.

Similarly, at the height of the Great Economic Depression in the 1930s, American industrial production fell by 45%. Many companies went belly up, accompanied with widespread unemployment and poverty in the country. Hope dimmed as days wore on. Barely turning a corner from the Great Depression another unplanned event showed up. The second world war landed on America’s shores in 1941 at Pearl Harbor, as Japanese sorties sank a fifth of US naval capacity within hours. At this moment of truth, Americans as in the days of their Revolution looked to one another, drew strength from the collective, refined principles, amended laws, rethought processes, outthought economic woes and outfought mortal adversaries. By the end of the war, a nation that could barely feed itself emerged the most powerful and most prosperous in human history.

Between 1959 and 1961, a devastating famine called the ‘Great Chinese Famine’ ravaged mainland China. Tens of millions of Chinese died of starvation. It was a catastrophe of epic proportions never seen in Asia, not even during the second world war did China suffer such magnitude of human losses. Pressed by the pangs of hunger, the Chinese government repealed the ‘Great Leap’ policy that triggered the event. Chinese people went back to the farms and became self-sufficient in food production. The generation that endured hunger refused to surrender and let adversities of the moment rob them of the opportunity to make a lasting change for the next generation. Fast forward to 2023, China is now the second largest economy in the world, able to feed itself with some to spare. In context, 1960s Nigeria was literally feasting while China was fasting. Fortune has since swapped positions between both countries decades after. This predication is warranted to properly situate the unique adverse conditions powerful nations overcame before becoming the amazing examples of prosperity, tranquility and power of this century.

Unfortunately, since 1960, Nigeria has declined sequentially year on year, and decade on decade. Preceding decade is always better than the succeeding one. This explains why the favorite words spoken by most senior citizens are “the good old days.” Relishing the period of abundance, peace and development of the evaporated past. While nostalgia about the past is appropriate, it shouldn’t go beyond its episodic value. A nation that remembers its past glory with such fondness is a nation that is yet to make meaningful progress. For instance, you may like your 1960’s automobiles, but not to the point of swapping them for your 2023 cars if you are not an antique aficionado. Or 1970’s TVs for the latest electronic gadgets. The point then is, if we still relish the constitution of the 1950s and 1960s era in 2023 and are willing to swap it for the present constitution; then it’s safe to deduce that the constitution in operation in 2023 isn’t an improvement by any measure. Folks, the race to the bottom is already in motion and the countdown began on January 15, 1966, when the military suspended the 1963 constitution and established a unitary system of government.

The fundamental structural imbalance and distortion in the political system came from state creation. In 1960, Nigeria as a country began as a tripodal political power (North, East and West). Midwest became the fourth power stand later on and political power was shared among the regions. Unwittingly, the power balance was altered and shifted during the first state creation exercise by the Gowon regime. In the process, the power equilibrium mechanism that underpinned the new Republic at Independence was lost.

The iterative agitations and restiveness in sections of the country are akin to debilitating vibrations in a machine or a system that’s either about to reach its end of life or has some loose clamps. After over six decades of self rule and two decades of uninterrupted democratic rule, it is apparent that the country is in serious need of a constitutional rework. No patchwork or half- measure will suffice at this point. The degradation has gone far beyond replacement of damaged parts (constitutional amendments), what’s required now is scheduled overhaul (comprehensive constitutional rewrite).

In nuclear science, a concept called half-life (exponential decay) is used to quantify the mass of an unstable substance such as uranium. This substance degrades after a finite number of years to half its original mass. This degradation is measured by a mathematical constant known as the ‘Decay Constant’. Hence, if any substance undergoes half-life then there’s a Decay Constant in its composition. So, practically speaking if Nigeria isn’t improving decade on decade then there’s without doubt a ‘Decay Constant’ in her present configuration. Until the ‘Decay Constant’ is designed out of the system, the exponential decay will only accelerate. This is a natural phenomenon.

