PMB In Kano: Words,Deeds And Choices -By Ishaq Usman

Elections forthcoming elicits different feelings from different people. Some pray for miracles, others work for miracles and an esoteric segment always do work the miracles. 2015 marked a new dawn in Nigerian politics. It showed amongst other things,the rapid maturity of Nigeria’s democracy, the populace’s resolve to want be involved in democratic processes, the locality of Nigerian politics,the parallels between what is happening online and what happens offline and the various reasons why people vote. We’ve learnt quickly as a nation, how powerful our votes are and this is why 2019 elections will be very interesting.

President Muhammadu Buhari is a man that has inexplicably, to a befuddling degree,a cult following in the core North. His recent visit to Kano was a testament to this. So enchanted was he by the numbers that he quickly reminded the opposition about his political structure and populist popularism.

However,the greatest mistake APC will make is to be complacent. Everyday, more and more “Talakawas” are getting discontent with this government. Their hearts might be with PMB but the hunger in their stomachs calls for something articulating in opposition. A sizeable number of people will be lost to this. However, if the FG shows doggedness in improving the general welfare of the citizenry and uses 2018 to climax on major projects started as shown in the 2018 budget, new converts might be won and also,those worn out might or will be reminded of how good a group at governance can be if the head is willing. Revving up the anti corruption war and securing notable convictions will in no small measure boost their chances.

The PDP is still a house in disarray. Atiku’s defection will further worsen things. Was saw with so much laughter, the scorn and discontent on the faces of those who went to welcome him at the PDP headquarters. None of them as evidenced in the pictures, smiled. Atiku’s defection is more like a marriage of convenience. I kind of understand PDP’s dilemma though. Who else,apart from Atiku, has the “finational pull?”. Is it Fayose the clown?, Shekarau the noisemaker who can not win his home state of Kano,Bafarawa the national nobody or Sule Lamido the Jigawa Jagaban?Makarfi? How many Southerners know of the existence of that name? Who else comes to mind? Almost nobody at least for now. Atiku is more like their best choice. His political structure in the North has no rivalry in today’s PDP. His “finational pull” will help strengthen the strings at the other side. Atiku also needs PDP badly. Staying in the APC was akin to jeopardizing his ephemeral presidential ambition. 2015 primaries showed the quiet but huge national popularity of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as he beat Atiku,despite his financial superiority to 2nd place after Buhari. PDP needs his money and he needs their ticket. It’ll be interesting to see what other presidential aspirants will feel if Atiku finally wins the ticket. If contaptronomy wasn’t a cliché, I would have said something like ‘disarray further awaits PDP”.

Every election has this undying characteristic of birthing a ” He-is-good-but-needs-more-structure” following. Who else outside the main suspects have the structure PDP has? More so APC? Elections in Nigeria aren’t won by the best of brains. This should explain why we have snollygusters as governors. It is won to a large extent, by political structures. APC has done well to deepen its root in the South and East. Anambra elections changed the perception people held about PMB,Imo is an APC state, Ebonyi has a Buhari fanatic as governor, Delta has seen the sincerity of PMB’s stance in bettering their lives, Akwa Ibom’s governor is always seen around PMB and many more silent but deepening political moves. South is APC’s to loose however. With Tinubu and a committed Saraki,it shouldn’t be a problem.Even if Buhari wins 2019,it’ll be to a large extent, due to APC’s strong structure… and not necessarily performance.

It’ll be interesting to see how many people want this government out and their reasons for this. It’ll also be good to know how many people want the status quo maintained. Some will vote because of hatred. Some will vote because their preferred candidate will open the gates of illegality. Some will vote to disrupt things. Some will vote under the banner of ‘ABB’ political party. Anything But Buhari. An interesting elections awaits..

Ishaq Usman
Writer and Poet based in Kano. He can be reached @NajAlpharouque on Twitter.