Kogi guber: Ododo, Melaye, Abejide in three-horse race

WITH the completion of the governorship primaries of the various political parties, the battle for the Kogi State Government House known as Lugard House is getting clearer and tougher.

Political gladiators have returned to their trenches plotting to win the November 11 governorship election and become Governor Yahaya Bello’s successor in January next year.

Interestingly, the just concluded governorship primaries produced 11 candidates, who are jostling for the votes of the electorate in the Confluence State.

The candidates

Those eyeing Lugard House and holding party tickets are Ahmed Usman Ododo, All progressives Congress, APC; Dino Melaye, Peoples Democratic Party,   PDP; Leke Abejide, African Democratic Congress, ADC; Olayinka Braimoh, Action Alliance, AA; Dauda Isah, Allied Peoples Movement, APM; Adejoh Okeme, Labour Party, LP;   Usman Jibril, Social Democratic Party, SDP; Julius Elukpo, Action democratic Party, ADP;   Musa Mubarak/Abdullahi Bawa, New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP; Samson Omale, Young Progressive Party, YPP; and Abdullahi Bayawo, Peoples Redemption Party, PRP.

Of the 11 contenders, one is from Kogi Central, three are from Okun extraction of Kogi West and the rest are from Kogi East.  

Disputed primaries

Majority of the parties’ primaries ended up in disputes, some parties even held parallel primaries. 

In the NNPP, Musa Mubarak and Abdullahi Bawa emerged as parallel flagbearers.

While Mubarak was elected in the primary at the Children Amusement Park that party members in Kogi participated in, Abdullahi Bawa, a serving House of Representatives, emerged from a process allegedly handled by national officers from Abuja.

Also, while Okeme emerged at the KAFAS multipurpose hall as the Labour Party candidate, another faction of the LP produced another candidate the same day at the Big Brothers Hotel in Lokoja. 

The same scenario played out in ADC which produced Leke Abejide as the sole candidate on Saturday only for the Kogi West Senatorial candidate of the party, Dele Williams, to be declared winner of another primary spearheaded by the suspended state chairman, Kingsley Ogga, 24 hours later.

However, the ADC national body had forwarded the name of Abejide to INEC as the party’s candidate. 

In the APC, the direct primary adopted has been criticized by majority of the aspirants who felt that the primary committee favoured Governor Bello’s anointed candidate, Usman Ododo, who emerged as winner. For the likes of Senator Smart Adeyemi; APC Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Muri Ajaka; former Minister, Stephen Ocheni; and four others, the primary did not hold. Even now, a party stalwart, Mr Rilwan Okpanachi, a lawyer, has approached the court for the primary to be quashed. It was the same Okpanachi who made the court to nullify the delegates’ election the APC intended to use for indirect primary before opting for direct mode.

The People’s Democratic Party, PDP, also has its fair share of dispute, as no less than three other aspirants, namely – Yomi Awoniyi, Bolufemi Olarotimi and Haruna Usman, have kicked at the emergence of Dino Melaye as the party’s candidate. 

To them, Dino connived with some executive of the party to have his stooges as the 185 delegates instead of the authentic names. They had, days before the primary, vowed to ‘destroy’ the party if nothing was done to change the delegates list to the authentic names. They have continued their threats insisting that authentic delegates did not vote at the primary that produced Melaye.

Despite the number of candidates, the contest as of now, appears to be a three-horse race among the ruling APC, PDP and ADC.

Burning issues

Two major burning issues in the state have been the tussle for power rotation and demand for a Christian governor.  

Power shift

The emergence of Dino Melaye (PDP) and Leke Abejide (ADC) has not only rekindled the hope of Kogi West agitators for power-shift but has also balanced the demand for a Christian governor. Leke and Dino are of the Okun extraction from Yagba East and Ijumu council areas of Kogi West Senatorial District respectively; and both are Christians.

The agitators for power shift are hinging their stand on the fact that the Igala-dominated Kogi East had held power for 17 cumulative civil years while the Ebira-dominated Kogi Central are on the verge of completing eight years but the West has never tasted power. 

To them, the 16:8:0 formula is unpalatable to a heterogeneous state like Kogi and there’s a need to balance power. 