When the US Constitution was being written in 1787, Thomas Jefferson (later the third US president 1801 to 1809 and the principal author of the Declaration of Independence in 1776) wrote these words “a Constitution naturally expires at the end of 19 years, if it be enforced longer, it is an act of force and not of right” to James Madison (popularly called the father of the US Constitution and later the fourth US president 1809 to 1817). The Jeffersonian reasoning was that every new generation must be allowed to make a significant input to the Constitution to address present realities. The 1999 Constitution is now 23 years old and it’s safe to say that it’s due for an overhaul. After a new comprehensive rewrite is done to the current Constitution, then periodic amendments can apply as new national challenges arise. The ongoing National Assembly amendments to the 1999 Constitution cannot rectify the obvious inadequacies in the founding document. It should be allowed to proceed as an interim corrective measure while a New Constitution is under consideration and possible deliberation.

The most viable fix remains a comprehensive constitutional rewrite. However, given the enormity and the time-consuming nature of such endeavor, it’s best to focus on short term and medium term interventions in meaningful areas of our national life. A few socio-economic, security, policy and political steps that can be taken with minimal fuss at both the executive and legislative levels either by the present administration or the incoming government are herewith identified.

1. Hydrogel Soil as a tool for desertification reversal in Northern Nigeria, with Ranching and Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Production.

The main elephant in the room on matters of national security has been the effect of climate change and its attendant economic disruptions in the country. As a consequence of climate- induced dislocations, clashes between itinerant herders and indigenous farmers have become a major national security headache. Gross desertification in Northern Nigeria has quickened the pace at which herders/pastoralists move southward with their livestock and understandably so. This mass movement of large animals has sometimes caused untold damages to sedentary farmers that have seen their crops pillaged by cows on the move. Criminals with dangerous weapons have also milked this migration to unleash terror on some communities all across the country.

What is a hydrogel? Hydrogel beads are small plastic blobs that can absorb a thousand times their weight in water. Scientists have tried to use them as tiny underground reservoirs of water to aid with the irrigation of agricultural soil and to grow drought-resistant crops. With the deployment of hydrogel beads in most parts of Northern Nigeria, the vegetation and pasture that herders seek in southern parts of the country can be replicated within a few months with adequate investment. The Federal Ministries of Agriculture, Water Resources and Science & Technology need to work in tandem to drive this process. Another upside in rearing cows in designated locations is the ability to manage greenhouse gases emissions by these animals. An average cow emits 1.5 to 2.5 metric tons of carbon dioxide each year equivalent to half the annual output of an average car. Similarly, 12% of food intake by an average cow is lost to methane production because of its four-stomach structure (Reticulum, Rumen, Omasum and Abomasum) and the resulting digestive methane production is released through eructation and flatulence.

Methane is a very aggressive GHG that has a more immediate impact on the environment than carbon dioxide.”Methane has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere. Even though CO2 has a longer-lasting effect, methane sets the pace for warming in the near term. At least 25% of today’s warming is driven by methane from human actions.”(source: Environmental Defense Fund). Methane emissions are the second largest cause of global warming after carbon dioxide.
Studies have shown that adding seaweed or Mootral feed into cows’ menu can reduce their methane production by more than 70%.

Ranching can help the regulatory body monitor and mitigate methane releases from the cows to the environment. Nigeria is one of the top methane emitters in the world due to crude oil production. While the government has invested heavily in regulatory oversight to curb emissions in the oil industry, methane emissions in the livestock industry haven’t received commensurate attention. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates the current cow population in the country to be about 13.9 million and expected to eclipse 53.6 million by 2050. At 13.9 million (not counting other ruminant populations), the carbon dioxide tonnage released per year to the atmosphere ranges between 20,850 MT and 34,750 MT (equivalent CO2 emissions of about 7 million cars per year). By aggregating these animals in ranches their feeds can be optimized to reduce methane production and emission by 70% or better. To fight climate change, open grazing needs to be gradually phased out. Government is moving in the right direction with the Livestock Transformation Program, and the broader goal has to be on reducing GHG emissions to the environment by the Livestock industry.

