President Tinubu: Beware Of The Backlash -By Dele Sobowale

“Those who sow the wind; will reap the whirlwind.”

The vocal elite are at it again. Every move by President Tinubu is hailed as the right thing to do — which will soon improve the economy. The last time any Nigerian leader tried to drag us into a market-led economy was when General Babangida introduced the Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP, in 1987; which was received with loud ovation — before the saboteurs went to work to wreck it. I have already published some of what happened. Some of the richest Nigerians today were among the worst saboteurs.

Deregulation of sectors long controlled by the government eventually will result in better allocation of resources; bring more foreign direct investment; release more funds for the government to spend on social services and improve peoples’ welfare and eventually create jobs. That is the theory. That is the cardinal reason those embarking on great reforms adduce to ask the citizenry to get ready to bear more pains after years of broken promises. In practice, the transition from pain to gain cannot be absolutely guaranteed. Several reasons account for why the change to a market-driven economy does not immediately yield desired results; and why it might never do — unless there is extreme vigilance. Here are a few to consider.

The Organised Private  Sector

“In a sick country, every step to health is an insult to those who live on the sickness.” — Bernard Malamud, 1914-1986, in THE FIXER,

  The Organised Private Sector, OPS, that well-respected group of people regarded as pillars of society, invariably openly support the reforms announced — including devaluation of the currency. But, because every economic change produces losers and winners, and affects different businesses differently, the immediate losers take measures to recover from their setbacks. Those measures, fair and foul, but a mixture of both, can derail the recovery and keep the economy in perpetual distress. From my investigations, bankers, without exception, were engaged in round-tripping during IBB’s SAP. By so doing, they kept the exchange rate rising perpetually. Other Nigerians became poorer; while they laughed to their banks for the misery they create. There is no reason to believe the current generation of bankers will be more patriotic. Self first.

Manufacturers, on their own part, throw in under-invoicing to avoid paying appropriate custom duties, Value Added Tax, VAT, and other levies. During SAP, shiploads of high quality raw materials are invoiced as less valuable items — knowing that the pre- and post-inspection entities have been effectively bribed. The Federal Government is effectively deprived of the revenue to which it is entitled and which will help pay for the palliatives — which might be introduced. After falsifying the import bill and evading tariff, they turn around and price the products as if they paid the actual duties. The rule of thumb for the FG is: “Suspect those regarded as above suspicion”. It is those awarded national honours who will constitute the obstacles to progress.

I know about these atrocities because the introduction of SAP in 1987 found me in the manufacturing sector. Though in Marketing/Sales department, my position was high enough to know what was going on. In one instance, a container said to contain agricultural equipment, five per cent duty, delivered a brand new Mercedes Benz, 100 per cent duty, in addition to other contraband.

NPA and wharf rats

“Things are not always what they seem to be.” — Jewish philosopher, 1980s.

  Ask anybody familiar with the operations in Nigerian maritime ports about wharf rats; and most likely, you will be told about those miscreants who break into warehouses at Apapa, Koko and Tin Can Island ports. The conventional wisdom makes us believe that those small-time crooks constitute the real danger to port users. Conventional wisdom is absolutely wrong. One thousand thieves will need to work one thousand days 24/7 to perpetrate the havoc which fat cats in the maritime sector can in one day — with a flick of the pen or a nod.

Nigerian Ports Authority, which should have been the fourth or fifth leading dollar revenue earner for the country, is the third most queried government parastatal by the Auditor-General of the Federation, AuGF, in his reports for the years 2016 to 2020 — which is the latest year available. The immediate past MD of NPA, daughter of Buhari’s friend, and very, very close to El-Rufai, appointed by Buhari, was by any measures imaginable, the least qualified person to head the NPA. As an untouchable, she treated the AuGF’s audit queries with contempt, Senate and House of Representatives summons with disdain and frequently bypassed the supervising Minister of Transportation to deal directly with Aso Rock – until the Minister was forced to make some horrible revelations. That was when Buhari reluctantly removed her. The atrocities were, of course, swept under the capacious Aso Rock carpet.

But, 90 percent of NPA business takes place in Lagos; and I personally know at least five families whose fourth generation members work at the ports. Working in different sections makes it possible for them to observe at close quarters questionable transactions, involving illegal duty and demurrage waivers for certain clients of the NPA from some states. It was persistent. That and alleged deposit of NPA income into non-NPA accounts etc were probably some of the fraudulent practices, with impunity, which forced the minister to raise alarm. Only God would know how many trillions of naira went missing on account of over twenty four ways by which top officials of NPA can embezzle public funds. Even a probe, which is more than justified, will only reveal a small fraction of how much Nigeria lost during the locust years under review now. But, we can have an idea by looking at the dramatic rise in revenue from the NPA since the new MD took over. It is not a 10 per cent or 50 per cent improvement. It is in the order of 200%-plus increase. Certainly, the current MD is not paying the vast amount from his own pockets; he has simply plugged some of the holes through which Nigeria’s money disappeared in the immediate past. A probe is needed.

Airport, seaport, national borders and Customs

“By their fruits you shall know them…”

  If you know anybody working for the Nigerian Customs Service, who lives well above his legal income, he most probably works in the Preventive Section. The problem is, they prevent very little and the service is a hot bed of corruption. I knew this years ago – especially when my family ran a Guest House at Idi-Iroko – Ajayi Inn. All the staff of the service posted to the border invariably without their transfer entitlements, started life at the border post as our debtors and acquaintances. Nobody asked us to excuse them when making deals with big time and frequent smugglers. The same thing in Kano; Ilela, Sokoto State etc. Anybody, who worked in that service for ten years, and who was not corrupted, deserves to be called a saint. Again, only God knows how much Nigeria loses each year on account of the corrupt practices by NCS staff. One thing is certain; the NCS, working hand-in-glove with forwarding and “backwarding” agents ensure that the FG never collects what it should — irrespective of how sound the fiscal and monetary policies of government might be. My Customs acquaintances were busy during the IBB years – draining funds from government into their own pockets….