Navigating the Democratic Transition: Lessons from Rivers (Wike to Fubara) and Kogi (Yahaya to Ododo) -By John Egbeazien Oshodi

The intricate dynamics of political transitions in Nigerian states, exemplified by Rivers and Kogi, offer profound lessons for the future of governance. These transitions not only shape the trajectory of individual administrations but also serve as critical touchstones for the broader democratic landscape.

In Rivers State, the handover of power from Governor Nyesom Wike to Siminalayi Fubara serves as a stark illustration of the complexities arising when a powerful political godfather seeks to extend their influence by anointing a successor. The rationale behind such decisions often revolves around ensuring continuity, preserving the legacy of the previous administration, and safeguarding vested interests. However, beneath the surface, a fundamental tension emerges – the tension between loyalty and the broader public interest.

This tension becomes even more evident when we consider the ongoing turmoil in Rivers State. Governor Wike, functioning as a powerful political godfather, has reportedly passed on his appointments and influence to his chosen successor, Fubara. While this arrangement may have been intended to ensure a smooth transition, it has instead resulted in ongoing political crises and conflicts. These conflicts have escalated to the extent that they required the intervention of influential figures like Tinubu. Such situations exemplify the delicate dance between the rule of man and the rule of law in Nigerian politics.
In Kogi State, the transition of power from Yahaya Bello to Usman Ododo raises grave concerns, particularly in light of the appointment of Yahaya’s nephew Ali Bello as Chief of Staff and the reappointment of Dr. Folashade Ayoade, who previously served as the Secretary to the State Government (SSG) for eight years under Yahaya Bello. This situation underscores the potential pitfalls of a rule of man rather than a rule of law and highlights the importance of transparency, accountability, and the public interest in the governance of the state.

What makes this transition particularly concerning is the legal cloud hanging over these individuals. Both Ali Bello and Dr. Folashade Ayoade are currently facing serious criminal charges. This situation raises ethical and legal issues as it appears to prioritize loyalty-based appointments over the rule of law.

The transition from Yahaya Bello to Usman Ododo highlights the potential pitfalls of a rule of man rather than a rule of law. It underscores the dangers of concentrating power in the hands of a single individual, especially when individuals with legal cases are appointed to key positions. The practice of loyalty-based appointments, intended to facilitate a harmonious transition, can introduce a dual power structure within the government. While these appointments may align with the interests of the outgoing governor, they can hinder effective governance if they lead to conflicting allegiances and undermine the authority of the incoming administration.

The appointment of Ali Bello, who is a nephew of the former Kogi Governor Yahaya Bello, as the Chief of Staff by Governor Usman Ododo, and the retention of Ayoade, who served as the Secretary to the State Government (SSG) for the past eight years under the immediate past Governor Yahaya Bello, raises concerns. This transition of power from Yahaya Bello to Usman Ododo may result in a government filled with individuals facing legal cases. It is foreseeable that the new governor, with the support of his new supporters, will align himself with those who share his interests, especially since Ali Bello, the reappointed Ayoade as Chief of Staff, have legal issues, and even possibly Yahaya himself, likely to face legal problems. This natural progression of events may give rise to conflicts and tensions between Yahaya and Ododo as Ododo asserts his independence and the need for a distraction-free government, similar to the situation between Wike and Fubara.

The lessons drawn from the transitions in Rivers and Kogi serve as a stark reminder of the challenges inherent in political transitions. They emphasize the importance of upholding democratic values, prioritizing the public interest, and allowing each governor the autonomy to lead according to their unique vision. These experiences offer hope for a future where governance is characterized by stability, inclusivity, and adherence to democratic principles.

The delicate balance between loyalty and the public interest is a challenge that political leaders must navigate in Nigerian states. The practice of loyalty-based appointments can have far-reaching consequences, and leaders must prioritize the welfare and development of the state and its citizens above personal or party interests. Transparent and inclusive processes for selecting successors and key officials can help mitigate conflicts and ensure that the best interests of the state are served.

Additionally, the role of strong democratic institutions and adherence to the rule of law cannot be overstated. These principles are essential for ensuring due process, fairness, and accountability in governance.

Democracy thrives when leaders prioritize the public interest above personal or party interests. Effective governance requires transparency, accountability, and inclusivity. When outgoing governors prioritize loyalty over these democratic principles, it can result in power struggles and conflicts that erode public trust and disrupt the normal functioning of government.