Zapping cow manure by blasting it with plasma or artificial lightning has been found to reduce methane emission in cow slurry by 99% and ammonia emission by 95%. The odorless brown liquid byproduct called Nitrogen Enhanced Organic Fertilizer can be used to boost crop production to augment fertilizer distribution in the North. A Norwegian company has built a machine that zaps cow manure, converts it to odorless liquid fertilizer and packages it. This is a useful technology to explore by the Federal Government. If interested in this prospect then reach out. Additional benefit of aggregate ranching of cows is renewable natural gas (RNG) production. RNG derived from organic waste, specifically cow manure is the latest green energy initiative. Major energy companies are already making hay of this energy source. Northern Nigeria can begin to generate its own natural gas from cow manure collected from the ranches and then use it to power homes and industries in the region without having to rely on gas supply from the South. There’s a new world of opportunity in stopping open grazing and utilizing ranching all across the North instead. Pastoralists/herders and their umbrella Association should embrace this new idea and maximize the economic output available in the livestock market. This is a viable pathway to energy independence in the North in particular and in Nigeria as a whole. It’s prudent to explore this prospect. Ranching isn’t just about national security, it’s also about food security, environmental security and energy security too.

2. Corruption Mitigation through Integrity Bonus Payment (IBP).

Monetize integrity and commoditize good behavior. Adopt same model as the Whistleblower Model, where anyone who gives an actionable tip on financial impropriety gets paid a percentage of the recovered loot. Create an Independent Private Audit Commission (IPAC) coordinated by PwC, KPMG, Deloitte etc. to audit every political office holder every two years. If the individual passes the audits, then pay out a sizable integrity bonus. If the individual fails audits, ask for a full refund of the certified financial discrepancies before the next auditing period. Failure to repay within that timeline triggers an automatic referral to the EFCC for prosecution. Referred cases should be fast tracked and completed within six months by a dedicated special anti-corruption court. The Presidency, National Judicial Council, CSOs, NBA, Students and Women organizations, and ultimately the people should apply sufficient pressure to bring this idea to manifest reality in the country. INEC should also require corruption clearance certificates to be issued by IPAC from every candidate seeking a second term in office. Any such candidate that cannot present a satisfactory corruption clearance certificate is labeled an Integrity Risk on the published INEC candidates list.

The best way to moderate an out-of-control system is to set triggers by setting intervals. For example, to control over-speeding in certain neighborhoods speed bumps or breakers are placed at regular intervals along the road. No one needs to plead with the driver to slow down. By the time the individual hits two or three speed bumps in quick succession, reflexes will intervene. And autonomic muscle memory will reflexively activate in anticipation, the next time the driver drives through the same spot. Therefore, having periodic audits of political office holders improve the chances of reining in runaway corruption and embezzlement in the current political system.

3. Adopt Zip Code or Postcode Model.

Developed nations understand the importance of discretization over discretion when it comes to urban development and resource distribution for maximum impact. The US adopted the zip code system, the UK called it postcode and China named it the Hukou system. Regardless of the classification, the basic principles are the same. School districts, targeted public assistance, housing interventions, public works and so on are allocated along these delineations for maximum impact. Nigeria ought to adopt this concept as well to modernize the current social intervention programs of the government. Fortunately, the system is already in place but it’s yet to be mainstreamed as a coherent national policy. INEC conducts elections and collates results at the ward levels in every local government area in the country. Each ward has defined geographic demarcation and population size mapped out. All the government needs to do now is to create a unique numbering system for each ward in the country in alphabetical order beginning from Abia State and ending at Zamfara State. This modest tweak can become a massive tool of growth when integrated into the economic master plan of the nation.

