#OBIdient: Revolution Or Evolution? -By J.A. Ezihe

Something unusual is astir in the Nigerian political atmosphere. Turn and twist, there is no denying it! It certainly reminds me of 1993 which was the last time I was excited about the outcome of a Nigerian election. It has been dubbed a revolution. Others like Prof Pat Utomi perhaps more cautiously have described it as a movement.

Is this movement the beginning of … a revolution … or an evolution? Does it really matter how it is described?  Or is this just a question of semantics?

For the records up until May 2022, I had gone into what over the years had become my classic peri-Nigerian election stance. An ostrich burying its head in the sand. Do not proceed to regale me with proverbs, sayings and arguments about ‘silence meaning acquiescence’ and ‘political apathy being as dangerous as tyranny’. I tabled all of these and more in various conversations with myself. The conclusion I reached was that I was not going to get my emotions entangled in a choice between plantain and boli or beans and akara (to quote Charly Boy).

So what has induced this ‘ostrich’ to unbury her head? For the first time in a long time … I see a factual and actual choice.

In history and political science a revolution is a forcible overthrow of a government or social order, in favour of a new system. Evolution on the other hand is the gradual process of change and development.  

Is there merit in one over the other? What lessons can we learn from history?

The French revolution started off as an uprising against an unjust order but rapidly degenerated into a Kangaroo Republic. Tyranny of the monarchy was replaced by tyranny of ‘revolutionaries’. It took over a decade for France to restore a semblance of coherence in its political space. 

The Russian revolution of 1917 ushered in Communism. It is estimated that in 100 years of communism over 20 million people were killed directly by the government and another 80 million died indirectly as a result of its policies.

More recently instigators of The Arab Spring envisaged regime change would usher in the end of corruption, economic stagnation, social injustice, human rights violation etc. As The Spring changed to Winter young, disappointed Egyptians were seen asking ‘is this what we fought and nearly died for?’

History shows that with every revolution there is a forcible, destructive energy that is released which very often develops a life of its own. It certainly takes down. It does not necessarily build up. And therein lies the problem. 

Evolution is what the Universe was doing long before us humans came along. Yes, it is more gradual, arguably less forceful but invariably successful. It is the reason Our Species survived.

How we choose to name this movement and how this name then in reciprocity inspires and energizes us will be key factors in determining the outcome.  

The protagonist at the heart of this movement has described himself as a man on a mission to rescue Nigeria. For the avoidance of doubt the soul of Nigeria is travelling with alarming speed towards the abyss and is in dire need of rescuing. Before it reaches the point of no return.

The task of rescuing Nigeria is not a job for one man no matter how good and great his intentions. It requires a critical mass of like-minded people, committed with similar intensity and passion to the cause. So this article is not about Mr. Peter Obi. I think it is reasonably clear what he stands for and how. This article is a FOLLOWERSHIP CONVERSATION.

I ask all who describe themselves as OBIdients. Are we strong enough to carry Peter Obi & Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed all the way to Aso Rock to commence mission Rescue Nigeria?

Are our shoulders big and broad enough for the job at hand? Do we even have a clear perception of the task ahead and what it will demand of us?

Let us not deceive ourselves. The story of failure and destruction of the promise of Nigeria was never just a failure of leadership. It was also a failure of followership. We are once more presented with another opportunity.

I ask ALL OBIdients – are we prepared this time as followers to … NOT FAIL?

Before you start waving your PVC as evidence of your great commitment … I urge you to read the question(s) again.

Permit me to rephrase. The task at hand is that of birthing a new great nation. Akin to a pregnancy. A human couple desirous of having a child will have to wait an average of 40 weeks. Even if the woman gets pregnant immediately. For bigger mammals like elephants pregnancy lasts 22 months i.e. more than twice as long.  Contrast this with the gestation of a rabbit which is about 30 days. The birth of a country described at inception as the giant of Africa and which has now decayed to a shadow of its promise will not be an overnight endeavour.

After pregnancy comes labour. Many women attest to labour being the most painful experience they have ever known.  The child is the reward. If real change is on the horizon, how prepared are we for the intensity and duration of the labour pains?

In the days ahead all who describe themselves as OBIdients will fall into one of 3 groups best described by this famous quote:

1. Small minds discuss people
2. Average minds discuss places (events)
3. Great minds discuss principles (ideas)

It is useful to know which group people in your circle of acquaintance belong to (I am already compiling my list). What is even more important is to know which group YOU belong to. 

