Off-season election: A tight race along ethnic divides in Kogi State

Today’s governorship election in Kogi is expected to be a keenly contested one, and the outcome could have far-reaching implications for the state and the country at large. For the first time in the political history of the state, political analysts and pundits could not ascertain who may likely win the poll.

However, what is obvious is that the election has taken an ethnic colouration with each of the leading candidates digging deep in his senatorial zone.

Four of the candidates, namely Ahmed Ododo of the All Progressives Congress, APC; Leke Abejide of the African Democratic Congress, ADC; Muritala Ajaka of the Social democratic Party, SDP; and Dino Melaye of the PDP, have emerged as leading candidate in a crowd of 18 standard bearers.

Ododo is the only candidate from Kogi Central senatorial district. While Dino and Leke are from the Western flank, Ajaka is from the Eastern district.

Ododo’s strength, weaknesses

Ododo of the ruling APC enjoys the support of the incumbent Governor Yahaya Bello. He also seems to control majority of voters in the Ebira ethnic group dominated Kogi Central senatorial district. The APC as a party has structures across the state, controls all the 21 council areas, 6 of the 9 House of Representatives slots and 2 of 3 Senate seats.

Ododo seems not to enjoy overwhelming support in the two other senatorial districts. The West felt that the Governor Bello reneged on the 2019 agreement he had with them to hand over to someone from their zone and settled for his Egbira kinsman. The Eastern flank too felt that the administration of Governor Bello of Egbira extraction did not favour them.

Also, there is a silent clannish issue among the Ebira people which may lead to apathy coupled with the bad blood from State Teachers and Local government workers who were affected by a screening committee headed by Ododo while he was the Auditor General of the state.

Besides, Ododo’s Kogi Central has the least number of registered voters in the state.

Ajaka’s strength, weaknesses

Muritala Ajaka of the SDP is banking on the fact that his zone has the highest number ofregistered voters. He has also been able to whip up sentiment from the constant attacks he allegedly received from the state governor to his favour. His Deputy, Sam Abeneme has also been able to receive the backing of his Federal Constituency, Lokoja/Kogi. Muri seems comfortable in 9 LGAs of Kogi East.

However, Muri is flying the SDP flag that has little or no structure in the state. The party has no elected official in Kogi. Their strength seems to be in the Eastern flank and 2 out of the 7 council areas in Western senatorial district, and none in the central area. Analysts opined that even if Ajaka wins massively in the Igala-dominated Eastern area, he may not be able to have 25 percent in two-third of the 21 LGAs of the state; which may force the election to re-run.

He commands the support of his Yagba Federal Constituency which has three LGAs. By his good deed, he was able to get another Reps member in neighbouring Kabba/Bunu/Ijumu Federal Constituency – giving him an edge in 5 of the 7 council area of the zone.

Leke seems to be the only candidate without ‘political blemish.’ He has been able to build alliances across party divides, making his candidature a movement and not one hinged on his party. Every of the two other senatorial districts has theoretically ‘picked’ him as the alternative candidate for their zone, in case their kinsmen could not make it. However, Leke’s platform, ADC, has only one House of Assembly member out of 21, and 2 out of 9 House of Representatives seats. Moreover, the party is only known in the Western senatorial axis.

Will Dino Melaye, PDP get it?

Melaye is running on the strength of a strong political party. He’s also pushing his image as a credible voice for the people.

However, the PDP is already a divided house in the state. The party has no executive, and is presently running a care-taker committee. Dino’s emergence rather than unite the party, seems to have further destroyed it as many of the bigwigs have decamped to the APC. Analysts believe that it may even be difficult for him to win his local government of Ijumu.

Aside the Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke, no other PDP governor openly associated with his campaign.

Issues that will shape Kogi election
Following the campaigns a host of issues would shape the outcome of the election.

Ethnic and sectional politics

The election is expected to be a direct confrontation between the three major ethnic nationalities in the state – Igala, Ebira, and Okun. Since the creation of the state in 1991, there has always been ethnic contests between two major tribes while the third tribe and minorities become beautiful brides. The Igala in the East has governed for 16 years, the Ebira of central will complete their 8 years in January while the West has never gotten a taste.

No fewer than 1,932,654 voters are expected to vote. Based on voting strengths, none of these three tribes can single-handedly make one of their own governor, so the ethnic minorities like Bassa Nge, Bassa Kwomu, Nupe, Ogori-Magongo, and non-indigenes may likely decide who wins today’s election.

Political violence

Kogi’s growing notoriety for political violence is another key issue that may shape the poll. However, there seems to be an assurance from the Federal Government that the election will be free from violence unlike the 2019 governorship election that was marred with violence, voter-intimidation, and harassment.

Money politics

The influence of money in the election is another issue that could shape the outcome of the election. Vote-buying and other forms of electoral malpractices are common in Nigerian elections, and Kogi is not an exception.

Youth participation

The youths are expected to play a significant role in the election. However, all of the four projected leading candidates are still in their 40’s. The youths are also expected to be the major targets of vote-buying and other forms of electoral malpractices.

Deployment of security personnel

There is a heavy deployment of military personnel in the area, and many more are still pouring in. The police said 40,000 of their personnel will be deployed. The state has already heavy presence of military personnel. Some people are however of the opinion that the heavy deployment of military personnel during the week of the election may further drive down voters’ turnout.

Candidates’ strengths and weaknesses

The strength and weaknesses of the candidates could also shape the outcome of the election.

Out of the 1,932,654 registered voters, 107,715 voters’ cards are still awaiting collection in Kogi. The East, West and Central senatorial districts control 45, 35, and 20 per cents of the registered voters respectively. The state has 21 council are – 9 in the East, 7 in the West and 5 in the Central.

There are 18 candidates running for the governorship seats The candidates and their running mates are: Murtala Yakubu Ajaka (SDP) running with Sam Abeneme; Dino Melaye (PDP) running with Mrs Habeeba Ayatu; Ododo Usman (APC) is running with Joel Oyibo; Leke Abejide (ADC) running with Dr. Idris Omede; Retd Cmmodore Usman Jubrin (Accord) running with Chief Sam Olamife; Braimoh Olayinka (AA) running with Ogwu Simeon Ojone; Abel Yaba Emmanuel (AAC) running with Abu Moses Felix; Sunday Frank Onoja (APP) running with Kekere Rahamat; Dauda Utenwojo (APM) running with Ologe John Kola; Ilonah John (APGA) running with Nweke Benjamin Ikechukwu; and Julius Elupo (ADP) running with Mohammed Yahaya.

There is only one female candidate (Zenith Labour Party) and five female deputies.