4. Democratization of revenue allocation: Apply Inflation Correction Factor (ICF) and Supplement Population/Landmass Calculation with Population Density Calculation.

Pay out state allocation per inflation rate in each state. 100 naira value in Lagos isn’t the same value as 100 naira in Ekiti. Therefore, the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) should set a unique base pay on a state by state basis and then send additional plus-up payment to states with higher inflation rates. This will ensure that the real value of money is allocated not just the nominal top-line value. For example, in upstream drilling operations, total drill collar weight is not available to load the drill bit in fluid-drilled holes due to buoyancy effect on the drillstring in the fluid. In other words, drillstring’s weight in air of 100 lbm will become 87.3 lbm in the annulus when a drilling mud weight of 8.3 lbm/gal (the lowest mud weight in the MW chart) is used because of buoyancy correction factor. The available drillstring’s weight further reduces to 63.3 lbm if mud weight of 24 lbm/gal (the highest mud weight in the oilfield) is used instead. This reduced weight now becomes what’s called the Buoyed Weight, and all downhole simulations are based on the Buoyed Weight not on the initial weight in air. Otherwise, drilling parameters will be off the charts and become useless in predicting BHA wellbore behavior and the overall drilling dynamics. This is the same way high inflation rate per locality diminishes the real value of money allocated to that locality. Hence, RMAFC should apply Inflation Correction Factor (ICF) to state allocation to ensure that the proper value is transferred to each federating unit on a monthly basis.

Any state whose inflation rate as calculated by NBS is above the National Average gets a plus-up payment according to the rate differential. And this is going to be a dynamic scoring framework due to seasonality of inflation rate itself. Which means that, it’s only in months a state’s inflation rate exceeds the National Average that the state gets a boost. Revenue allocation on the basis of population and landmass should be reviewed and supplemented with population density instead. For example, Lagos and Kano both have identical populations, but a significant landmass disparity. For that reason Lagos earns less on landmass calculation but suffers the most for its population density. Pressure on infrastructure and the environment is more pronounced in Lagos than in any other states, and that reality ought to reflect in the revenue formula. This idea is a win-win for all stakeholders.

5. Independent Candidacy.

To attract more qualified individuals into the political process the country needs to provide a pathway for politically unaffiliated persons to participate without any political party’s sponsorship. The Electoral Act of 2022 and Section 131 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) should be tinkered to accommodate this concept. The introduction of NIN along with Voter Registration Number and NCC database for SIM cards can be leveraged to accelerate its realization. Oftentimes, interested professionals without political affiliation are locked out of the electoral process because there’s no provision for independent candidacy. This option needs to be reviewed and adopted for future elections. Anyone who meets a minimum threshold set by INEC should have his or her name on the ballot (A proposal on how to digitally pull this idea off was sent to the INEC chairman’s office a few months back; yet to hear back).

The cliche “join a political party” often used by political bigwigs in trying to woo people into the political arena is somewhat a subtle way of suppressing political ambitions of immediately ready, willing, and able technocrats and professionals because they have to join a queue in the existing major parties. Before it gets to their turn the will to serve may have drastically dissipated. Also, joining a relatively new political party comes with an inherent disadvantage that diminishes the odds of winning an election. Therefore, any candidate who can amass political support independently on his or her own brand and name recognition should be given a chance to stand for an election without the need to join a popular political party only to queue up for decades.

6. Insert MSMEs in the Supply Chains of the Imported Items at Source.

The challenges arrayed against the country appear unsolvable because oftentimes, some national planners eager to display their fanciful certificates tend to lean on the already beleaguered levers of government to bite more than the system can handle at any given time. Thereby, overloading the system in the process. What the country needs are homegrown common sense solutions. That’s why I’m proposing a new brand of economics that I loosely termed Owanbenomics. The simple idea is rooted in inserting the country’s manufacturing sector, agro-allied businesses, and the cottage industry in the supply chains of the goods that the country imports. It’s nothing complicated. For instance, if a textile mill in Switzerland is exporting laces to Lagos (the undisputed international HQ of Owanbe), then that textile mill in Switzerland has to source and buy minimum 5% of the raw cotton required for the manufacture of the laces coming into the country. Otherwise, the government will block such imports.

