Global Issues
Consensus has to be established first within ethnic groups before national unity can be achieved in Ethiopia -By Adem K. Abebe
When news broke of an alleged attempt to remove the security detail of Oromo activist and media mogul Jawar Mohammed, hundreds of his supporters flocked to his residence in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital and capital of the Oromia region. Jawar, who was one of the organisers of the Oromo protests that started in 2015 which ultimately led to the change in government in 2018, was provided security by the federal police after returning from exile last year.
The incident came on the heels of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed,
who is also leader of the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), accusing
unnamed media owners with foreign passports of fomenting instability, a
disguised attack on Jawar, who holds American citizenship and is
therefore not legally Ethiopian (as Ethiopia does not allow dual nationality).
Following the rise of Abiy to power, the Oromia regional state has
witnessed intense political contest among parties vying to win popular
support, which has resulted in increasing intraethnic tensions.
A similar rift in the Amhara regional state between different Amhara
political forces was the cause of the alleged attempted coup in June
this year that killed the president of the region.
Considering
Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post electoral system, which focuses electoral
contest at the district and regional level, intraethnic rivalry is
likely to intensify as the 2020 national elections approach. The system
incentivises parties to take combative political positions and embrace
ethnonationalism in a bid to present themselves as more ethnically
authentic.
These intraethnic tensions threaten the stability of
the country; curbing them is a fundamental precondition for moderating
interethnic politics and preserving national stability. Abiy has to work
on both levels to push for national unity.
In Ethiopia, the official recognition of ethnicity
as the principal instrument of political organisation was, perhaps,
inevitable considering that the armed groups that overthrew the
communist Derg regime in 1991 were organised along ethnic lines.
The principal armed group, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF),
merged first with the Ethiopian/Amhara National Democratic Movement
(ANDM – now ADP), and subsequently midwifed the formation of the Oromo
People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO – now ODP) and the Southern
Ethiopia Peoples’ Democratic Movement (SEPDM).
These groups formed a formal coalition called the
Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which came
to be dominated by the TPLF and eventually resulted in increasing
discontent among non-Tigre groups.
Following the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in August 2012,
TPLF’s hold on power started to loosen. Riding on the waves of popular
protests that started in October 2015, first in Oromia and subsequently
in Amhara regions, home to the two biggest ethnic groups, the OPDO and
ANDM started to assert their autonomy and ultimately joined forces to
orchestrate an internal party coup that brought Abiy to power in April
2018.
The manoeuvres that brought Abiy the premiership were a
continuation, rather than reversal, of the ethnic foundations of the
political, social and constitutional framework, with a strategic Oromo
and Amhara alliance unseating the dominant Tigre elite.
His rise to power positioned the Oromo at the centre of Ethiopian politics, but did not quell historical grievances over their perceived dispossession and victimisation at the hands of the historically dominant Amhara elites. Oromo ethnonationalists, therefore, continue to make demands, including “ownership” of the national capital as well as territorial claims over parts of Amhara region.
The rise of ethnonationalist forces and their opposition to more
moderate parties has caused tensions not only within the Oromo
community, but also within other ethnic groups in the country. They
threaten to exacerbate interethnic strife even further.
Abiy understands the potential dangers
of interethnic contestation and the importance of weaving a new,
inclusive, future-oriented Ethiopian narrative that recognises and seeks
to transcend past grievances. He has emphasised the role of all groups
in Ethiopia’s formation and resistance to colonialism, while
acknowledging its failings and historical injustices.
But he continues to face
strong criticism from Oromo ethnonationalists who accuse him of
belittling perceived past injustices, dispossession and humiliation of
Oromos.
Non-Oromos, notably Amhara ethnonationalists, in turn,
claim the prime minister is too soft on the Oromos, while reacting
strongly to perceived security threats involving other groups, including
the Somali, Amhara and Sidama.
Abiy’s desire to pull the
extremes to the centre through an unfamiliar (for the Ethiopian context)
politics of compromise resulted in a familiar outcome – everyone is
dissatisfied.
To try to address interethnic tensions, he is
currently pursuing the goal of transforming EPRDF-the-coalition to
EPRDF-the-party. This transition has faced stiff resistance from the
TPLF.
Nevertheless, the fate of the merger hinges more on
intra-ODP unity than on TPLF compliance. It is far from certain if there
is a thin, let alone, critical majority within the ODP that supports
the merger.
The recent incident involving Jawar and signs of rejection of Abiy and his philosophy of Medemer (an Amharic word for synergy, unity through recognition and cooperation) in Oromia are a manifestation of and may further encourage resistance to the merger.
Even if ODP manages to overcome the internal rift, policy differences
between ODP and ADP, including notably over Oromo claims of “ownership”
of Addis Ababa as well as Wallo areas, pose another hindrance. Any
compromise on these issues would weaken the two parties vis-a-vis
ethnonationalists in their respective regions who have taken strong
populist positions on these matters.
Meanwhile, the prime
minister has also embarked on building intraethnic consensus. In early
October, he mobilised the three prominent Oromo parties, namely, the
ODP, Oromo Federalist Congress and Oromo Liberation Front, to agree to
work together, which was seen in some corners as a putative
power-sharing arrangement.
Details remain sketchy and the meeting was
perhaps nothing more than a signal of willingness to engage further.
Nevertheless, the idea that dialogue and consensus must start among the
disparate political forces within each ethnic group, notably the Amhara
and Oromo, is profound. Each ethnic group must find peace within itself
before it can engage in dialogue and find peace with other groups.
Abiy has also suggested a possible shift to a
presidential system of government, replacing the current system where
parliament selects and can remove the prime minister.
It is
thought that the move could bolster the legitimacy of the state leader,
enable him to stand as a unifying figure in a divided society and widen
his executive powers.
There is nevertheless no historical,
normative or practical reason to suggest that a presidential system
would deliver such results more than a parliamentary system. A prime
minister with parliamentary support can wield more power than a
president with an unsupportive parliament – which is not an uncommon
occurrence in presidential systems.
Furthermore, trying to
build national unity around the popularity of a single political leader
can backfire. A presidential system significantly concentrates power in
the hands of the leader, weakening his party and making politics more
prone to ethnicisation.
A more reasonable move to help build
national cohesion would be to establish an electoral system of
proportional representation for regional legislative councils
(parliaments), which would ensure that smaller parties get seats
proportionate to their share of the regional vote and provide political
leverage to ethnic minorities.
In addition, the law may require
that a party that wins above a certain share of the votes in a region
would be entitled to a cabinet seat, and establish a salaried Leader of
Opposition position.
Other rules could provide that political
parties would be granted equitable access to state-owned media
throughout the year, beyond the short electoral cycle.
Establishing a proportional electoral system for
regional councils would not require constitutional amendment, which Abiy
has ruled out prior to planned elections, as it can be achieved through quick legislative processes.
Such change also would not burden the management of elections. In fact,
it would ease it by allowing the printing of regionwide electoral
ballots, rather than the districtwide ballots that the current electoral
system employs.
If pursued, this electoral system change would
temper the paradigmatic winner-takes-all politics and reduce the stakes
of electoral contest. This would enhance trust and confidence and
channel the energy and competition of the 2020 elections into heralding a
new culture of cooperative politics founded on the recognition of the
legitimacy of all political groups.