Group 1: Fairweather OBIdients. Their allegiance is governed by tribal sentiments. Whether it be religious tribalism, ancestral tribalism, professional tribalism etc. It just so happens that on this occasion the person at the centre of this movement aligns with their tribal prejudices.

The Fairweather OBIdients do not and have never understood that this race is NOT a sprint. This is a marathon with all the obstacles of a steeplechase thrown in. When the pains of nation building start to create personal inconvenience they will behave like those Israelites of old who in the wilderness were heard ranting against Moses and Aaron.  Why did you take us out of Egypt? At least in Egypt we had food. If the movement is populated to a large extent by Group 1, they are capable of scuttling any march to any promised land. 

Group 3: True OBIdients. I hold no statistics but going on the strength of similar patterns in historical events, this is ‘doomed’ to be the minority group. If >10% of OBIdients belong in this group then I would already declare it a miracle. True OBIdients understand that this needs to be an evolution not a revolution. Borrowing a leaf from Mahatma Gandhi and Dr Martin Luther King OBIdients must now become the change we want to see in Nigeria.

In a returning-to-the-path-of-sanity Nigeria:

• Everyone will have to take their place in the queue regardless of position. I have been at a cash machine where someone felt entitled to shunt to the top of the queue because he was in a Man O’ War uniform. When I reminded him that we were now in a civilian dispensation, it was clear from his reaction that he could not understand why this woman was being so ‘troublesome’.
• It will no longer be possible to bribe teachers so that your child gets a more favourable WAEC result. In some schools this practice has been elevated to institutionalised cheating. Parents pay the levy. Principal, Teachers and students do the rest.
• If you are caught jumping traffic lights you will be penalised. Regardless of who you are. There will be no option to bribe.
• If you come late to church you sit at the back regardless of earthly position. The Queen of England is one of the oldest and most powerful monarchs on earth and yet she does not come late to mass in order to show her importance.
• Public and political office holders will actually be expected to show up to events on time. Can you imagine this paradigm shift?  There is a lot of discomfort lying in wait – for ALL of us!

If I may digress, recently Anambra state set a record of some sorts. For the first time that I can recall in Nigeria, a high public office holder was ‘reprimanded’ for coming late. If you divest that incident from the accompanying Nollywood antics (and there was plenty) the clear audible message was ‘You are late! You are late!’

The spouse of the first citizen of a state comes late to what arguably is the number one event in the life of any state government. Where in the USA does a First Lady come late to a swearing-in-ceremony? And the USA has 50 states!  This is conduct which should fill any decent person with shame. As if arriving late is not enough of a slap in the face to the public, the latecomer proceeds to instigate an altercation with another guest who had the common decency and respect for the occasion to arrive on time. 

Under Project Rescue Nigeria shame, decency and decorum will return to public life.

Group 2: Average OBIdients. Once again I admit to holding no statistics but by conventional wisdom, I expect this to be the largest zone. This is the grey area. With a sustained quest for discipline and enlightenment every Average OBIdient can move from Group 2 to 3. Sadly movement can also happen in the reverse direction. From Group 2 to 1.  This group is critical because they have the numbers. If there is one message I would wish this group embraces it is the principle that Project Rescue Nigeria is a journey NOT a destination.

What are the implications of this?

• Good soldiers going into battle, hope for the best but also prepare for the worst.
•  The worst that can happen in the short term is that the Labour party does not win the Presidential election in 2023. If that happens it is a hiccup but not the end of the journey.
• If Project Rescue Nigeria has started in our hearts and souls, there must be no going back. Regardless of what happens in February 2023.
• Let us take a lesson from Nelson Mandela who said – I never loose. I either win or I learn.
• All OBIdients must prepare by embracing this notion. WE WILL NOT LOOSE. We either win or … We learn lessons that will translate to winning in 2027.
• You must confront and find it possible to coexist with either possibility. If you fail to prepare, you prepare to fail.

Remember Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. Some Americans were so stunned they could not get out of bed the next day. Then followed the ‘Not my President’ rallies. Well that is not how the USA Presidential system works. As long as a President is duly elected he will serve his tenure. The Democrats then had four years to work on a plan that would change the narrative. This translated to Joe Biden’s victory. 

So EVERY OBIdient must have a clear plan of what they intend to be doing on Sunday 26-February-2023, Monday 27-February-2023 and the days that immediately follow.

And it must not and should not include burying your head in the sand. Take this as advice from a well-practiced ostrich. 

We are either celebrating or … we are back at the drawing board.

I have prepared myself for either.

I invite you to do the same.