Osun Gubernatorial Election: The Bad, The Ugly And The Intriguing Complications -By Oladipupo Olamilekan

As the race to elect the new Governor of Oyo State drives nearer ahead In July, the International community, National observers, Politicians and conscious Nigeria especially those in the Southwest have shifted their attention on the upcoming Election. Each Party have started their mobilization, horse trading, house to house campaign, sensitization and the need for people to vote for them come July 16. In less than a Month now, the People of Omoluabi State will vote for an individual that will steer the affairs of the State in the next four years. 

The 2022 Osun State gubernatorial election will take place on 16 July 2022, to elect the governor of Osun State. Incumbent APC Governor Gboyega Oyetola is eligible for reelection and has been re nominated by his party. The primaries, scheduled for between 16 February and 12 March, resulted in Oyetola winning the APC nomination for a second time, albeit amid outcry from his primary challengers. For the main opposition PDP, longtime internal disputes led to two parallel primaries being held as a faction nominated former senatorial candidate Dotun Babayemi while the faction recognized by the national PDP nominated former Senator for Osun West Ademola Adeleke, the party’s 2018 nominee. As the Independent National Electoral Commission only observed the primary that nominated Adeleke, he is listed as the PDP nominee.

OSUN APC AND OYETOLA & ITS INTERNAL WOES

One would agree with me that both major Parties in Osun state currently have an internal fraction. The Ruling Party has a Power tussle and conflict of interest between the loyalist of the former state Governor, the former Governor himself Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and the current Governor. The Fracas which started like two years ago have degenerated to what might cost the Party a big blow in the coming Election if care isn’t taken. However, as much as one could say, if by performance and delivery of dividends of Democracy for People is the no yardstick to win an Election, Governor Gboyega Oyetola by now should have being  believe to win his reelection bid but Politics goes beyond that.

We have had Governors that perform in delivering of dividends of democracy and still went to lose their reelection bid due to Party Crisis and management of the Political Mafias: that notion of “Mutatis mutandis” makes him to have an edge on his co contestants: a candidates that has once work in private firm for years, eight years chief of staff under immediate past Government and now a sitting Governor. If by the virtue of Governance experience, Governor Gboyega Oyetola has the clear advantage. To the Governor’s camps, the next four years if given the mandate could have been an avenue to continue the Legacy the Governor have started.

As far as Osun State Gubernatorial is concerned, it might not be an easy ride for the ruling party like that of Ekiti. Going back to memory lane, we should not shy away from the fact that the Osun APC currently is like a house divided against itself. During the first term bid of Governor Oyetola reelection, Major Party stalwart like Rt. Honorable Najeeem Salam (Iwaloye) from Ejigbo, Lasun Yussuf, from Ilobu, Bola Ilori,Kolapo Alimi, Moshood Adeoti from Iwo and the host of others Loyalist of Governor Aregebseola are now passive to the reelection bid of Governor Gboyega Oyetola. The Immediate Governor of Osun state himself have not in any way being active towards Oyetola Reelection bid. Ever since the reelection bid of Governor Gboyega Oyetola started none of the The Osun Progressives (TOP) have been able to come out clearly in order to support the Ileri Oluwa Agenda back to Abere House. 

OSUN PDP, ADEMOLA ADELEKE & ITS INTERNAL WOES 

Likewise, the People’s Democratic Party could have benefited immensely on this lingering crisis in APC but the PDP itself is a house of confusion and conflict. Some have opined that the Winner takes it all strategy of the Adeleke’s Family have caused a lot of infractions in the Party. The Akin Ogunbiyi factions and Adagunodo during and after the Primary Election have been on loggerheads with the Adeleke’s caucus. The event that played out before the Party Primary Election has however make the Party Stakeholder to be at loggerhead with each other. The crisis has forced Dr Akin Ogunbiyi back to the Accord Party just as Lasun Yussuf move out of APC to SDP. 