Kogi State, undergoing its own transition from Yahaya to Ododo, offers an opportunity to apply the lessons learned from the Rivers experience. It is crucial for Ododo to recognize the value of democratic principles and the paramount importance of the public welfare. This includes adhering to transparency in decision-making, being accountable to the electorate, and prioritizing the interests of the state’s citizens.

Moreover, Ododo must grasp the essence of democracy, which allows each new governor the freedom to imprint their unique vision and values onto their role. Regardless of any support received from political godfathers, governors must be able to assert their individuality and set their agenda for the betterment of the state and its people.

The overarching lesson from the transitions in Rivers and Kogi is that the rule of law should always take precedence over the rule of man in a democratic society. Leaders must recognize that democracy is not about the dominance of a single personality but about the collective will and welfare of the citizens.

Furthermore, there is a palpable hope that Kogi can learn from these lessons and chart a different course. The hope is that Kogi will not require external mediation, such as the intervention of influential figures like Tinubu, to resolve internal political conflicts. While such mediation can offer temporary solutions, it is essential for Kogi to nurture a culture of democratic governance that prioritizes dialogue, transparency, and the public interest to prevent future crises.

The dynamics of political succession and appointments in various states, such as Rivers and Kogi, often give rise to intricate and at times contentious situations. When outgoing governors wield significant influence in selecting their successors and key officials, it can result in a delicate balance between loyalty and potential conflicts within the political arena.

These scenarios underscore the vital importance of transparent and inclusive political processes that prioritize the welfare of the state and its citizens over individual interests. Striking the right balance between continuity and inclusivity is crucial for ensuring stability and effective governance.

Ultimately, the success of such political transitions hinges on the ability of leaders to adeptly manage these dynamics, foster consensus, and remain focused on the best interests of their states and constituents. This highlights the significance of robust democratic institutions and the adherence to the rule of law in addressing any disputes or conflicts that may arise during the process.

In many Nigerian states, political succession is closely intertwined with patronage networks, where outgoing governors have substantial sway in the selection of their successors and key government officials. This practice stems from the desire for a smooth transition that aligns with the vision and priorities of the outgoing governor. As long as Nigeria continues to practice democracy, even though imperfectly at times, it is imperative that the new governor is allowed to bring their own likeness, style, dignity, and humanity to their role. Regardless of any support received from a political godfather, the new governor should be free to express their own unique vision and values while serving the state and its people.

Public opinion also plays a significant role in shaping the outcomes of political transitions and appointments. Citizens expect transparency, fairness, and accountability in the selection of leaders and officials. Public pressure and civil society engagement can influence political decisions and hold leaders accountable for their actions. Whether the outgoing governor passes on appointments or allows the new governor to make their own appointments, it reflects the delicate balance between political loyalty, continuity, and public interest. Effective governance requires strong leadership, adherence to democratic principles, and a commitment to serving the best interests of the state and its people. Managing conflicts and ensuring inclusivity are critical steps in navigating these complex political landscapes. The rule of law should always take precedence over the rule of man in a democratic society, and the new governor should have the freedom to bring their own character and values into their role, regardless of their political origins.

In conclusion, the lessons learned from the transitions in Rivers and Kogi are a testament to the complexity of political appointments during transitions. Nigerian states can navigate these challenges successfully by upholding democratic values, prioritizing the public interest, and allowing each new governor the autonomy to lead according to their unique vision. These experiences serve as guideposts for the broader democratic landscape of Nigeria, offering hope for a future where governance is characterized by stability, inclusivity, and adherence to the principles of democracy. These profound lessons underscore the critical importance of transparency, accountability, and adherence to the rule of law in ensuring effective governance and safeguarding the welfare of the state’s citizens.

Professor John Egbeazien Oshodi, born in Uromi, Edo State, Nigeria, is an American-based police and prison scientist, forensic psychologist, and legal psychologist. He’s a government advisor on forensic-clinical psychological services in the USA and the founder of the Dr. John Egbeazien Oshodi Foundation for Psychological Health. With a significant role in introducing forensic psychology to Nigeria through N.U.C. and Nasarawa State University, he’s also a former Secretary-General of the Nigeria Psychological Association. He’s taught at esteemed institutions like Florida Memorial University, Florida International University, Nova Southeastern University, and more, and is currently an online faculty member at Weldios University, Nexus International University, and Walden University. John.Oshodi@mail.waldenu.edu