On another hand are Christian governor agitators like former CAN chairman, Bishop Emmanuel Ibenu, who said that it was not out of place for people to demand for a governor of Christian extraction in a 32 years old state that has experienced five elected Muslim governors.

Abejide’s chances

The ADC candidate, Leke Abejide, is expected to garner a majority of the votes from the Western axis of the state if all things remain constant. Abejide, through his widely accepted Free WAEC payment for his Yagba Federal Constituency was not only able to win a resounding second term in the February 25 National Assembly election, he has also been able to spread his good fortune to another Federal Constituency, Kabba-Bunu/ Ijumu where his party won the seat. He also helped to deliver Yagba West state Constituency for his party.

The ADC as a party may not have strong structures but what they lack in structures they made up in Leke’s goodwill. Abejide had twice defeated APC and PDP in their strongholds of Yagba Federal Constituency through coalition. He understands the politics of harvesting aggrieved party members from other parties to work for his victory; same strategy he will be taking to the governorship poll. 

Sources said the ADC is already talking with Muri Ajaka of the APC to come and deputise Leke. The combined forces of Leke, Muri and other aggrieved members of PDP and ADC may spring a surprise in the election.

The opposition ADC on the other hand is perceived to enjoy a robust relationship with the APC President-Elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Abejide jettisoned his party’s presidential candidate to create a support group – Asiwaju Confluence Campaign Organization, ACCO, that worked for Tinubu success in the February presidential election. 

Despite being a first timer in the National Assembly from an opposition party, Abejide was made the Chairman, House Committee on Custom and Excise duties. Abejide is also a close friend of Jigawa State Governor, Badaru. It is to be seen if these factors will swing victory to him at the poll.

Melaye’s cross

Dino is going into battle with bruised party structures. Aside from the disputed primary, PDP has lost its streaks in the state. The leadership of the party has not only lost steam, they are presently at their lowest ebb. Governor Bello jubilated openly when Dino won the PDP ticket. 

From one Senate seat, and three House of Representatives seats in 2019, the party has gone down to zero Senate seats and one House of Representative seat in 2023. They also managed to win two out of the 25 State Assembly seats.

Though Dino has quickly commenced fence-mending with aggrieved members and critical stakeholders of the party, he has the Herculean task of surmounting the Federal Government might of Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, who will be the sitting president during the election. Dino had so much taunted Tinubu during the presidential campaign, causing political pundits to predict a ‘pay back’ in the November 11 poll. Political observers rate him below Abejide of the ADC in Western Senatorial axis.

I’m on a rescue 

mission – Melaye

Melaye said he is coming to liberate Kogites from the misrule of Yahaya Bello. To him, the existing infrastructures in the state were projects initiated and completed when PDP governors ruled the state, boasting that the party is poised to return to power based on that. 

He said that there was no way PDP’s achievements in 13 years of governing the state would be compared to the eight years of maladministration by Governor Bello. He even termed the first ever fly over in the state capital as ‘Centre table.”

Will incumbency

factor deliver Ododo? 

The APC and its candidate, Odod, will rely so much on the power of incumbent governor, Yahaya Bello. Both Bello and Ododo hail from the same Okene community. To some, Ododo can easily pass as Bello’s cousin.

The APC also boasts of three senators, six House of Representatives members, and 22 of 25 House of Assembly members in their kitty.

The APC candidate is the only Egbira and candidate from Kogi Central as majority of the other parties supported power shift to West or believe that the zone should not retain power after Bello’s eight years in office. 

This means Ododo will also benefit from the solidarity of his kinsmen who are known to always support their brothers in any race, aside from a few like Dr. Tom Ohikere who is in the forefront of the power shift to Kogi West. The Central controls 25 percent register voters.

Speaking shortly after picking the APC ticket, Ododo, who was the auditor-general of the state under Bello said he would be building on the legacies of his boss, especially in security and infrastructure.  

Igala as political bride

The Igala, despite commanding 45 percent of the registered voters, has now taken the back bench in the governorship election. The zone has no strong candidate in the race but has become the political bride as the three major parties are looking to pick their deputies from the zone.  

The choice of the deputy will go a long way to determine the winner of the race. A strong deputy will curry favour for its governorship flag bearer.