If We Don’t Act Now Nigeria’s 2023 Census Will Have More Disastrous Outcome Than The General Elections -By Chima Christian

My name is Chima Christian, a public policy analyst. I am writing to propose that you consider using your platform to call for the postponement of the national census exercise scheduled to hold between March 29 and April 2, 2023. My principal argument is that the National Population Commission (NPC), as presently constituted, and the systems and processes it will deploy for the exercise is highly likely to produce an unacceptable data.

Given the circumstances, the ideal thing to do is for the exercise to be postponed by at least 9 months. My argument is built on four pillars;

1) CONDUCTING A MAJOR NATIONAL EXERCISE WITH UNAUDITED SYSTEMS AND PROCESSES: There has never been a census exercise in Nigeria that did not receive widespread rejection, at least from some sections of the country. The major controversy is about deliberate manipulation of census figures at the state levels. (See TC Africa Report of March 8, 2022: https://theconversation.com/nigerias-2022-census-is-overdue-but-preparation-is-in-doubt-177781 ).

NPC, on its official website claims that this particular exercise will be different. According to it, “the 2023 Census will be Nigeria’s first Digital Census and will change how the Census is being conducted in Nigeria.” This claim is repeated in their other public relations outings.

However, the systems NPC will be relying on to conduct the exercise have not been audited or subjected to intergrity tests. Not just the systems, but the processes. For instance, the systems, the servers, the PDAs, passwords, etc. will have to be operated by individuals who have varying degrees of influence over the system. Therefore there ought to be a test to ascertain the vulnerability of these systems/processes to the autonomous decisions of the individuals operating them. Where it is determined that the systems can be corrupted or technically manipulated by the individuals operating them, then the systems cannot be relied upon to produce accurate demographic data. A case in point is the recent failure occasioned by human interactions with INEC’s systems and processes.

2) MOOD OF THE COUNTRY AND POSSIBLE ATTACKS ON NPC STAFF: Nigeria is currently tensed. The fuel scarcity and Naira scarcity leading up to the general elections; the anger that INEC did not live up to the expectations; and then the judicial turps-turvy of the election petition; has made it a highly risky venture for the NPC to soldier on with its plans to conduct a national census at this time. It is easy for anyone who has been monitoring comments of everyday Nigerians, both online and offline, to understand that many Nigerians are angry. It is rational to expect that some of them may take out this anger on any available symbol of state authority.

Imagine a situation where a parent is unable to feed his family because of the Naira scarcity and present economic conditions. Add that to his anger and disappointment that INEC couldn’t hold a nationally acceptable election,and then in the middle of that someone knocks on his door to ask him about how many children he has and other accompanying questions. NPC will be putting their enumerators in harms’ way if they don’t wait for the tensions to come down a bit before nationwide deployment of their officials.

3) ORGANISATIONAL CAPACITY OF THE NPC: Like most institutions in Nigeria, NPC is hobbled by the lack of skilled man-power. The recruitment, reward, command and control structure within these institutions make it difficult to hire and retain talents. Even when talented people show up on the scene, they usually end up leaving or succumbing to the dominant culture of the organisation.

Additionally, the manner of appointment of the Chief Executive and the national commissioners of the NPC has made it difficult for Nigeria to command their allegiance. Such allegiances are mainly to the individuals who facilitated their appointments.

Moreso, the NPC, while it continued to run skeletal operations during the intervening years, has not undertaken a major national assignment since 2006. If we are to consider the natural law of attrition, then it is only fair to expect that the cumulative productive capacity within the NPC has atrophied due to lack of full deployment in nearly two decades.

To bridge this gap, trainings and retrainings are routinely embarked upon by such organisations. However, poor funding and corruption within the system have largely rolled back the expected benefits of such trainings. What Nigeria is about to do now is tantamount to setting out on a long distance journey with a car that has not been in use for nearly two decades. Without a thorough confirmation that the car has been properly serviced, it should not be hard to guess how the journey will end.

Additionally, NPC is retaining the services of over 700,000 contract staff for this exercise. The processes that led to the recruitment of these people were less than transparent. A sat the time of writing this letter, their training modules have not been routinely followed. With what we know today, it is highly likely that the NPC will be deploying people who are not properly trained to carry out this exercise. The data to be harvested by these individuals will be tainted to the degree of the inadequacy of their trainings.

4) POLITICAL PRESSURE: Since population distribution is a major consideration in sharing of Nigeria’s resources, and several other important considerations, there is the motivation by key actors to tilt the population numbers in their favour. Additionally, Nigeria’s institutions are built around strongmen.

For instance, one of the dominant narratives before going into the 2023 general elections, was President Muhammadu Buhari’s legacy. Buhari’s cold feet towards the conduct of census since his government came into power is well-documented. Conducting a census this close to the end of his term, and after a disappointing general election, should remain suspect.

Moreover, having seen the Buhari government in nearly 8 years of its incumbency; the 97/5 percenters, lopsided appointments, inability to manage Nigeria’s diversity, promotion of sectional interests, etcetera; the cardinal question should be – do Nigerians have enough confidence that a census overseen by President Muhammadu Buhari’s government will have a credible outcome? One in which they the true population of Nigeria, with its rightful and accurate demographic distribution is determined? If the answer to this question is in the negative, why then go ahead with the process? Why not wait for a new government to be formed, allow the government to settle in, and the new government carries out such an important assignment?

There has always been this argument that people congregate more around the coastline than they do in arid regions. Nigeria’s claimed population distribution seem to be the only disagreement to this. A credible census will either prove or dispel some of the tightly held notions about Nigeria’s demographic distribution. Political actors are more than like going to throw around influence to corrupt the processes.

With these four factors and more coming together to pre-determine the outcome of the census even before the first person is counted, it is not difficult to foresee that the census, if we go ahead to conducting it as scheduled, will have a contested outcome and will likely end up being a waste of the N177 billion invested in the process.

I share this with you hoping that you will find these arguments sound, and then use your platform(s) to save Nigerians from another’s agony. We do this by calling for the census to be postponed, and insisting on subjecting the systems and processes to a multi-stakeholder audit and integrity test.

Africa’s morning will come.

Chima Christian