Nigeria: A Vanishing Economy -By Edebi Onatufe

“Last year, the World Bank ranked Nigeria among the top 10 reforming economies in the world. This was clearly in recognition of the thorough and rigorous growth and development-oriented economic policies of the Buhari Administration.” – Garba Shehu, Senior Special Assistant to the President (Media and Publicity)

This shouldn’t in anyway be considered a rejoinder to the press release of Garba Shehu titled “Count Your Blessings Under Buhari” by many media outlets quite recently, but a cross-examination of the ideals expressed therein. It is with great pleasure that Nigerians welcomed the news that our economy was appraised and recognized the collective efforts of every Nigerian as we advanced 24 steps in the global ‘Ease of Doing Business’ rankings of the World Bank. An entrepreneurial culture is what drives progress and purpose. It is without a doubt that capitalism and entrepreneurship has been the greatest creator of wealth and opportunity in all of history. So indeed this is a huge leap in a step forward, we are grateful to the government for building the capacity for a thriving environment to do business, yet let’s keep in mind that the ease of doing business index is meant to measure regulations directly affecting businesses and does not directly measure more general conditions such as a nation’s proximity to large markets, quality of infrastructure, inflation, or crime. However it’s a prerequisite when harnessed properly. The question is will we?

A previous government once broke the media when it announced that Nigeria had become the ‘largest economy in Africa’ a terminology that points at the great potentials of Nigeria. Trumpets were blown, and instinctively Nigerians expected better days ahead. An erroneous belief in technical terms that doesn’t translate to a drop in inflation, a decline in unemployment, a better security system or even a better healthcare system and flourishing education system.

Since 2014, Nigeria has been topping the list of African countries with the largest economy in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Nigeria had overtaken South Africa which had for many decades had an iron firm at the helm. The GDP of Nigeria as at the last official ranking in 2016 stands at $406B. This is majorly attributed to the vast reserves of oil and gas. Unfortunately this has not translated into better living conditions as a result of exploding population growth and a thriving mismanagement of money and resources by leaders and persons in authority as encapsulated in statistical data that Nigeria slips to number 15 with a Nominal GDP Per Capita of $2,930, this is putting aside that there is no accurate data on Nigeria’s population.

A large economy is a wonderful blessing as it enshrines the possibilities of a country, but it’s not enough, as it fails to capture the heartache and grief and anger that the average Nigerian has to deal with on a daily basis. Nigeria is the one country in Africa with a robust economy in which we do not have sufficient common sense on how to properly dissipate our blessing even in the face of obscene poverty.

Let me identify four problems which represent contemporary policy preoccupation in this region of Africa. It is not suggested these give a holistic view of the inherent issues and must be considered incomplete: Inflation, unemployment, insecurity, slow rate of growth of total output and productivity. The first three are self-explanatory and easily comprehended as we are all victims of these. For the sake of clarity I would just briefly elaborate on the fourth. Environmental and psychological consequences of the growth of output is terrifyingly low. We deal more with importation such that local production is low and consequently output (exportation) is not measuring up. I once heard Aliko Dangote say “when you import goods, you export jobs”. This takes us back to the second problem, unemployment.

According to a study carried out by the Varkey Foundation in 2017, Nigeria youths ranked the highest on the happiness index in the world, second only to Indonesia, Nigerians still believe their country is the best place to live in and Government has a big role to play in increasing their sense of belonging. Although, a high percentage of the respondents remain fearful of their future due to extremism, global terrorism and possible conflict and war. Likewise in 2003 a study as reported by the British Broadcasting Cooperation (BBC) of more than 65 countries suggested that the happiest people in the world live in Nigeria – and the least happy, in Romania. We have somehow managed to stay happy and positive in spite of unfavorable odds. And for this, a lot of failures and inadequacies in our economy is put aside jovially.

Let us be more practical in presenting somewhat sophisticated ideas in relatively simple terms, rather than technical terms and big words that don’t express our true dilemma, our economy is vanishing in terms of human development. Although nothing is easier than making fun of the shortcomings of our contemporary economy, the intention of every Nigerian is to put forward a positive alternative.

The true strength of a nation depends on the success of their people, their knowledge, their innovation, their imagination, their drive, their opportunity and that in turn depends on individual rights and good governance embodied in human development and personal security. The failure to provide this foundation would keep us on the same path we have been for the last couple of years.

The theme is if we wish to understand the operation of a modern advanced economy, we must escape from the habitual thought of expression associated with seemingly good numbers and self-judgement. Accept criticism, not everyone critic is an opposition. Let’s not forget how some leaders celebrate mediocre projects all in a bid to display and project political involvement in development. Short term solutions to long term problems. As a people we have to adapt the long term perspective of classical political economy growth, concerning in particular such issues surrounding the low middle income class.

We have failed as a country and as a government if a policeman and breadwinner of his family is shot in active service protecting lives and he receives no proper healthcare nor his family taken care of after his demise. We have failed if our children, our brothers and sisters in the North can’t go to school and feel safe. We have failed if suddenly one day medical students of a university wake up one morning to be told their school fees has been hijacked from N37,000 to N185,000 without hope of restitution, yet we talk about investing in education when we forget that the poor should mainly be the target in such prospects. We have failed if a senior citizen who judiciously gave his life in service of our great nation for years is rewarded by a decadence in the pension system. We have failed if a doctor dies while saving lives due to negligence and under funding of the healthcare system. As a country we owe it to every citizen to protect lives as we serve our nation and propel it to greatness. We must not lose the ideals and foundation upon which our founding fathers built this nation. Arise, O compatriots, Nigeria’s call obey to serve our fatherland with love and strength and faith…

Faith in it’s people.

The most important choice you can make is to maximize your greatest resource, the Nigerian people. Nigeria will thrive when every Nigerian is able to thrive. – Bill Gates.

Edebi Onatufe (A public affairs commentator writing from Ibadan)