Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Declines to 1.486m bpd in November — OPEC Report

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revealed that Nigeria’s crude oil production—excluding condensates—fell by 0.7 percent to 1.486 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, down from 1.496 million bpd recorded in October 2025.

Condensate volumes are not counted under OPEC’s crude production figures. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria currently produces around 196,028 bpd of condensates.

OPEC released the data in its December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), which noted that the latest figures were sourced from secondary data providers. Based on these numbers, Nigeria once again fell short of its 1.5 million bpd OPEC production quota.

However, OPEC’s figures obtained from direct communications showed that Nigeria pumped 1.436 million bpd in November 2025, up slightly from 1.401 million bpd in October.

Despite the month-to-month decline, the November 2025 output represented a slight rise compared to the 1.417 million bpd recorded in November 2024.

Speaking to Vanguard, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Wumi Iledare, said the numbers were expected.

According to him:
“That Nigeria’s crude oil output (excluding condensates) for November 2025 at 1.486 mbpd—just slightly below October’s 1.496 mbpd and still short of the 1.5 mbpd target—is not too surprising.
“The reasons are familiar: insecurity, a mature basin with no major new discoveries, and the failure to offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding. Governance gaps remain overwhelming, and policy uncertainty continues to weaken investor confidence.
“The selective implementation of the PIA must stop. Nigeria urgently needs a clearly designated leader with institutional authority to drive the sector. Too many proxy drivers will not work. I cannot recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota.”

Meanwhile, NUPRC has projected a national output of over 2.5 million barrels of oil per day in the coming years.

The Commission Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, highlighted progress since NUPRC was created in 2021, noting that Nigeria’s active rig count has grown from 16 in 2021 to 40 under its regulatory oversight.

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