Tinubu vs Osinbajo, now there’s real realpolitik (I) -By Tunji Ajibade

There was that last time I turned to the National Leader of the All Progressives Party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo. At that stage, I had wondered if there was indeed a contest between the two personalities for the seat of the president. Now there is. I promised to return if Osinbajo publicly informed Nigerians he was interested. So here I am and I shall be stringing a few issues together.

The day Osinbajo declared, journalists asked Tinubu what he had to say now that his “political godson” desired the seat that Tinubu had earlier declared he wanted. At that time, the Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the foremost organiser of supporters for Tinubu, was standing beside his political leader. From his body language and the “thank you, thank you” he quickly said to journalists after the question was asked, I imagined this was one question he wouldn’t have wanted Tinubu to respond to. But as Sanwo-Olu and others were about to turn and walk away, Tinubu stood still. For me, that moment also stood still. I watched closely, realising that there could come from Tinubu a landmark comment, one that could determine the nature and texture of the political space for a long time. He did as I expected. That was the kind of moment I looked out for in our public space, the kind that had in the past inspired me to, as it does most creative people, put pen to paper and recorded my impression of what I saw in different genres.

At that moment, I watched the mien and posture of a politician who, to me, had just been asked the most important question of his political career; I mean the question that could attract a response which could determine how the political game pre-2023 would be played, who would eventually be president. I sensed Tinubu’s response would henceforth define the relationship between him and the man who was once in his cabinet in Lagos State.

I have stated in the past that we see and hear the same thing differently. I watched Tinubu closely after the question was asked, not just because I wanted to hear his response as news as any journalist would. I also watched with the awareness of a playwright and a literary/art reporter as well. I saw the stuff of drama in that small but hugely significant moment. I knew the moment could be larger and more significant when captured in a play. So I watched Tinubu like one who wanted to inscribe that moment in a play and, of course, my play won the Association of Nigerian Authors Prize for Drama in 201; three others took 2nd position of the same prize in 2010, 2015 and 2017. I also watched that small but huge moment the way a literary/art reporter would. For it’s the kind of dramatic moment that can give a literary/art report its unique texture, many of which I had on the art page of The Guardian newspaper for over five years.

In addition, Tinubu gave a performance that if I were a lecturer in Political Science (a field in which I hold a PhD) I would elect to study further. What transpired at that time is the stuff of political science. As a lecturer, this kind of scenario, the outset of rivalry between politicians, would have spurred me to come up with hypotheses regarding political personalities (such as Tinubu and Osinbajo) and use such to engage in an empirical analysis of the manner politics is played and what the road to political power generally looks like in our nation. I would have chosen to follow closely too the scenario that shall yet unfold between Tinubu and his “political godson” now that Osinbajo has declared his interest and how this plays out in the APC primaries and the eventual emergence of a president in 2023. That’s how hugely significant, for me, that moment was.

Even at that, there are issues the question Tinubu was asked and the response he gave raised. Before I go into those, I return to the question Tinubu was asked and which he chose to answer rather than avoid. His response was, “I have no son grown enough to declare” for the seat of the president in 2023. The fact that an answer was given was helpful as this gave insight into how Tinubu received the news of Osinbajo’s declaration. His response leaves no one in doubt that a political rivalry has emerged and he’s implying ‘we’ll settle this on the political battlefield.” More importantly, Tinubu’s open declaration of political battle was helpful for the Nigerian electorate who were my focus in my last intervention regarding this matter.

At the time, I stated that it would be for the good of our democracy when every person who wanted to be president declared their interest and then fought for the seat they desired. The fight will help Nigerians know exactly what the plans of the politicians they’re voting for are. While fighting, candidates will outdo one another to sell themselves to Nigerians with regard to what they plan to do and how they’ll do it. This helps citizens make good choices; whoever is elected will be widely acceptable to the populace, a phenomenon that can consolidate the unity and peace of our nation.

As already stated, the response Tinubu gave pointed to some issues. One of such issues is that the scenario his response has created helps me prove a point I made in mid-2018 when some figures emerged in the political space, wanting to be president in 2019. They did inspire enthusiasm, especially among the younger generation. But to those who engaged me in private discussions at the time, I had stated that their enthusiasm was misplaced. I said many of the figures would soon disappear from the scene and they did. A good understanding of the crucial indices in Nigeria’s political arena is all one needs in order to make such a prediction.The other day, there was one such move made again by some politicians. Someone pointed out to me events where some new political groups were emerging, noting further that their presence would make the political race for 2023 interesting. I agreed it would be interesting but I said it was all there would be to it. I pointed to some of the key individuals present at the event who said they were coming together to take power. To the person who engaged me in the discussion, I placed each of these politicians he was enthusiastic about in the context of Nigerian politics. I stated why it would be difficult for any of them to make an impact when the raw reality of how we played politics in Nigeria was considered.

Now that Tinubu and Osinbajo are in the race, and a host of others too have expressed interest, I think my submission back in 2018 will have additional empirical evidence and this excites me in the contest that we’re set to witness. For those who don’t know yet, they’ll be able to see what is obtainable in Nigerian politics and what is not. The latest dimension to the Tinubu-Osinbajo relationship will dominate discourse within the ruling party before and after the primaries; this, for some obvious reasons I shall yet return to.

The second issue is that there’s an element of daring in the manner Tinubu chose to frontally confront a fundamental issue, i.e. verbally, and clearly define the nature of his relationship with Osinbajo now that the VP shows interest in the same office he’s interested in. Did Tinubu favour Osinbajo as VP nominee in 2014 so that he would have someone who would not be a rival to him in 2023?

If that was the calculation, it hasn’t worked as planned. It happens all the time in politics. To me, what Tinubu has done through his response is to make it clear that he’s fully aware of the new situation. He’s saying he’s prepared to meet the challenge, that there’s no shying away from reality on the ground, it’s obvious Osinbajo too has determinedly made up his mind about it before he declared. Realpolitik that has kicked in here is pulsating.

tunjioa@yahoo.com; 08036683657

To be concluded