Moreso,the likes of Soji Adagunodo, Erelu Obada, and Olagunsoye Oyinlola who haven’t left the Party are unconcerned and have stay aloof from Adeleke’s Campaign. The National Body of the Party itself isn’t helping the matter. The Party at the Centre have not been proactive enough to settle the lingering crisis in the Party. The Said reconciliation process between Dotun Babayemi and Demola Adeleke appears not be a genuine one while the elites class in Osun Stae have also questioned the Personality of Ademola Adeleke on whether or not if he has the Intellectual sagacity to be number one Citizen of the State. It should be noted that while the PDP lost a member of their party in Honourable ASLER,it has henceforth been an additional advantage to Governor Gboyega Oyetola Camp. On Saturday 25th of this Month, he publicly declare his support for Governor Gboyega Oyetola reelection bid.

If the Election is to arrive at issues based with the Candidate Intellectual sagacity, the PDP Candidate has gotten some questions to answer. However, Politics isn’t founded on credibility and competency alone most especially at this side of the World, it’s all about getting ones permutations right. One could expressly state it that the Current situation in both Party is a case of Party divided against itself. It’s a Practical example of House of commotions. Who that will favours, it’s too slim for any predict.

AS WE APPROACH JULY 16

Put it differently, the Guber Candidate of all the fringe Parties in the State could later work in in interest of one of the two Strongest Party in the State. The OSUN Guber Election in 2023 away from Political Permutations and all, it will still be an Election on issue based and more of Personality Reflections. Forget about the Crowd that follows Politicians here and there prior to election and during the campaign. Its deceiving most times.  Also, the Asiwaju Tsunami’s as we approach the Election in July will have its very solid point to prove.

 The notions of Vote buying can’t be prevented. We have seen a video where Demola Adeleke has boastfully said that he has come with loads of Hard currencies ranging from Dollar, Pounds Sterling and Euro. Even if Governor Gboyega Oyetola appears to look calm and reserved, it will amount to one deceiving himself if one believe that both party won’t be involved in this shenanigans.

The APC itself knew how important the Osun Election is to the ambition of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu Election come 2023 so the Party wont in any way want to take it for mere feferity or with levity hand. The dynamics, permutations, in house fraction and the expectations of the Party is quite different from the Ekiti own. PDP, regardless of the internal fraction has gotten a financial warchest structure with Senator  Ademola Adeleke. 

However, when the PDP National body is still finding it hard to settle the rancor at National level, the APC at the National level inaugurated the Campaign Team for Governor Gboyega Oyetola with two Sitting Governor as Co-Chairman and more than 17 Governors as members of the Committees, Ministers, and Former Ministers are also in the Planning Committee. While this People might not appear to decide the wish of the electorate, the Inauguration has shown seriousness on a Party that is prepared to win the Guber Election next, Month. 

A Party like PDP should not for any reason keep doing the same thing the same way and expect a different result. Governor Abdulahi Ganduje who is dubbed as the Co- Chairman for Oyetola RE-ELECTION has shown his interest in settling the rancor between Aregbesola’s Loyalist and the camp of the Governor. While the reconciliation might not be total, one would have expected someone from the PDP National body to take up the Leadership position in settling the unending crisis in Osun State as the clock tick towards July 16. To set a sense of relief,rumour had it yesterday that there is likelihood that the rancour between Governor Gboyega Oyetola and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola has been put to rest. While the veracity of the information of the information hasn’t been proved yet,one should understand that behind every rumour there is Element of Truth.

Moreso, an Opposition Party that envision to take the Centre will appear more serious in actualizing its goals and objectives and shy itself away from this kind of Sickle Cell tactics.

The Power of Incumbency both at the Centre and at the State level coupled with Tinubu’s emergence as the Party Presidential Flag bearer of the Party come 2023 with the fact that APC at the National level appears to be in unity since the end of the Presidential Primary Election not minding states internal fractions will contribute so much come July 16 2022 Election. The internal crack and fraction that follows the Party Primary Election both at the National and State level including the Leadership tussles of the PDP in Southwest between Governor Seyi Makinde faction and Former Governor of Ekiti State, Ayodele Fayose still appears unsolved and there is never a sign of it getting resolves anytime soon. If the PDP must win the upcoming Osun State Gubernatorial Election there appears to be loads of hurdles to cross.