Europeans and Asians don’t typically wear laces or ankara and would most likely comply with the requirements to avoid any significant adverse bottom line impact. What this policy initiative means for the economy and job creation is massive. For example, the underperforming Kaduna Textile Mills could hum back to life along with its own domestic supply chains as demand for cotton rises from foreign textile mills exporting products into the Nigerian market as a consequence of the new government mandate. Cotton farmers and associated MSMEs would receive a major boost. Transportation hubs may spring up around cotton farms and pre- processing centers. Government may also lend a hand by allowing military cargo planes to deliver processed cotton bales from Kaduna Textile Mills to end users in Europe or Asia to lower cost and give the local suppliers a competitive edge. Over time, these textile mills may see business sense in acquiring Kaduna Textile Mills or building a new one in the country and shift full production of laces and other clothing materials meant for the Nigerian market to the country.

The same concept can be introduced into the Air Conditioning Systems market as well. As an example, if LG or Samsung is importing ACs into the Nigerian market, then the air filters in those ACs coming into the country must be made in the country. Interestingly, the manufacturing process in Paper Mills is identical to that of AC filters manufacturing process. A retrofit of the manufacturing plant may however be required to optimize production. Iwopin Paper Mills and other Paper Mills around the country along with their local supply chains may see an uptick in business activities as well. There’s no need to mandate LG or Samsung to build the ACs in the country but ensure that a part of the AC is manufactured in the country. Those companies can assemble the complete parts anywhere they want afterwards. Ultimately, the electricity situation has to be addressed (refer to my opinion piece on the power sector titled “Mayday! Mayday!! A distress call from the unreliable power sector” published online). This is just a snippet of the concept. National planners may flesh it out, put meat on the bone and broaden the scope as appropriate.

Now, back to the constitutional matters, there are knotty legal questions that are unresolved by the 1999 Constitution that need prompt resolution. For example, the commands and structures of the Police Force are solely controlled by the federal government, yet Federal Police is used to enforce state criminal laws. This is an administrative aberration in a state-denominated democratic republic and from the standpoint of law. Brilliant legal minds in the country could test this question “can Federal Police enforce state-centric/state-specific criminal laws?” at the courts up to the Supreme Court. If yes, under what authority does the Federal Police derive such powers in a constitutional federation or in the 1999 Constitution. If nay, then a constitutional workaround has to be in place to remedy the legal loophole. It is inconsistent with the principle of true federalism and separation of powers to accept or tolerate a Federal Police Force that’s operating outside its constitutional powers. Chapter VII, Section (7) of the 1963 Constitution defined the constitutional provision granting Regions some enforcement powers at the local levels, “Nothing in this section shall prevent the legislature of a Region from making provisions for the maintenance by any native authority or local government authority established for a province or any province of a police force for employment within that province.” Section (8) clarified what a province was, “In this section ‘province’ means any area that was a province on the thirtieth day of September, 1954.” Unfortunately, Part III: Supplemental B section of the 1999 Constitution establishing the Nigeria Police Force is a direct lift of Chapter VII of the 1963 Constitution, but deliberately omitted Section (7) thereof. Granted, the country no longer operates under a regional democracy, however, since states are now recognized as federating units in a presidential democracy, then, a hybrid version of Chapter VII, Section (7) of the 1963 Constitution with respect to the states ought to be inserted in the New Constitution. For Federal Police to keep enforcing state criminal laws, then the Constitution should have a Supremacy Clause that expressly gives the National Assembly the constitutional powers to assign broad state criminal laws enforcement powers to the Federal Government.

