The APC permutations with Osinbajo -By Jim Unah

Contrary to expectations that General Mohammadu Buhari would pick either the Edo State Governor, His Excellency, Mr. Adams Oshiomhole, or the embattled Rivers State Governor, His Excellency, Mr. Chibuike Amaechi, as his running mate, the All Progressives Congress—APC—came up with what appears to be a master stroke with the choice of the easy-going, unobtrusive alumnus of the University of Lagos, accomplished scholar and legal luminary, and former Attorney-General and Commissioner of Justice of Lagos State, and a Pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God—RCCG—Professor Yemi Osinbajo.

It probably occurred to the APC and, perhaps, rightly so that the selection of Oshiomhole as Buhari’s running mate might have been too risky, seeing that he is a show case of the party for good performance, after Babatunde Raji Fashola of Lagos State, and with two or more years ahead for further contribution to the development of Edo State if he remained Governor. As they say, a bird in hand is worth more than several in the bush yet to be caught.

Likewise, the APC probably refused to pair Buhari with Amaechi, seeing that the latter might be perceived by the electorate as a ploy of the opposition to rob it in hard on President Goodluck Jonathan rather than a deliberate choice for the delivery of good governance to Nigerians, and that would be counter-productive. Besides, what quantity of votes could be garnered by the APC with the choice of such a man with a lot of baggage considering that Mr. President who is the standard flag bearer of the ruling party as Amaechi’s kinsman in the south-south is more likely to collect a block vote from that zone, if a block vote is possible?

Thus, it would appear that the consideration of the quantity of votes to be collected from Buhari’s running mate was the deciding factor in the choice of Osinbajo. But then, what are the permutations? First, it might be necessary to correct the impression being held in some quarters that the legal luminary is not a right choice because he is an unknown quantity and thus not a frontline politician to pull any weight. No one knew Fashola before he emerged as Governor of Lagos State. Again, who knew Namadi Sambo before he was selected in 2011 as running mate to Goodluck Jonathan? Both Sambo and Fashola were not controversial persons before they were selected as presidential running mate and governor, respectively. This is critical in the APC permutation with Osinbajo. The less politically exposed and controversial a candidate is, the better the chances of the party.

A critical factor in the APC permutation is that Osinbajo is visible in Pentecostal Christian ecumenism now sweeping across the country like locusts. The Christian voter population is quite large and tempting. Not even a die-hard atheist or fundamentalist could risk ignoring the impact of such a large Christian population! Besides, the tension brewing in some quarters that the General’s utterances have been interpreted or misinterpreted as fundamentalist coupled with the rumour that he might Islamize the who country, needed to be doused by the APC. In this regard, Osinbajo is a brilliant choice.

Another critical permutation of the APC in the Osinbajo choice is that the Yoruba votes—of the south west—is quite large and also very tempting. Anyone would ignore that only to his own peril. This is where the Osinbajo factor could be a game changer for the APC. Neither Oshiomhole nor Amaechi or both put together could boast of such a large number of ethnic population votes, assuming that a block vote from an ethnic nationality is possible and that such a vote would go to the APC and not to the ruling PDP. If such a block vote is possible, who better could pull it if not a running mate?

In all of this permutations, something has to be said for Asiwaju Bola Tinubu—the APC Chieftain and master politician. Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola was his Chief of Staff at the time he was governor of Lagos State. He saw Fashola as a dependable and trustworthy ally. Tinubu chose Fashola to succeed him as governor and it has worked like good medicine. Osinbajo was Tinubu’s Commissioner of Justice when he was governor. Now, he has chosen and anointed him as running mate to General Buhari for the 2015 February election. Isn’t there a pattern emerging here?

The difficulty here is the continuous cruel massacre of Christians and some “infidel” Muslims by the insurgents in the north eastern part of the country about which the predominantly Christian south feel profoundly wounded and for which they bitterly agonize. Would the Osinbajo factor obliterate and soothe that wound and pain? Does the savvy Asiwaju have an answer to this poser or is an answer forthcoming from any other quarter to reassure Nigerians that they would never again be massacred in their own country, no matter who becomes president?

That is the crux of the matter and the ultimate game changer.