Tinubu’s Utterances And The Consequences On APC And On 2023 Politics -By Aliyu Danladi

Angered by recent developments in the ruling All Progressives Congress to sideline him as the ticket-bearer for the 2023 presidential election, and perceived betrayal from his political allies and “boys”, including Gov. Dapo Abiodun, Tinubu made an outburst of remarks yesterday in Abeokuta. The utterances, however, will have far more consequences on the party, on his aspiration, and on 2023 elections than he would imagine.

1. The first mistake Tinubu made was in publicizing those utterances. He feared an ongoing plot to oust him as the “right” ticket-bearer. As the Party National Leader, he could have summoned all the stakeholders of the Party and reminded them of his sacrifices in a closed-door meeting. That, would have won him favour than venting on a public podium. The many stakeholders he has will be there to support him.
2. Tinubu has changed his image in the eyes of the Nigerian populace. From being viewed as a prudent, visionary, and selfless servant of the Nigerian state, who Buhari once commended to have dedicated his life to the “Nigerian Project”, Tinubu has showed that he had only tactically played out and built connections so that he would hold people to ramson when we would finally contest for president.
3. Tinubu wanted to appeal to moral conscience. By “saying for the first time” that Buhari wouldn’t have been president without his support, he wanted to woo Buhari and associates. I don’t think that would have the intended effect. Politicians easily forget favours and do not always resort to moral conscience. If Osinbajo would forget Tinubu’s nomination of his Vice Presidency and go on and contest against him, what do you think of Buhari? Tinubu made Osinbajo politically. Buhari, on the other hand, has had a strong base even before the merger. Therefore, such appeal will only work if it aligns with interest.
4. Tinubu should have solved the political crisis with his associates and within the Southwest tactfully. He should have found a way of resolving his camp such that would emerge the sole candidate and wouldn’t have to contend with the threat of a “son old enough to contest”. It seems Tinubu’s sense of superiority wants to work out against him. He has always thought everyone would play to his tune, unfortunately, or fortunately, Osinbajo and others, including Abiodun that endorsed him, proved Tinubu otherwise. Despite the claim he made Abiodun governor, the governor didn’t endorse him yesterday.
5. Tinubu’s sense of entitlement is ill-advised. If identifying with Buhari will work for him to clinch the primaries, will it help him in the general election? Buhari is no longer the popular “Baba” of the past. This is a time when APC aspirants don’t want to join their pictures with Buhari’s in posters.
   In addition, Nigerians might not appreciate Tinubu’s service to APC as a service to Nigeria. We have already witnessed massive decampings to other parties.
6. Muslim-Muslim ticket has been thought to be the only platform Tinubu will win if he emerges the ticket-bearer. It is believed that taking a popular Muslim from the North is the only calculation that will favour Tinubu. The combination has its consequences. However, it is widely believed to be the only way to make Tinubu more acceptable in the North owing to his liberal ideologies. Tinubu, has, however, blocked the possibility of a Muslim-Muslim ticket when he said that it was the factor that stopped him from being Buhari’s running mate. Therefore, he can not take a Muslim running mate even if it will favour his calculation. Other blocs will rise against it.
7. What if Tinubu does not clinch the ticket? The game will change for the APC, setting forth new tides to the already dynamic 2023 politics. Even if Tinubu does not decamp to another party and contest or support a candidate from another party, he won’t sacrifice and work for the APC as he had done before. Even if it is a Yoruba Southwest candidate that emerges. We know what it means APC without the wholesome support of Tinubu: increased chances of losing out.