Israel-Hamas War: Remember Who Started It -By Dele Sobowale

“Wisdom in people consists in the anticipation of consequences” – Norman Cousins, 1915-1990.

Approximately five years

ago, Lagos Island was in the vice grip of gang wars brought about by disputes over control of various sectors of our Island by unemployed and often violent youths. Several attempts were made by elders to bring about peace without success. Jaw-Jaw inevitably turned to War-War with the first blow delivered by one individual. At one of the meetings, a young and self-assured brawler, impatient with the slow pace of reaching agreements, turned on a speaker from the other side.

Asking the other to “shut up”, brawler did not wait for a reaction before pushing the speaker violently and kicking his victim – who fell down awkwardly. It was the greatest and last mistake brawler made in his life. Speaker was a retired Army officer, combatant and well-trained in martial arts, up to Black Belt. Within seconds, the attacker was flat on his face and his back bone was being broken with well-practised stumps — before people waded in to stop what would have been murder in retaliation for a push and kick.

One of our oldest residents, now late, arrived just as the prostrate brawler was being rescued by others and immediately launched a verbal attack on the officer for his wickedness against a “defenceless” person. Baba, as we called him, still insisted that the response was excessive even if the first blow was struck by the vanquished brawler. Baba was a lone voice at that meeting which broke up immediately. The brawler himself delivered the final verdict from his bed a few weeks before he passed on: “I would not have done what I did if somebody had told me that the man is a soldier”. In other words, he did not anticipate the consequences of what he was going to do. To him, he deserved the punishment.

GAZA, OCTOBER 6, 2023 AND AFTER

“Some act first and think later; and they think more of excuses than consequences. Some think neither before nor after. The whole of life should be spent thinking about the right course to follow” – Professor John Kenneth Galbraith, 1908-2006, Nobel Prize Winning Economist.

I participated in a seminar by Galbraith, then-America’s most influential Economist and Public Speaker, in late 1967. Before then, I had read every book he published. In 1967, the US-Vietnam War was most intense and the American society was violently divided. College campuses were in turmoil, students drafted were refusing to serve their country in a manner unprecedented in US history. Economic repercussions of the war were among the most hotly debated issues at the time. I was interested because Nigeria’s Civil War, 1967-1970, had just broken out.

Finding out the economic impacts of war in any country was not a luxury; but a matter of necessity. All my loved ones, especially my mum, were in Nigeria; I wanted to have an idea of what they might be going through. Galbraith, who was an Economic Adviser to American Presidents, during World War II, painted such horrors of wars, complete with slide shows to reveal to us what Hiroshima and Nagasaki – two Japanese cities, on which nuclear bombs were dropped – looked like the day before and after they were devastated by bombs.

It was clear to me on that day that anybody making plans to start a war should go into historical archives and conduct research into how places looked before and after the last war was fought there. The lesson was clear. The greatest two days destruction in human history occurred because on December 7, 1941, Japan launched a surprise attack on US naval fleet stationed at Pearl Harbor; and declared war on America.

The final consequences of that decision, by the Japanese military command, was not felt until August 6 and 9, 1945 on Hiroshima and Nagasaki respectfully – killing and maiming over two million Japanese, men, women, children and hospital staff indiscriminately. Those pictures and those slides will remain indelible in my mind even if I live for a thousand years. It was not surprising to me – when in 1970 Nigerian children suffering with kwashiorkor appeared in American newspapers; side by side with Vietnam’s kids burning from American napalm attack.

I learnt afresh that war is hell and it is pointless heaping blames on soldiers; who are engaged to kill for their countries and not to die for her. I have also gone to great lengths to bring to our attention that real war starts when one party strikes the first blow. I was only one of few bloody civilians at Galbraith’s seminar. Most of the participants were young officers or those thinking of embarking on a military career or diplomacy. Galbraith emphasised the reason why the aggressor must calculate all the possible outcomes of unleashing the first volley of violence – including the “unthinkable”.

That brings me to October 6, 2023 – the day before the Hamas attack on Israel. There should be very little difficulty in obtaining an aerial photograph of the entire Gaza. On that day, there would have been no part of Gaza in ruins; no hospitals, schools and shopping malls were flattened, there were water and power supplies everywhere; drugs were easily available. Granted, all the alleged injustices were present; but no mass annihilation took place.

October 7, 2023, just one day, changed everything. Hamas military authorities successfully invaded in a pre-dawn raid, shattering Israel’s presumed iron dome impregnable security. Hundreds of Israeli residents, women and children – not just citizens – were killed, kidnapped and held hostage. That was the first blow; and the interrogation starts from there.

“In whatever situation you find yourself, determine first, what is your objective” – Field Marshal Foch, 1851-1929.

It was very clear that a great deal of meticulous planning must have gone into the adventure for it to achieve its spectacular success. Israeli and American security units, MOSSAD and CIA, as well as Western allies, were all caught “pants down” literally. Hubris also has its consequences. But, we come to that later. The impossible occurred where least expected. However, till today, no Hamas leader has bothered to explain to the whole world what their objectives were when embarking on this conflict which started costing about 1, 400 lives in Israel and 200-plus taken as hostages – virtually all women, children, old people and the most vulnerable in any society. They kept strictly away from soldiers and armed security operatives.

Even without being told, we can safely discard one goal. They were not going to confront the Israeli army; because that honourable confrontation would have amounted to mass suicide for the Hamas attackers. That dispensed with, we can then ask what their intentions were in staging the raid and gathering as many hostages as they could safely run away with. Did they expect to use the hostages to force Israel to the negotiation table? Were they expecting Israelis to start migrating in fear of further attacks by Hamas? Did it ever cross their minds that Israel will not retaliate as long as they hold the hostages?

The possible objectives are too numerous for me to contemplate – not being Hamas or a military strategist. However, it is now beyond reasonable doubt that the devastation of Gaza, in an Israeli retaliatory series of strikes, which has resulted in over 16,000 lives, was perhaps the last thing they expected. Unless, killing their own people by the thousands and destroying homes, schools, hospitals and life-supporting infrastructures was part of their plans, then Hamas leaders have committed a great blunder which will eventually lead to more losses of lives and properties.

All the Palestinian, as well as other lives lost and properties devastated must be charged. They struck the first blow on October 7, for whatever reasons known to them without fully taking account of the consequences. Their people and the whole world now have to deal with a monumental human catastrophe brought about by a handful of hatred-driven and misguided individuals, holding the fate of Palestinians in their hands. Carnage will certainly continue after the hostage swap; the war, unlike the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has spread to the whole world.

There is hardly a nation or group of people who have not taken sides. Surprisingly, the United States, hitherto regarded as safe for Jews, and other Western European nations, considered sympathetic to Israelis, now exhibit traces of anti-Semitism. Despite the truth we know, that Hamas started the ball rolling on October7, those crying about genocide in Gaza have deliberately refused to acknowledge that there was no devastation of Gaza before then.

Just as America has never apologised for over-reacting in 1945, nobody should hope to pressurise Israel to stop fighting until it is safe for Israel. But, however and whenever it ends, remember who started it this time….

To be continued