Absent a Supremacy Clause, then each State of the federation has to grant such permission to the Federal Government by amending state laws under the Dual Sovereignty Doctrine. Where crimes or offenses under state laws are also considered to be punishable under federal jurisdiction. The adoption of Dual Sovereignty Doctrine by the 36 states of the federation will give Federal Police the constitutional and legal rights to continue its enforcement duties as is, without the need for the creation of state or local police. To eliminate any Double Jeopardy (being tried for the same offense twice at two separate jurisdictions) risk for the defendant, then Dual Sovereignty Doctrine should expressly limit the federal jurisdiction envelope to arrests only and prosecutorial discretion shall not apply. For instance, kidnapping is a state crime yet federal law enforcement agencies are deployed to enforce that breach of the law. This is an abuse of constitutional process.

Another area of the Constitution to reform is the Quota System at the Federal Departments and Agencies levels. Allocation should be on Geopolitical Zones basis not on State basis. The Quota System itself isn’t really the problem but its allocation. Allocate the same Quota to all the 6 zones and let the zones share among themselves on their own terms. Not the state by state allocation that has created undue advantage or disadvantage to sections of the country inducing imbalance in the system. Recalibrating Quota System/Federal Character on the basis of Geopolitical Zones will recapture the vision of the founding fathers. This idea would require a constitutional backbone for policy permanence.

The President may administratively distribute appointments based on the spirit of this idea in the interim, while the letters are worked into the Constitution by the National Assembly. There is also a need to codify the Six Geopolitical Zones into the Constitution. The classification of the country into six geopolitical zones is arguably the most consequential idea adopted from the 1995 Confab. This unwritten yet widely accepted concept ought to be codified into the constitution in order to assign legal heft to the classification.

Likewise, to improve electoral efficiency and integrity, staggered elections via political tenure review may be required. A 5-year single term for the office of the president and governor and 4-year triple terms for the National and State Assemblies could be explored. President and Governors are to serve for 5 years non renewable term to commence after the incumbent either completes two 4-year terms or loses second term bid. The next holder of the office then triggers 5-year single term and the cycle continues from there.

The highlighted issues are few totemic examples of many administrative, political, legal and constitutional matters in the 1999 Constitution that must be resolved to uncoil the immense potentials of the country. The 21st century world isn’t stopping for the country to catch up, hence, the need to choose how to move forward as a nation at 62, because the status quo can only do so much. The next question then is, do the people want to see a step change (incremental/constitutional amendment) or a sea change (sweeping/constitutional overhaul)? The collective national choice will determine the national pace and the path to get there. “The best way to predict your future is to create it.” – Abraham Lincoln. The nation must fulfill destiny. For that to happen, a new constitution that meets present realities and addresses the glaring imbalances in the current system is of existential necessity. The time has come for the nation to look back in order to look forward. Find the direct and root causes of the nation’s degradation, and be deliberate, dutiful and decisive at finding the right solutions. The higher the stakes the greater the caution.

In conclusion, we do not believe that the Bank of Justice is bankrupt, and the government cannot continue to default on its own Promissory Note of Equity and Justice, and it’s time to collect. Popular Sovereignty rooted in the idea that all powers of the government derive from the power of the people must be the lodestar of a nation reborn. Martin Luther King Jr. at the height of the Civil Rights Movement, said, “On some positions, Cowardice asks the question, Is it safe? Expediency asks the question, Is it politic? Vanity comes along and asks the question, Is it popular? But Conscience asks the question, Is it right? The ultimate measure of a person is not where they stand in moments of convenience, but where they stand in moments of challenge, moments of great crisis and controversy.” As we approach the 2023 election, let the debate be about reshaping the foundation of the country more than any personnel change. The pacing challenge to the country is both structural and foundational and this is the decisive decade to take action. Let’s make this decade the Nigerian decade.

Kenny Oladipo, @kindodey,
Houston,TX.
A Reliability Engineer and Consultant in the Energy and Manufacturing Sectors with academic training in Mechanical Engineering and Law.