BUHARI, 2019 AND THE YORUBAS… -By Abdullahi O. Haruna

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Abdullahi O. Haruna


I did promise not to dwell in political writings; here unfortunately, I am breaking the creed of vow. But who is man without political writing when our lives are defined by politics. Man as they say is a political animal struggling for survival in the wild terrain of life. Pardon me therefore to join in the interpretations of our political manifestations.

The race for 2019 has begun in earnest with all parties contending and pretending at the same time. We know who the winners are even though we are not seers. When you put one and two permutations together, you arrive somehow at a predictive conclusion. The battle for the presidential seat is absolutely not about Muhammadu Buhari, it goes beyond him. The calculation is for who succeeds him in 2023! And at the forefront of this expectation is the Yoruba race; they have planned strategically to reap the fruits of their toils. Their investments have been enduring all the way, they are never in haste but tacit in their calculations. Championed by a strategist in the person of Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, the race has done its homework and is only waiting to assume what they have painstakingly worked for.

Now this is the political arithmetic, if Buhari refuses to run in 2019, it will spell doom for the Yorubas, their plans will be truncated and all investments lost. Therefore they will do everything possible for a Buhari’s win in 2019. Buhari’s refusal to run in 2019 will mean APC bringing forth a northern candidate to complete Buhari’s agreed eight years in office. Tragically, this new northern candidate like GEJ did in 2015 may wants to have his own two terms in office thus distorting the zoning arrangement of the APC and sending the Yorubas once again into political wilderness. Remember the last time the Yorubas tasted the presidency was 10 years ago! To avert this unpalatable harvest, the South-West will go all ways to have a Muhammadu Buhari in office come 2019. This is not desperation but political investment because ethnic and religious interests define the entity called Nigeria unfortunately. As long as it remains a reference decimal, we are going to have it as deciding compass. It is an unfortunate reality we are stuck with.

Whether we accept it or not, the people of South Western Nigeria from all empirical evidences seem to be the most retrospective, calculative and foresighted. They spend time, energy and resources thinking their survival in the murky waters of Nigeria’s politics. They are taciturn and deeply reflective in their quests. And at the forefront of this silent revolution is the irrepressible Ahmed Bola Tinubu. He has endured pains, torture and persecutions to remain who and where he is. Not a man of many rambunctious words, he plots tactically to the general benefit of the Yoruba race. Whether you don’t like him or not, this man has assumed the larger status of late political sage Sir Obafemi Awolowo. That Tinubu is always the courted bride in Nigeria political history today is to attest to his ingenuity, sagacity and sacrifices. Unlike others, he rarely invests in himself but in others. That is why a country’s vice president, two ministers, and other head of critical organizations were once his prodigies. A man with this kind of fruity baggage is indeed an accomplished leading political legend. Not even an Obasanjo can rival Ahmed Bola Tinubu in political worthiness. He earned this status from years of hard work, investments and sacrifices.

With a Buhari’s candidature in 2019, all would be set for an Osinbajo to wants to succeed his boss. Except of course you are saying the man is not a Yoruba man, otherwise, it’s going to be difficult to deny him the Yoruba representation. For an Aiswaju, this is the game plan and he is very ready to reinvest all his political resources to make this happen. The candidate of Yomi Osinbajo in 2023 will sell like a virgin bride – everything would be at his advantage. Years of sustained loyalty, impeccable personal quality, experience and power of incumbency will combine to speak favorably for him. And the biggest selling point would be the #continuity agenda.

The vice presidency slot will be an open slot between the Middle Belt and the South East of Nigeria. Like the South West, these two regional blocs can begin to ‘permutate’ and galvanize on their unique selling points. The Yorubas got to this point not by happenstances but from deliberate long years of tacit planning. Be like the South West, begin your homework, build frontiers and begin to nurture leaders you can bring forth. At the long run, the region to produce the president after the eight years reign of the South West would be the region that deputizes the Yoruba candidate comes 2023. As for the North and South South, it’s going to be a long wait by the side for power must be equitably distributed in the Nigerian geographical structure.

*This is Abdullahi O. Haruna haruspice musing from the political capital of common sense.