Development Plans in Nigeria: Lessons from the Past and Way Forward -By Khalifa Musa Muhammad

According to Benjamin Franklin “by failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”. On 10 November 2021, the Minister of Finance, Zainab Shamsuna Ahmed, announced the launching of the 2021-2025 National Development Plan during the virtual Federal Executive Council meeting chaired by the Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo. A development plan is like a roadmap and it is crucial to achieving sustainable economic growth.

Indeed this is commendable and it seems the administration is learning from its mistakes. It has not escaped our memory that it took a while for the administration to have a presidential economic adviser or an economic team. It did not stop there but, in its first term, the administration spent six months without having ministers. A development plan does not indicate the end of all worries or problems. Nigeria has had numerous plans to promote economic growth and four of the plans have been labelled national development plans. Sadly, these plans have not really satisfactorily achieved their objectives.

The First National Development Plan (1962-1968) was comprehensive and one of its objectives was to speed up the rate of economic growth. Impressively, the contribution of the industrial sector rose from 5% to 8% from 1960 to 1970. The projects that were executed under this plan include: Port Harcourt Refinery, the Niger Bridge and Kainji Dam, amongst others. Unfortunately, the coups of 1966 and civil war affected the performance of the plan.

The Second National Development Plan (1970-1975) was launched to ameliorate the effects caused by the 30-month old civil war. One of the objectives of the plan was to create a free and democratic society. Wow! How kind of the military regime. The plan was during the oil boom period and the projected capital expenditure was close to 5 billion naira. The plan pursued the indigenization policy to encourage Nigerians to take part in financial, commercial and industrial activities of the Nigerian economy. Sadly, the indigenization policy was not as successful despite the promulgation of decrees to ensure compliance.

The Third National Development Plan (1975-1980) had a projected investment pegged at 43.3 billion naira. Diversification and reducing unemployment were part of the objectives of the plan. But financial allocation to agriculture was just 5% despite the contribution of agriculture to achieve the objectives of the plan. The Third National Development did not really achieve its target and some of the projects have not made the desired impact on the economy. One of which is the Ajaokuta Iron and Steel Complex.

The Fourth National Development Plan (1981-1985) also looked to reduce unemployment and underemployment. The capital investments were projected at 82 billion naira. Unfortunately, with high inflation and inability to realize enough resources, financing of the plan was affected. This was not helped by the backlog of projects from the previous plans. A conference was held in November 1984 at the University of Ibadan to put in place mechanisms for the Fifth National Development Plan. The talk took place but the plan never saw the light of the day. These plans have been followed up by other plans in order advance growth and development but all have failed to meet their desired objectives.

The 2021-2025 National Development Plan is a successor to the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) which was to last from 2017 to 2020. The ERGP was launched so that the economy will bounce back from recession and then be put on a pedestal that will lead to improved and sustainable growth; in order to avoid further decline. The main priorities of the ERGP are: (a) stabilizing the macroeconomic
environment with low inflation, stable exchange rates and sustainable fiscal and external balances (b) using agriculture to achieve food security, create jobs and save foreign exchange for food imports (c) ensuring energy sufficiency (power and petroleum products).

As at 2019 the ERGP failed to meet some of its projections like: the projection of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was 4.5% while the actual value was 2.27%; the projection of unemployment/underemployment was 29.65% and the actual value was 43.3%; the projection for the oil production was 2.4 mpbd but the actual value was 2.0 mpbd. I chose 2019 for the comparison because of the covid-19 pandemic that has been affecting the economy since 2020.

The ERGP plan envisaged delivering 10 GW operational capacity by 2020. On 28 October 2020, the then Minister of Power Engr Sale Mamman told the House of Representatives Committee that the capacity of the power generation grid was 13,000 MW with a capacity to evacuate 5,500 MW. In the 21st century the need for technology can never be overemphasised. With the aid of technology things are now not just easier but faster. Electricity helps to drive the tapping of the benefits of technology. An appraisal of the ERGP shows that it failed to achieve its target and objectives.

Similarly, previous national development plans have failed to really meet their targets. History helps us to reflect and avoid mistakes. Previous plans have highlighted the need to diversify the economy and reduce unemployment but much has not been achieved in these regard. This is sad and worrisome for a country like Nigeria. Corruption; lack of relevant and accurate data; over ambitious plans; lack of political will and plan discipline; and lack of continuity in governance have all hampered the success of these development plans. Today, adding to these threats is insecurity.

Nigeria is currently ravaged by insecurity. The northwestern part of Nigeria is heavily infested by bandits/kidnappers who scare away travellers. For example, the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano road has been badly affected by the insecurity. This road is vital to the economy because it helps in the conveyance of goods and services by linking the northwest and northeast Nigeria to the southern part of the country. This is one of the many routes threatened by insecurity in Nigeria. Insecurity inhibits growth and development and without peace and unity there is not much progress that can be achieved from the ambitious 2021-2025 National Development Plan. The plan will be another failure if we fail to nip this challenge in the bud.

Furthermore, entertainment and sports are two areas that need more attention by government to promote national development. The government should create an enabling environment for the teeming youth to display and showcase their potentials. This will increase revenue and enable the government in achieving its desire of lifting 100 million people out of poverty in 10 years.

I hope the current ambitious plan will achieve its objectives and not face setbacks of previous plans. It is time to put an end to designing over ambitious plans in this country. The policymakers should always ensure that the projections are true reflections of the situations on ground to really meet the objectives of the plan. The progress of Nigeria is not commensurate to its potential. Hopefully with sound plans that mirror realities on ground we will achieve a lot as a nation.

Khalifa Musa Muhammad a public affairs analyst from Kaduna.