Political Issues
A Good Look At How Buhari Will Lose Saturday’s Election -By Umar Sa’ad Hassan
INEC has put the final number of registered voters for the 2019 general elections at 84 million with the North West leading the pack as usual with 20.2 million followed by the South West with 16.3 million registered voters. The thumb-print columns on the ballot-papers have been compressed further by INEC to accommodate the very many parties duly registered and what that means in essence, is that there will be many more invalid votes than usual. We may witness a very high rate of rerun elections this year. Considering previous election turn-out, voter enthusiasm and current political climate in the 36 states, this is what is expected to happen in this Saturday’s Presidential election subject to it being free and fair.
NORTH WEST
President Buhari will clinch the majority of votes in this region. Atiku will take it down to the wire in Kaduna. Asides the secured votes in the Christian-dominated southern part of the state, he will also grab a handful in other places due to the quite decent PDP structure on the ground. While Kano ranks alongside Kebbi and Katsina as states, Buhari is guaranteed a clear win, Atiku should get close to 30% of the votes cast due to the Kwankwasiyya machinery working in his
The under-whelming performance of the incumbent Jigawa state governor has allowed Shehu Lamido and the PDP to endear themselves to the people and though this is highly debatable, Atiku will win Jigawa narrowly.
Verdict-Buhari 6 Million votes Atiku-3.7 Million
The South-Western electorate is the most liberal and open-minded in Nigeria. Whether we like it or not, we have not out-grown the politics of ethnicity and religion. The major thing Buhari has going for him in the core northern states is an insep
The South West has no such problem. Tinubu has lost some degree of respect outside Lagos and the APC can no longer bank on his influence across the whole region. It will be a close contest in most of the states except of course Lagos; the capital of Tinubu’s crumbling empire where Buhari should enjoy a comfortable v
Verdict-Atiku 3 million votes Buhari 2.5 million
NORTH EAST
The average person in Yobe, Borno
Everyone expects Atiku to win Gombe because of the strong PDP presence there but Buhari is still very much loved by the masses there and he should win. Bauchi has the largest number of voters in the North East and in addition to the people being dissatisfied with the state governor’s performance, they are also the most enlightened in the region. They understand fully well that the question at this juncture is whether or not Nigerians deserve better. The state has a history of impressive voter turn-out and we may just see half of the registered 2 million plus voters cast their ballot. Of that million, Atiku’s victory should be by a margin of about roughly 200,000. The biggest Atiku margin in this region should come from Taraba. The former Minister of Women Affairs, Aisha Jummai Alhassan was the APC in the state and she migrated with all the party
Verdict-Buhari 2.3 Million votes Atiku 1.5 Million votes
SOUTH EAST
The APC has tried gaining a foothold in the South South and South East by enlisting some big names in the region but it really won’t count. These people were always going to vote against a man who promised delivering dividends according to how he was voted after his last victory. Talk more one who has performed worse than any President we have ever had. The Vice-Presidential candidate of the PDP, Peter Obi is an Igbo and at the very least,5 million of the 10 million registered voters in the South East are expected to cast their votes this weekend. Of that 5 million, It would take a miracle for Buhari to get 400,000 votes.
Verdict-Atiku 4.7 Million votes Buhari 300,000 votes
SOUTH SOUTH
Despite the APC having presence in some
Verdict-Atiku 6.6 million votes Buhari 400,000 votes
NORTH CENTRAL
The North-Central has the 3rd largest voters registered and it is more or less the region that erases all doubts as to an Atiku victory in a free and fair contest. Of the over 1.6 million registered voters in Kogi, 600,000 are expected to turn out and more than half of that number will vote the PDP.
Verdict-Atiku 2.7 Million votes Buhari 1.5 Million Votes
Final Verdict – Atiku: 25.3 Million; Buhari: 10 Million
Umar Sa’ad Hassan is a lawyer based in Kano
Twitter:@Alaye_100 Email:uhassan077@gmail.com