The Lost Understanding: Why Opinion Polls Can’t Win Elections -By Femi Amosun

The 2023 General Election turned out to be more interesting than expected. As articulated in a previous piece 2023generalelectionreverberatingdejavu whereby l painstakingly narrated how the 1983 General Elections, and the subsequent Coup d’état, ruined many lives. It’s profoundly sad that even after forty years, too many fellow Nigerians are still engaging in Election violence and act of mortification. The mortification and visceral hatred (as opposed to conscious reasoning) perpetrated on the Social media (Facebook; Twitter: TikTok; YouTube etc.) will further destroy our international reputation, heighten the negative perception and downbeat narratives about Nigerians. This penchant for incivility has a far more reaching strategic implications beyond the myopic predisposition of the politicians and toxic TV “commentators” who consciously chose to ignite the flame.

We need to educate ourselves in order to overcome ignorance and somewhat naivety. Permit me to elucidate the concept of Marker research or Opinion Poll which may be designed to capture a comprehensive view of respondents in the sample, i.e., the specified sample to produce national, regional or local representative Sample. It may also be aimed to provide authoritative data to underpin a robust evidence-based in order to inform discussion and/or make decisions. The raw data may be collected through Questionnaires, telephone Interview, and Online polling methods. The data collected will then be analyzed and interpreted to deduce meaningful findings. Clever researchers always make conscious efforts to eliminate bias from the interpretation of the analysis and research findings. This is central to the concept of market research and Opinion poll.

From a Quantitative data viewpoint, basic Statistical techniques can be used to gain better understanding of business, political issues or economic situations. Arithmetic Mean; Standard Deviation; and Coefficient of Variation are all useful techniques.

From the simple illustration (See enclosed Illustrative table), we can determine the Mean of distribution and the average dispersion of each item around this mean. The Coefficient of variation may also reveal the fraction or percentage level. So if you calculate and apply the above statistical techniques and equation, it’ll distinctively show that all the Polls and arguments generated prior to the 2023 General Election were illogical and based solely on false hope. If you comprehensively understand the principles of Opinion Poll, you’ll realize that it can only predict the probability (likelihood) of the outcome, assuming the analysis and findings are not manipulated or skewed to influence any logical conclusion. All the haywire Opinion Polls released close to the 2023 General Elections should’ve been treated with caution and distrust.

In spite of all the brouhaha, raucous permutations, lousy inconsequential “Prophecies” activated by god of Men, and unnecessary overzealous excitement, the APC in Lagos State scored 762,134 Votes and gained an astounding distant margin of 449,805 Votes to the closest rival. This outcome show clearly that a Governorship position or Presidential Office is not for amateurs, inexperienced, and intolerant individuals who has no pedigree. The Lagos State election, as a case in point, also informed our understanding that there is no singular tribe or region in Nigeria that has the monopoly of bigotry and visceral hatred.

Thus the so-called “Obedient Movement” may now begin to understand that Opinion Polls, ethnocentric mentality or bigotry cannot win you elections. You have to learn and understand that Public service is not about individual gains or personal achievement.

There is a distinctive difference between Public service and Private enterprises. In simplistic terms, Public service is about delivering benefits to the people in a community or society. The key understanding here is providing tangible Service(s) that helps or benefits the people you’re meant to serve. In sharp contrast, Private enterprises are the economic activities of a commercial, professional, or industrial organization. Private enterprises exist solely to make profit. Perhaps the lack of understanding is one of the fundamental reasons why we’re lagging behind other developing countries. Therefore, Elections are not commodity or batch of consignments. You cannot treat Election or political office as cash cow. It is not done anywhere in the world, and certainly, not in the best interest of the people. Quality Public service is about meeting, and exceeding, expectations.

The rational mind is cognizant of the fact that you cannot develop a Society or Country whereby ethnicity, indigenship, religion, personality aggrandizement is used to get into Public office. Such approach is a fraud and fruitless in the context of collective value. We can only develop when the sole focus is on collective interest, and not perpetual individualistic-centric mental attitude. Let me humbly elucidate that, the human race does not exist because of individual self-importance and greed, the human race triumph because of collective sense of purpose. Once we start to learn from this core principle of humanity, we may revivify progressive understanding.

Femi Amosun, aside from his main profession, is a politico-economic analyst. He has maintained an active interest in researching into Foreign Trade Policy and Strategic Trade Development in the African context. He is a long standing advocate of National Airline. Femi writes from London, UK.

Tag: Femi Amosun, 2023 General Elections, Lagos State, Opinion polls